Will Bitcoin Crash Again? Next Price Cycle Could Be Tamer

The stock market crash brings Bitcoin deep down again.1000$ goes down in just one hour. next target is 8200$ to 8500$

The stock market crash brings Bitcoin deep down again.1000$ goes down in just one hour. next target is 8200$ to 8500$ submitted by cryptoallbot to cryptoall [link] [comments]

The stock market crash brings Bitcoin deep down again.1000$ goes down in just one hour. next target is 8200$ to 8500$

The stock market crash brings Bitcoin deep down again.1000$ goes down in just one hour. next target is 8200$ to 8500$ submitted by eventica to CryptoCurrencyTrading [link] [comments]

The stock market crash brings Bitcoin deep down again.1000$ goes down in just one hour. next target is 8200$ to 8500$

The stock market crash brings Bitcoin deep down again.1000$ goes down in just one hour. next target is 8200$ to 8500$ submitted by eventica to Crypto_Currency_News [link] [comments]

Bitcoin has crashed (-30%) SIX TIMES this year. Expecting 150% growth again in the next run, the next top is ~$30,000

Bitcoin has crashed (-30%) SIX TIMES this year. Expecting 150% growth again in the next run, the next top is ~$30,000 submitted by MrDrool to CryptoCurrency [link] [comments]

Will the next BTC bullrun crash quickly again because of BTC's inevitably higher fees and congested transactions? /r/Bitcoin

Will the next BTC bullrun crash quickly again because of BTC's inevitably higher fees and congested transactions? /Bitcoin submitted by ABitcoinAllBot to BitcoinAll [link] [comments]

Will the next BTC bullrun crash quickly again because of BTC's inevitably higher fees and congested transactions? /r/Bitcoin

Will the next BTC bullrun crash quickly again because of BTC's inevitably higher fees and congested transactions? /Bitcoin submitted by cryptoanalyticabot to cryptoall [link] [comments]

[uncensored-r/CryptoCurrency] Bitcoin has crashed (-30%) SIX TIMES this year. Expecting 150% growth again in the next run, the ...

The following post by MrDrool is being replicated because some comments within the post(but not the post itself) have been openly removed.
The original post can be found(in censored form) at this link:
np.reddit.com/ CryptoCurrency/comments/7lnarc
The original post's content was as follows:
https://i.redditmedia.com/GqQXD1Z4bEevB0h0Ty6nOXVnnmf7FQHqs8XSrwFCnHE.png?w=672&s=0e0622fd81d89a5863207a99d72048dc
submitted by censorship_notifier to noncensored_bitcoin [link] [comments]

I think I'm about done.

So, last wipe, I thoroughly enjoyed the game. I struggled until I got to about level 35ish, but eventually I got my bitcoin farm going (not full 50 GPU) and my booze generator going, and I was making some decent rubles.
I could buy decent gear, the scopes I wanted, the ammo I liked (which was rarely m995,7n37, or m61, btw). And then I could go in raid, do my quests, find items, kill players, take their stuff and leave. Or, I could die and lose all my gear, and it would sting, but not break me. But when I did raids, I almost ALWAYS stayed until <10 minutes remaining, sometimes even getting out with spare seconds left. Yes, by about level 45, I eventually started making more money than I could spend, but ONLY after 50 GPU's in the BC farm and booze generator combined.
Now this wipe, instead of enjoying the raids, I'm getting frustrated trying to find progression halting items. Then, when I do find them, I'm STRONGLY encouraged to turtle up, hide until the coast is clear behind counters or in bushes, then extract at 10:01. I'm also having to buy expensive weapons like SVD's to finish quests, which I had to do last wipe too, but my rouble flow was much much higher.
I can kill a 3 man squad, and make 200k, because their armor was zero'd out and too high cost to repair and their guns with all their fancy attachments are worth 75k. Or, I can die and lose about that much. There is no real risk/reward any more.
Then, when I'm having a particularly bad day dying, I can't even lean back on looting stuff like factory keys and fuel conditioners now, AND WHAT LITTLE BIT OF FIR I SELL HAS ATROCIOUS FEES. I sold 3 packs of bolts for 14k ea and the fee was 12k.
It's like BSG isn't even trying to micro adjust the game to dial back the ruble flow. Instead it's full on scorched earth. Only the people with the absolute best combat skills or the most time to rat around have the ability to make any decent money.
On top of that, I'm level 33 and JUST got my last FIR flash drive. I have crashed against the rocks to the tune of MILLIONS trying to get a LEDX and 3 FIR graphics cards from Interchange, thanks to RNG. I can't even start Shooter Born In Heaven, and I would be 3/4 done with it by now if I had it 10 levels ago.
I'm sure* 3/4 of the subreddit will come by to tell me to quit crying, git gud, it's hardcore, roubles are easy to make, its a BETA, etc..
Well here's my Beta feedback. The game isn't fun when I lose every ruble I scrape up trying to do quests with specific gun/armor requirements and finding FIR items in hotspots, and hiding to avoid losing those items, all while BSG -heavily- deflates the economy and punishes rule obeying players in the name of stamping out RMT.
*Left out a word.
Edit: let me just say, I don’t mean this as a personal attack towards Nikita or the other devs. It’s simply just my experience, and my thoughts. I don’t have answers on how to make the perfect balances and compromises, or fixes on RMT etc.
I just wish it had been publicized ahead of time, something like “Okay guys, next wipe we’re gonna experiment with making it real hard.”
Also I’ve gotten a lot of responses saying “you’re not supposed to run the best gear every raid.” And my reply is, my standard kit is a Vepr KM, 6B23 armor, a Ratnik helmet, and comtacs, with self made BP ammo from the hideout. I’ve just recently started adding TV10 armor rigs into the mix. I’m not a META player who has to have iglonik or M995 every raid. I’m not trying to say I want to do that either.
For one CONSTRUCTIVE bit, I feel like items should have two different FIR tags. One for flea/resell, one for quests, and the quest one staying if you died with it. That would make life better to me and to a very large population of power players.
Also, between FIR changes, reduced loot spawns, increased flea fees, reduced trader sell prices, any 1-2 of those are survivable but all of them together, with more to come I'm sure, are crushing. That's all I'm saying.
EDIT Again : I just saw what Jaegers giving for guns. THAT is nice. That makes up a little bit for the stuff like fuel conditioners.
submitted by killaho69 to EscapefromTarkov [link] [comments]

DDDD - The Rise of “Buy the Dip” Retail Investors and Why Another Crash Is Imminent

DDDD - The Rise of “Buy the Dip” Retail Investors and Why Another Crash Is Imminent
In this week's edition of DDDD (Data-driven DD), I'll be going over the real reason why we have been seeing a rally for the past few weeks, defying all logic and fundamentals - retail investors. We'll look into several data sets to see how retail interest in stock markets have reached record levels in the past few weeks, how this affected stock prices, and why we've most likely seen the top at this point, unless we see one of the "positive catalysts" that I mentioned in my previous post, which is unlikely (except for more news about Remdesivir).
Disclaimer - This is not financial advice, and a lot of the content below is my personal opinion. In fact, the numbers, facts, or explanations presented below could be wrong and be made up. Don't buy random options because some person on the internet says so; look at what happened to all the SPY 220p 4/17 bag holders. Do your own research and come to your own conclusions on what you should do with your own money, and how levered you want to be based on your personal risk tolerance.
Inspiration
Most people who know me personally know that I spend an unhealthy amount of my free time in finance and trading as a hobby, even competing in paper options trading competitions when I was in high school. A few weeks ago, I had a friend ask if he could call me because he just installed Robinhood and wanted to buy SPY puts after seeing everyone on wallstreetbets post gains posts from all the tendies they’ve made from their SPY puts. The problem was, he actually didn’t understand how options worked at all, and needed a thorough explanation about how options are priced, what strike prices and expiration dates mean, and what the right strategy to buying options are. That’s how I knew we were at the euphoria stage of buying SPY puts - it’s when dumb money starts to pour in, and people start buying securities because they see everyone else making money and they want in, even if they have no idea what they’re buying, and price becomes dislocated from fundementals. Sure enough, less than a week later, we started the bull rally that we are currently in. Bubbles are formed when people buy something not because of logic or even gut feeling, but when people who previously weren’t involved see their dumb neighbors make tons of money from it, and they don’t want to miss out.
A few days ago, I started getting questions from other friends about what stocks they should buy and if I thought something was a good investment. That inspired me to dig a bit deeper to see how many other people are thinking the same thing.
Data
Ever since March, we’ve seen an unprecedented amount of money pour into the stock market from retail investors.
Google Search Trends
\"what stock should I buy\" Google Trends 2004 - 2020
\"what stock should I buy\" Google Trends 12 months
\"stocks\" Google Trends 2004 - 2020
\"stocks\" Google Trends 12 months
Brokerage data
Robinhood SPY holders
\"Robinhood\" Google Trends 12 months
wallstreetbets' favorite broker Google Trends 12 months
Excerpt from E*Trade earnings statement
Excerpt from Schwab earnings statement
TD Ameritrade Excerpt
Media
cnbc.com Alexa rank
CNBC viewership & rankings
wallstreetbets comments / day

investing comments / day
Analysis
What we can see from Reddit numbers, Google Trends, and CNBC stats is that in between the first week of March and first week of April, we see a massive inflow of retail interest in the stock market. Not only that, but this inflow of interest is coming from all age cohorts, from internet-using Zoomers to TV-watching Boomers. Robinhood SPY holdings and earnings reports from E*Trade, TD Ameritrade, and Schwab have also all confirmed record numbers of new clients, number of trades, and assets. There’s something interesting going on if you look closer at the numbers. The numbers growth in brokers for designed for “less sophisticated” investors (i.e. Robinhood and E*Trade) are much larger than for real brokers (i.e. Schwab and Ameritrade). This implies that the record number of new users and trade volume is coming from dumb money. The numbers shown here only really apply to the US and Canada, but there’s also data to suggest that there’s also record numbers of foreign investors pouring money into the US stock market as well.
However, after the third week of March, we see the interest start to slowly decline and plateau, indicating that we probably have seen most of those new investors who wanted to have a long position in the market do so.
SPX daily
Rationale
Pretty much everything past this point is purely speculation, and isn’t really backed up by any solid data so take whatever I say here with a cup of salt. We could see from the graph that new investor interest started with the first bull trap we saw in the initial decline from early March, and peaking right after the end of the crash in March. So it would be fair to guess that we’re seeing a record amount of interest in the stock market from a “buy the dip” mentality, especially from Robinhood-using Millennials. Here’s a few points on my rationalization of this behavior, based on very weak anecdotal evidence
  • They missed out of their chance of getting in the stock market at the start of the bull market that happened at the end of 2009
  • They’ve all seen the stock market make record gains throughout their adult lives, but believing that the market might be overheated, they were waiting for a crash
  • Most of them have gotten towards the stage of their lives where they actually have some savings and can finally put some money aside for investments
  • This stock market crash seems like their once-in-a-decade opportunity that they’ve been waiting for, so everyone jumped in
  • Everyone’s stuck at their homes with vast amounts of unexpected free time on their hands
Most of these new investors got their first taste in the market near the bottom, and probably made some nice returns. Of course, since they didn’t know what they were doing, they probably put a very small amount of money at first, but after seeing a 10% return over one week, validating that maybe they do know something, they decide to slowly pour in more and more of their life savings. That’s what’s been fueling this bull market.
Sentiment & Magic Crayons
As I mentioned previously, this bull rally will keep going until enough bears convert to bulls. Markets go up when the amount of new bullish positions outnumber the amount of new bearish positions, and vice versa. Record amounts of new investors, who previously never held a position in the market before, fueled the bullish side of this equation, despite all the negative data that has come out and dislocating the price from fundamentals. All the smart money that was shorting the markets saw this happening, and flipped to become bulls because you don’t fight the trend, even if the trend doesn’t reflect reality.
From the data shown above, we can see new investor interest growth has started declining since mid March and started stagnating in early April. The declining volume in SPY since mid-March confirms this. That means, once the sentiment of the new retail investors starts to turn bearish, and everyone figures out how much the stocks they’re holding are really worth, another sell-off will begin. I’ve seen something very similar to this a few years ago with Bitcoin. Near the end of 2017, Bitcoin started to become mainstream and saw a flood of retail investors suddenly signing up for Coinbase (i.e. Robinhood) accounts and buying Bitcoin without actually understanding what it is and how it works. Suddenly everyone, from co-workers to grandparents, starts talking about Bitcoin and might have thrown a few thousand dollars into it. This appears to be a very similar parallel to what’s going on right now. Of course there’s differences here in that equities have an intrinsic value, although many of them have gone way above what they should be intrinsically worth, and the vast majority of retail investors don’t understand how to value companies. Then, during December, when people started thinking that the market was getting a bit overheated, some started taking their profits, and that’s when the prices crashed violently. This flip in sentiment now look like it has started with equities.
SPY daily
Technical Analysis, or magic crayons, is a discipline in finance that uses statistical analysis to predict market trends based on market sentiment. Of course, a lot of this is hand-wavy and is very subjective; two people doing TA on the same price history can end up getting opposite results, so TA should always be taken with a grain of salt and ideally be backed with underlying justification and not be blindly followed. In fact, I’ve since corrected the ascending wedge I had on SPY since my last post since this new wedge is a better fit for the new trading data.
There’s a few things going on in this chart. The entire bull rally we’ve had since the lows can be modelled using a rising wedge. This is a pattern where there is a convergence of a rising support and resistance trendline, along with falling volume. This indicates a slow decline in net bullish sentiment with investors, with smaller and smaller upside after each bounce off the support until it hits a resistance. The smaller the bounces, the less bullish investors are. When the bearish sentiment takes over across investors, the price breaks below this wedge - a breakdown, and indicates a start of another downtrend.
This happened when the wedge hit resistance at around 293, which is around the same price as the 200 day moving average, the 62% retracement (considered to be the upper bound of a bull trap), and a price level that acted as a support and resistance throughout 2019. The fact that it gapped down to break this wedge is also a strong signal, indicating a sudden swing in investor sentiment overnight. The volume of the break down also broke the downwards trend of volume we’ve had since the beginning of the bull rally, indicating a sudden surge of people selling their shares. This doesn’t necessarily mean that we will go straight from here, and I personally think that we will see the completion of a heads-and-shoulders pattern complete before SPY goes below 274, which in itself is a strong support level. In other words, SPY might go from 282 -> 274 -> 284 -> 274 before breaking the 274 support level.
VIX Daily
Doing TA is already sketchy, and doing TA on something like VIX is even more sketchy, but I found this interesting so I’ll mention it. Since the start of the bull rally, we’ve had VIX inside a descending channel. With the breakdown we had in SPY yesterday, VIX has also gapped up to have a breakout from this channel, indicating that we may see future volatility in the next week or so.
Putting Everything Together
Finally, we get to my thesis. This entire bull rally has been fueled by new retail investors buying the dip, bringing the stock price to euphoric levels. Over the past few weeks, we’ve been seeing the people waiting at the sidelines for years to get into the stock market slowly FOMO into the rally in smaller and smaller volumes, while the smart money have been locking in their profits at an even slower rate - hence an ascending wedge. As the amount of new retail interest in the stock market started slowed down, the amount of new bulls started to decline. It looks like Friday might have been the start of the bearish sentiment taking over, meaning it’s likely that 293 was the top, unless any significant bullish events happen in the next two weeks like a fourth round of stimulus, in which case we might see 300. This doesn’t mean we’ll instantly go back to circuit breakers on Monday, and we might see 282 -> 274 -> 284 -> 274 happen before panic, this time by the first-time investors, eventually bringing us down towards SPY 180.
tldr; we've reached the top
EDIT - I'll keep a my live thoughts here as we move throughout this week in case anyone's still reading this and interested.
5/4 8PM - /ES was red last night but steadily climbed, which was expected since 1h RSI was borderline oversold, leaving us to a slightly green day. /ES looks like it has momentum going up, but is approaching towards overbought territory now. Expecting it to go towards 284 (possibly where we'll open tomorrow) and bouncing back down from that price level
5/5 Market Open - Well there goes my price target. I guess at this point it might go up to 293 again, but will need a lot of momentum to push back there to 300. Seems like this is being driven by oil prices skyrocketing.
5/5 3:50PM - Volume for the upwards price action had very little volume behind it. Seeing a selloff EOD today, could go either way although I have a bearish bias. Going to hold cash until it goes towards one end of the 274-293 channel (see last week's thesis). Still believe that we will see it drop below 274 next week, but we might be moving sideways in the channel this week and a bit of next week before that happens. Plan for tomorrow is buy short dated puts if open < 285. Otherwise, wait till it goes to 293 before buying those puts
5/5 6PM - What we saw today could be a false breakout above 284. Need tomorrow to open below 285 for that to be confirmed. If so, my original thesis of it going back down to 274 before bouncing back up will still be in play.
5/6 EOD - Wasn't a false breakout. Looks like it's still forming the head-and-shoulders pattern mentioned before, but 288 instead of 284 as the level. Still not sure yet so I'm personally going to be holding cash and waiting this out for the next few days. Will enter into short positions if we either go near 293 again or drop below 270. Might look into VIX calls if VIX goes down near 30.
5/7 Market Open - Still waiting. If we break 289 we're probably heading to 293. I'll make my entry to short positions when we hit that a second time. There's very little bullish momentum left (see MACD 1D), so if we hit 293 and then drop back down, we'll have a MACD crossover event which many traders and algos use as a sell signal. Oil is doing some weird shit.
5/7 Noon - Looks like we're headed to 293. Picked up VIX 32.5c 5/27 since VIX is near 30.
5/7 11PM - /ES is hovering right above 2910, with 4h and 1h charts are bullish from MACD and 1h is almost overbought in RSI. Unless something dramatic happens we'll probably hit near 293 tomorrow, which is where I'll get some SPY puts. We might drop down before ever touching it, or go all the way to 295 (like last time) during the day, but expecting it to close at or below 293. After that I'm expecting a gap down Monday as we start the final leg down next week towards 274. Expecting 1D MACD to crossover in the final leg down, which will be a signal for bears to take over and institutions / day traders will start selling again
5/8 Market Open - Plan is to wait till a good entry today, either when technicals looks good or we hit 293, and then buy some SPY June 285p and July 275p
5/8 Noon - Everything still going according to plan. Most likely going to slowly inch towards 293 by EOD. Will probably pick up SPY puts and more VIX calls at power hour (3 - 4PM). Monday will probably gap down, although there's a small chance of one more green / sideways day before that happens if we have bullish catalysts on the weekend.
5/8 3:55PM - SPY at 292.60. This is probably going to be the closest we get to 293. Bought SPY 290-260 6/19 debit spreads and 292-272 5/15 debit spreads, as well as doubling down on VIX calls from yesterday, decreasing my cost basis. Still looks like there's room for one more green day on Monday, so I left some money on the side to double down if that's the case, although it's more likely than not we won't get there.
5/8 EOD - Looks like we barely touched 293 exactly AH before rebounding down. Too bad you can't buy options AH, but more convinced we'll see a gap down on Monday. Going to work on another post over the weekend and do my updates there. Have a great weekend everyone!
submitted by ASoftEngStudent to wallstreetbets [link] [comments]

I found a tape I wasn’t supposed to listen to.

I plan on destroying this laptop after posting this and will soon be untraceable. I am reaching out because something is not right. I feel as if something just is not lining up right in the universe. I feel like I am out of place. I come to post because I am not sure how much longer I have. I was taking the trash out last week and I think I saw something I should not have. It was a full moon that night and I was doing my regular chores. Feed the dogs, clean the dishes, take the trash out. Easy stuff like any other night. When I got to the dumpster I saw a cassette player on the ground looking like it was to be thrown out. I thought to myself it was just trash but something caught my eye. There was a piece of tape on it with a sharpie written across it. It stated "LISTEN URGENT" so I put it in my pocket and took it home.
If I knew what was on that tape I would have not brought it home that night. I didn't have a pair of headphones to listen to it with or at least didn't care to look for one at the time. I had put the tape down on my desk and went to play some video games without thinking much of it at the time. You see I didn't have much going for me. My mother was a single mom and I was the man of the house. I liked to play video games because that is what made me happy. It was getting late so I turned off my monitor and went to bed.
I woke up the next morning thinking about the tape because I had a dream about it the night before. The dream consists of me going to the trash and finding the cassette tape then someone getting out of their car when I was walking home pushing me down and taking the tape from me. It was a man with a black overcoat but couldn't see much of his face since it was dark out. And as soon as he took it I woke up. I thought to myself that having a dream of it already had to mean something so I found some headphones and plugged them into the aux input and pressed play.
"What did you see that night" A man asked
"I was super drunk and all I remember was seeing some guy beat the shit out of some other guy outside the bar." A women said
"Where did this take place? The man asked
"In the alley besides the bar.... Can I please go now?" The women proclaimed.
"No, not yet we have some more questions for you..." The man said
"What was that?" The man asked
You could hear a crash or something and the tape cut out. What the fuck was I listening to? An interrogation with the police? All I know is there is more on the tape and I definitely shouldn't be listening to this. I clicked skip and play again and it started back up.
"Where were we... Sorry about the inconvenience miss." The man smirked
"Who are you guys anyways? The cops?" The women asked.
"Ahaha very funny... she thinks were the feds..." The man talking to his partner.
"You guys aren't the police???" "Then who are you guys?" The women starting to panic
"We are the guys they call when shit gets bad." The man said
"I think we are finished here... just state your name and age and your good to go."
"OK... Carly Johnson, 23"
Tape Ends
Who the fuck were they? Who is this girl Carly... I thought to myself what this tape was doing with me. I looked up this girl's name and I didn't believe my eyes. Here I am looking at her obituary. She died weeks ago. Cause of death: Suicide.
Where do I begin. I just heard a tape of seems to be the police interrogating Carly and she all of sudden kills herself what the actual fuck. I guess these are the guys they call when shit gets bad. It says she jumped over a bridge in the town over from me at midnight. Why would a girl just do this out of nowhere and sounded decently happy on the tape. But then I saw one last thing on her obituary... it said "There was no body found. She had left a note." So she went missing huh and they ruled it off as a suicide. I went back to the tape and to my surprise it had corrupted and I couldn't play anything back. Just great. I wanted to know who these guys were? Why did they want to talk to Carly? Why did Carly all of sudden disappear?
This was all so hard to wrap my head around. None of this should be my business but somehow I feel like it is. I never even knew Carly but some way I feel like I did. Weird right. Maybe you can tell me if I'm nuts or if it's humane to feel this way. I had another dream last night and to my surprise it had to do with the tape again. But this time it was very strange. I was on the bridge where Carly apparently did what she did and there was something on the ground in the middle of the bridge and I couldn't really make out what it was so I walked over and it was the same tape except the writing on it this time was "They did this." I then rubbed my eyes and woke up in a ton of sweat. So is this supposed to be a sign or something? Like what are these nightmares supposed to mean? I still am wondering who the men were that were talking with Carly. I started looking up cases of bar fights or anything to do with fights relevant to a bar. To my surprise I found the case. Case # 06-123 Bar stabbing leaving man dead. Looks like it was big in the local news. I do not watch the news much but now I know what they were talking to Carly about. This was much bigger than I thought. This is still an open investigation. I was skimming over the reports and one of the officers said that a private sector of the FBI would be taking over the case and no more was to be discussed publicly until the case is closed.
A private sector of the FBI is now involved what the fuck. In this tiny ass town the FBI is getting involved. This is all so much to take in. Seems like there is more to it though. The FBI got involved with some little stabbing at a bar. The news article said if there is any information to help the case to contact the link that was shared underneath the article. I clicked the link and it brought me to some government website to report tips or some bullshit. I started to read and it said "If there is any information on this case please contact this phone number [DISCLOSED INFORMATION]. I then read it said if anyone knew of a missing cassette tape that it is crucial to the investigation and no more information was shared after that. So wonderful, I now know that I am holding a crucial part of evidence of a case for the FBI and the contents were corrupted. I don't know what to do at this point... I still am going to be doing my research and I plan on getting rid of this cassette tape. I will be updating this post as soon as more information is shared or I find something. In the meanwhile I need to stay on the low because there could be and will be people looking for me and what I have acquired.
Ill post an update in 24 hours. Until then, Goodbye.
Update 2
I only got a few hours of sleep last night... thoughts running through my head constantly. I promised an update and here it is. I have been thinking of what to do with this tape. I think the best option would be to get rid of it but I think that would be a felony or something so that options off the list. The second option I have is to give it to them. Yes, I know it sounds crazy absolute delusional you might say. OK let me stop you right there. The plan is to drop it off at a discrete location and call in an anonymous tip. Seems easy right. I hope. I have wiped off all my prints on it and ripped off the tape on the front of it. I am going to go to a gas station about 45 minutes away from here. There should be a payphone and the angle the cameras are at should not see me if I pull my car up to the left of the building. I will wear gloves for prints and wear a hoodie. I should be fine, no evidence that I was there with the tape. I will get back to you after the job is done. Wish me luck.
Update 3
So it went exactly like planned. I parked my car where there was no surveillance and got out with my black hoodie and called the number that I saw online. I said "The cassette tape is in the bathroom of the gas station for case # 06-123 and hung up. I got out of there as fast as possible. I am now home and well. I am still curious and looking into Carly. I think I came upon something. It is very unusual. Her mother wrote a Facebook post saying "I know those cops are fucking corrupt... they never even looked into her case!" I thought to myself how weird this is. Her own mother must have known something was up too. No body found, A bridge that no one was on that night. I know no one was on it because there was a detour for maintenance on the bridge that afternoon. The last thing that doesn't add up is someone had to write on that tape stating LISTEN URGENT. If they were police wouldn't that tape be in evidence or something. Correct me if I'm wrong but this shit doesn't just go missing and wind up at my dumpster. I have a feeling that the bridge is one of the places that I will find something leading me to what happened to Carly and why the FBI are involved. I am going to take a drive to that bridge and see if I can find anything. I'll update you when I get back.
Update 4
I think I came upon something I wasn't supposed to once again... I found a necklace underneath the bridge. Here is a picture of what I found. necklace You see I don't think the police actually investigated or they would have already found this. Still we aren't even dealing with the local police anymore we are dealing with some special sector of the FBI. I also found one other thing and I feel as if posting a picture would compromise this second tape I found. I have not brought my headphones with me but have a feeling whatever is on this second tape that it will be great. I am very concerned about Carly and what happened to her. Maybe she is on this tape again, maybe it will lead me somewhere. If I post this on reddit I have a feeling the FBI will be notified or something like that. So for precautionary reasons I will not give the name of the bridge or any locations further that could potentially fuck this up. I plan on digging deep and will share it all with you. Why does the FBI want something to do with some girls suicide?? Who were those men on the tape???? Moments ago I just got a call from a blocked caller... I declined the call because I never normally accept blocked caller ids. They left a message. He said
"Turn your eyes away from this or else... You have been warned." ENDS CALL
I am very frustrated right now because they somehow found my phone number. I thought I took all the precautionary measures. I guess the government is always watching though. My feeling is that I will have to get rid of everything that ties me to this case. I have looked up how to destroy a hard drive and it is as easy as swiping a strong magnet over it.
I want to mention to whoever is reading this that if you know who Carly Johnson is and or have any clues on what happened to her please indulge me. Do not share anything with anyone else except my account. You see you may not realize the full extent of this situation but, no need to worry. I will encrypt everything that is sent and no information will get out to the Federal Bureau of Investigation.
Should I be scared? Because I am terrified. I need to know these answers because I am so devoted already. I was just warned to stop looking into this. I have no idea how they got my phone number. I believe we are dealing with not just a suicide but, possibly a government cover up or something worse. If anyone has any tips on what I could possibly do that would help please comment, I can take all the help I can get. They will probably see this post and what I have discussed with you all. I am going to upload all my research onto a USB and slide a magnet over my computer's hard drive now. I will reach back with more news after I have found a secure location to proceed with my updates. Until then....
-Colin.
Update 5
So I am currently posting this on a burner phone that I recently bought. I have booked a motel room with cash and I will use their wifi with a VPN. I would like to first express that whoever called me yesterday that I will not stop until I get the answers I need. I am sure with whoever has been reading my recent posts that they wouldn’t like me to stop looking either. I will bring justice for Carly and her grieving mother. I know that the government has something to do with this. I have got some feedback saying that the bridge might have another tape possibly. To my surprise there was and I just listened to it. I’ll replay it for you.
[Play]
“Hello… I don’t have much time to say what I need to say. I recently found something and it needs to be shared with the world. My name is Carly Johnson…”
“They are really close right now… I can see their flashlights through the trees. I am under some type of bridge.”
“I have recently come upon a file that was on a USB which was sent to my house…. Its title is Project Sight and the public needs to be aware of what I found.”
“It has many many documents containing all sorts of stuff including Area 51, The Roswell Incident, and various pictures of these very tall what seems to be creatures. So many classified documents on this file.
“I have made a backup of the file and it is located in my g---
[Cuts out]
Well shit, we finally know what we are dealing with. They brought out the FBI because it is a national threat which is out there on that USB. What was she about to say… she cut out saying something that started with a g but I have no clue. I am going to need help with this one. Please give me your thoughts on where she may have hid the backup. I have a feeling that they will find it before I do. I need to find that USB before it gets destroyed. I am not staying another night at this motel. I am going to switch it up so it is hard to track my footprints. I will be ok with my funds for now because I transferred what I had left in my savings and converted it into bitcoin. Hopefully I don’t have to explain why I did that. Once I am done packing up here and on the road I will proceed with another update.
Update 6
I stopped at a local convenience store near me and got myself some snacks and water for the road. This blue raspberry Slurpee is pretty good right now. I wanted to go to a local library to proceed with my updates but none of them are open because of this whole quarantine thing. I am probably better off in the motels though. I backed up the tape to my USB and set a password on it so no one can access it. I most likely am a current threat to the FBI so I don’t know how long I will have to stay moving. My plan is eventually to bunker down somewhere but until then I need to keep moving. I also have this cheap laptop I brought to access files that I cant on my phone. I was looking more into Carly's assets through some public info websites and such, you can use Whitepages plus to get a lot on someone. You can access background checks and look into someone's past, It is pretty crazy what you can get on someone. I also was looking through her Facebook and found an older post with her dad working on a project car. Looks like one of those storage garages that you can rent. She doesn’t post much. All family related stuff and a couple friends. Guess she kept more to herself. I am curious about when she said it was called Project Sight. Why would they call this file that in specific? Who knows. Do you think it would be a good idea to talk to her mom? Probably not, now that I am thinking of it. The FBI is probably all over her house. Hmm wait a minute, I remember that her mother had a Facebook page. Maybe I’ll send her a message where we could maybe meet up or something in private. She probably would give insight on what Carly said on the tape. I pulled into a parking lot that seems to be pretty empty. I want to try and take a nap and maybe wake up with a new idea or something.
Update 7
Fuck me. A cop just woke me up by knocking on my window…
“Hello officer, is there a problem?”
“I don’t think there has to be one, are you a little tired?”
“Yeah, I pulled over in this parking lot to clear my head and take a little nap.”
“Gotcha, you got any Identification on you?”
“Yes sir, can I grab it out of my glove box?”
“Yes, just no sudden movements.”
“OK, here is my registration and proof of insurance as well as my I.D.”
“Thanks for being so cooperative, let me run your stuff and you’ll be on your way shortly.”
He went back to his vehicle and I don’t know what he is going to find. What if the FBI put a warrant out for me or something?! I am probably just super anxious because of this situation. They want to keep everything top secret so they won't involve the police. He just got out and is walking back now.
“Here you are *hands back documents*.... You're a little ways from home aren’t you?
“Yeah, my Aunt lives out here and I came out to visit her.”
“Alrighty, I don’t see a need to cite you or anything so I’ll leave you with a verbal warning so just try to sleep somewhere else next time … OK? “Thank you again… have a good one.”
Well that could have gone a lot worse. I looked up the mother's address and it is only an hour from me. I am going to call her by the name Catie from now on. I made a Facebook account with this burner and messaged Catie on messenger saying “I know what happened to your daughter Carly… they faked it.” [SENT] Hopefully she sees this soon and we can chat a little bit and hopefully it helps to find that backup.
Update 8
So she read my message a moment ago and responded with “Who are you?” I responded with “Meet me at the Franksville park in 20 minutes, I am here to help not hurt. Please do not bring the police… they covered this up.” I am already parked here where I can see the parking lot but no one will be able to clearly see me staking it out. If the police roll up to the park I will exit through the back. If she comes and she is in a black jeep then I will text her again telling her to go to the bench across from her and wait for me. Hopefully all goes to plan.
[20 minutes later]
Great, she just pulled up and no cops. I messaged her the message and am waiting for her to do as directed. I talked to her for a while, probably a good half hour. I wrote down what I thought were the most important things she said.
“Father was a military officer”
“Dropped out of college”
“Top of her class”
“Public storage garage”
“Police searched Carly's house without proper consent”
“Computer and journal missing”
This was the farthest I have been in this case. Now that whoever is watching just know that I am currently one step ahead of you in every way now. I have developed different plans based on what might happen and every possible outcome and how to counter the bureau. I may not have the man power the FBI does, but I do have more knowledge now. So just know
I am coming for you … I will ruin you.
I am now taking the cellphone battery out and disposing of it. Until the next update….
Goodbye.
-Colin
Update 9
A lot happened yesterday, first of all it was mothers day. I was debating if I should go back to my moms house because someone could be posted out front waiting for me to return. I was wrong and the night went well. I left around 9 pm to find this USB. Someone that wants to remain anonymous direct messaged me and said they thought that the storage unit might be where she put the backup. I looked into it. I knew the number which I will not say for my own protection but Catie gave me the number of the storage garage. She said that she never had the key but she helped enough and that wouldn't be a problem for me. I went to the main office of the storage rentals and bought myself one near Carly's garage. This way I can have access to the property without suspicion. One thing that is really beneficial to having a pass code to the main gate now is that I can come whenever I choose. This place is 24 hour service. OK so now that I have developed a plan on how to get in now, I need to pick her lock.
It should be pretty easy if there are no cameras and if no one is working. I haven't really scoped anything out for assurances but hopefully it all goes to plan. On a side note I have been contacted again by that number, they sent me a picture of my car ... my actual car ... Shit. OK so they most definitely are watching me but that was from last night so I don't know if they are currently. If I do post this post just know that I am safe and have acquired the USB hopefully. I am going to take bolt cutters and a hammer to see if I can just break the tiny lock to get in. I will update you when I am back.
Update 10
OK I am going to choose my next choice of words very carefully. I found what I needed ... what I was looking for, for the last couple of days. I broke into the garage and there was this nice 1976 mustang cobra, what a beautiful car. I turned my phone's flashlight on and looked in the back of the garage. There was this tool box and I looked all through it, but didn't find anything in that. Next, I went to the car and it was open how fortunate ... I looked in the glove box and I found something. It was in this tiny envelope with the envelope saying "Insurance". OK I got what I came for and shut the door to the garage and left. I plugged the USB into my tiny laptop and it came up. First file "Project Sight", I clicked on it and 4 more files came up. 1st "Access point 51 [Classified]", 2nd file "Roswell, New Mexico [Classified]", 3rd file "JPEG File [Classified].
What was on these files I can't really describe. I need a little more time to wrap my head around all this information and figure out what to do with it. The weirdest of them all was the JPEG files, there were at least dozens of pictures that were all super blurry but mostly they all had one similar trait. At least 7 foot tall and a very large round head. They appeared to be a darker gray color and that's about all, The pictures were all in black and white though so that was not helpful. I need to know what to do with this USB. I think I am going to make a back up somewhere and place it somewhere where no one will find it. If these men do come for me I do not want them to win. So I set up some posts that will eventually post automatically within 48 hours of no account activity. I am still posting on a burner phone at the moment. All I ask if I go missing please don't let me end up like Carly. She said that this information needed to be shared with the world. I want to avenge her. The FBI will not get away with this. If these posts get deleted I have set up logs to be saved and they will all be backed up and reposted automatically as well. Nobody can stop that process too.
They know what type of car I drive and where I live. They know I have this classified information and will not stop until they get what they want. I don't want to die. I am scared for my own life and safety of my family at this point in time. At this time I am writing this on my phone, I can see a black SUV parked 4 cars to my left in the Walmart parking lot. It may just be my anxiety but there are two men sitting in the front. I may be dead within the next day or taken. Who put that fucking tape at my dumpster in the beginning? Was it them? Did they watch what I did everyday and find my daily routine and match that to when I would take the trash out? Could they have placed the tape at a spot I could visibly see all on purpose, knowing that I would pick it up and listen to it. All for what though? Why me? What is the point of going after a teenage kid? I might just be going crazy because of all this. I would like to express....
Whatever does happen to me, just know if you do find a cassette tape at the dumpster, don't play it.
Until next update,
-Colin
Note - My automatic posts I have set up go off in the next 48 hours of inactivity of the account. I have hid the USB and a GPS coordinate of where it is hidden will go out to someone that I trust very well.
submitted by idonthavemuchtime12 to creepypasta [link] [comments]

The Bitcoin Conspiracy (an enthusiast's perspective)

I keep coming across comments, especially in this sub, from people claiming that Bitcoin was created by the CIA or some government agency as part of the plan for the NWO and cashless society. I want to share my experience and try to clear up the confusion surrounding this topic.
I first got involved with Bitcoin in late 2016 when I heard about it and got some while at a libertarian festival. Back then it was still very popular among the agorist community and was being promoted as THE silver bullet that was going to disrupt the global fiat banking system.
Putting preconceptions aside, a new user might ask, "what's so special about Bitcoin? We already have digital currencies."
Well, you only need to read the first page of the whitepaper to discover what the original intent of Bitcoin was. It most definitely was not intended to be a tool for central banks to subjugate the world to a centralized global currency. Quite the opposite in fact. Read the full whitepaper here.
When I first learned about Bitcoin, it forced me to learn about economics, then the Federal Reserve, then one by one the dominoes fell and down the conspiracy rabbit hole I went. In 2017 (actually it started a few years earlier, but I wasn't paying attention back then) there was a very heated debate in the Bitcoin community regarding scaling.
I'll try to break it down simply:
In the very early days, when Bitcoin was just a project being worked on by a few very technical people, no one knew about it. All it took was a handful of people running the software on their laptops to mine new coins. Since there was not much computing power on the network, it meant there could easily be a spam attack where a malicious user could join the network and generate many gigabytes of spam transactions that would overload and crash the network. To prevent this, Satoshi implemented a limit of 1MB per block, to protect the network until there was enough computing power to be able to handle larger blocks.
This measure worked, and Bitcoin grew exponentially.
Satoshi vanished in 2010, after WikiLeaks attracted unwanted attention to the project by accepting Bitcoin donations. He left clear instructions for his successors that the 1MB block size limit was meant to be increased once the network could support high levels of user traffic. At the time, there still was not much use, so it wasn't until around 2014 that blocks started hitting the 1MB cap and all of a sudden users had to compete (by paying higher transaction fees) in order to get their transaction mined into the next block.
Up until then, sending a Bitcoin transaction would cost $0.0001 (hundredth of a penny) or less, no matter if you were sending $0.10 or $1,000,000. Now, since block space was limited, fees started to rise, as miners would only include the transactions with the highest fees. Over the next couple years, transaction fees went up dramatically, at times reaching as high as $100 to send a single transaction.
The solution was obvious - raise the block size limit.
But this led to a heated debate, and this is where the conspiracy became obvious to those who were paying attention. Since Bitcoin was decentralized and open source, anyone could contribute, but certain people controlled the commit access to the github repo, and it became apparent that those individuals had been compromised, as any and all mention of increasing the block size was met with fierce resistance.
There was a misinformation campaign to discredit anyone arguing for larger blocks. The argument was that larger blocks would mean users could not run the software on their low-power personal devices and laptops; that by increasing the block size it would lead to mining centralization. Well, if you read the whitepaper linked above, you'll see that Satoshi predicted this. He knew mining would eventually be left to "specialized server farms" while normal users could use what he termed Simplified Payment Verification (SPV) wallets.
But this point was consistently shot down in the community, and especially on /bitcoin. There was a MASSIVE censorship campaign in the bitcoin subreddit that continues to this day where anyone who questions the official narrative or even asks a basic technical question is immediately banned. /bitcoin today is nothing but a cesspit of price memes and misinformation. Go to /btc for the uncensored discussions (but beware of trolls).
In 2017 the debate was finally settled, sort of. Now known as "Bitcoin Core" (the name of the official Bitcoin software), the developers implemented a change known as SegWit (Segregated Witness) which fundamentally altered the way the software validates transactions. It was implemented as a "soft fork" rather than a "hard fork".
I'll explain the difference.
In a fork, the network comes to a consensus on new rules that all participants must follow. In a hard fork, the changes are non-backwards compatible, so all users must update their software or else be left behind on a dead network. Hard forks happen all the time in software development, but in the case of SegWit, the developers refused to make any non-backwards compatible changes for fear it might alienate users. Again, another unfounded fear. "We can't ever upgrade the technical capabilities of the network (such as the block size) because some people might not go along with it."
All kinds of mental gymnastics were performed to justify their refusal to increase the block size, and there was nothing anyone could do about it except fork as an independent project. The 1MB block limit is now essentially set in stone for BTC. So in August 2017, Bitcoin Cash (BCH) hard forked by increasing the block size limit to 8MB, along with some other changes.
Fast forward to December 2017 and Bitcoin was at its all time high of nearly $20,000. But fees were also astronomical and because of the 1MB block size limit, a huge backlog formed, and some people had to wait days or even weeks for their transaction to confirm. If anyone was trying to cash out into fiat and didn't want to pay a $100 transaction fee, by the time their transaction got confirmed the price had already crashed.
This event was largely responsible for the bear market of 2018. Everything that happened was predicted by those who knew what was going on.
A company called Blockstream had essentially wrestled control of Bitcoin from the original developers and shut them out or gained control over them, and started working on turning Bitcoin into a settlement layer for their product called Lightning Network.
LN is a complicated topic that I don't want to get into, but essentially it's a framework that recreates all the same problems inherent in the banking system that Bitcoin was meant to solve. Blockstream's goal is to profit from creating, and then "solving" those problems by charging users fees for all kinds of custodial services.
In my personal opinion, it's obvious that the original Bitcoin project has been hijacked and repurposed into a tool for the central banks. The propaganda is being pushed in some conspiracy circles that Bitcoin was created BY the central banks in order to discourage people from researching the true history. What is now commonly called "Bitcoin" is not the original project, but a Trojan horse.
The project that most closely follows the original design is Bitcoin Cash, and that is where almost all organic development is happening, and personally I feel that it's picking up steam lately as more people wake up to what's happening in the economy right now. Unfortunately most people are still unaware of how fundamentally broken BTC is now and so as new users run toward cryptocurrency to escape the dollar collapse, most will fall straight into the trap and be stuck with BTC that they won't be able to use without paying exorbitant fees and/or submitting to the very same tracking system they are trying to get away from.
This is a very deep rabbit hole but I think I've written enough for now. I hope this info helps people make sense of what's going on with Bitcoin. I know it's confusing enough even without so much deception taking place so hopefully this helps.
Read the Bitcoin FAQ over on /btc.
submitted by PM_ME_YOUR_ALTCOINS to conspiracy [link] [comments]

Warning: Blockchain difficulty adjustment affecting price movements

Below are notable difficulty adjustments when hash rate fell and block times become slower for Bitcoin.
  1. 26 Mar 2020 [difficulty adjustment -15.95%, avg block time 11min 54secs]. On the 28th price crashed from $6674 to $6138 ( -8%).
  2. 8 Nov 2019 [difficulty adjustment -7.1%, avg block time 10min 46secs]. On the same day price crashed from $9234 to $8783 ( -4.88%).
  3. The next big adjustment was around Nov to Dec 2018 and there were 3 big adjustments with high block times.

Current situation:
We are 1 day 10 hours from the next difficulty adjustment. Projected difficulty adjustment is -5.61% (https://fork.lol/pow/retarget), which could indicate a small dip. However, take note that the date of last adjustment was the 5th and the 3rd halving was on the 11th, between the 5th to the 11th there was increased hashrate from miners trying to mine the final week of 12.5btc that offset the really slow block times after the halving. Therefore it will be the next difficulty adjustment after the one on the 20th that will completely reflect the slower block times after the halving. Currently the median block time taken on the 17th was around 14min (-28.5% difficulty adjustment).
For people who do not understand blockchain, basically with the Bitcoin 3rd halving, mining profitability fell for a lot of miners and they probably turned off their miners therefore the blockchain mining time became considerably slower which is reflected with slow transaction speed and higher fees as seen currently. Bitcoin sellers moving their BTC from wallet to an exchange are faced with slow transaction speed and therefore the sell pressure of BTC fell considerably which will attribute to the current price increase. There is a correlation between sell pressure and blockchain congestion (the size of the correlation is undetermined).
There is going to be a race. A race between BTC price hiking high enough to attract more miners to reduce avg block times versus the closing window of roughly 2 weeks before the next difficulty adjustment. If the price does not jump high enough, the next difficulty adjustment in the first week of June could signal a huge dip.
I am not an expert. I just did some research on the above and wanted to share with fellow Bitcoin compatriots so that we can tread with caution and not lose our shirts. I do not plan to short BTC but I will exit my BTC positions if I expect double digit negative difficulty adjustment in early June.
Please visit the original post here https://www.reddit.com/Bitcoin/comments/gm23pe/warning_blockchain_difficulty_adjustment/
There are pictures in the original post as well as 2nd halving evidence with pics. I could not post pics here. If possible please upvote the original post, a lot of people downvote it. Not sure why people downvote it, maybe veterans attempting to hide information from newcomers to fleece them of their shirt.

Update 1:>! As of writing, I have opened a small short position on Bitcoin. Stop loss around 10k, estimated take profit around 8500. The reason is because the difficulty adjustment in the next 20 hours, even though is just -5% roughly is still significant. I direct you to look into all the difficulty adjustments in the last 2 years and you will know how rare it is. The ones I caught were all listed at the very top of the post. Since it is my first time shorting BTC, I take this as a learning opportunity so that I will have some experience to face the bigger difficulty adjustment in the first week of June. Analysis into execution, even in failure I am happy.!<
Update 2: The difficulty adjustment (DA) happened roughly 6 hours ago and the sell pressure from -6% DA did not seem to be affecting the market much. However, please take a look now at the estimation for the next DA.
On https://bitcoin.clarkmoody.com/dashboard/ it is estimated to be -25%.
On https://fork.lol/pow/retarget estimated to be -18%.
On https://www.blockchain.com/charts/median-confirmation-time the median block time for the last day was 16.8min.
My original proposition that the true DA of the halving can only be realized in the next DA stands and that it will be considerable. The increased sell pressure from that DA will be highly significant. That is why there is a race by current miners to get the BTC price up high enough to attract more miners to not have the DA drop too much.
Update 3: Current BTC price at $9100 ( ~39 hours after DA). Then again BTC could have dropped from all sorts of reason. However the coincidence with the DA and with all the past DA is just too high to simply shrug off as irrelevant. Anyways past result cannot predict future ones, stay safe with the trading. Will no longer check on this post.
References:
Difficulty adjustment dates taken from https://btc.com/stats/diff
Bitcoin graph history for price movement taken from coinmarketcap.
Median confirmation time (block time) taken from https://www.blockchain.com/charts/median-confirmation-time

Credits to people who assisted the analysis:
kairepaire for pointing out faster block times between 5th-11th.
babies_eater for https://fork.lol/pow/retarget
moes_tavern_wifi for https://bitcoin.clarkmoody.com/dashboard/
Pantamis for https://diff.cryptothis.com/
submitted by theforwardbrain to BitcoinMarkets [link] [comments]

From Conspiracy to Fact: An analysis of the COVID-19 Pandemic, Information Control, and the New World Order (Appendix includes hundreds of citations) - PART 1

UPDATE: This article is now available as a printable PDF with embedded hyperlinks for navigation through sources. This link will be valid thru July 9: https://ufile.io/4mpkg4x6

PLEASE NOTE: This article may be updated periodically with new information and links as they become available. All referenced information and a whole lot more is indexed and linked in the related appendix posts. Please feel free to crosspost, share, and take from my ideas to build your own. Namaste.
Part 1 | Part 2 | Appendix A | Appendix B

Hello. My name is Chris. I am nobody, really. An average citizen. I am an overweight 42 year old white male from the Midwestern suburbs of the US who has been fortunate enough to live a pretty comfortable life. I used to be a freelance graphic designer with a focus on small businesses, but I'm coming to terms with the fact that that career and part of my life is more than likely over in light of current events. Oh well, it was fun while it lasted.
I've always been concerned about social injustice and tried to stay politically informed, even dabbling in some activism here and there. At times I've stepped away from paying attention for my own mental health, or due to laziness, defeatism, whatever. But I've never stopped caring, or trying, to fight the good fight and do the right thing.
The news recently has of course swept us all up, and touched all our lives in some way or another. The world has never seen anything like the "Coronavirus Pandemic," and it's clear that our society will be changed forever when we finally come out the other end of this mess. But I've had the luxury of time recently, and in reading the news about things that were going on, I couldn't help but notice the patterns, and that a lot of stuff didn't exactly make sense.
So, here we go, with the "conspiracy theory."
I hate that term, because although it's technically accurate, it's been demonized and weaponized by the media and society at large to take on a bad connotation. Tinfoil hats, alien abductions, crazy people muttering to themselves, etc. You've no doubt got a lot of images in your mind of a conspiracy theorist.
And make no mistake, what I'm going to tell you here is all currently very popular conspiracy theory. However, I think that by removing opinions and conjecture from it, and focusing on facts and things that have already happened, I can present this huge amount of overwhelming, disparate information in a way that makes it less a "theory" and more a "research project." And so that is how I have approached this.
I have spent the last week doing little else besides reading every news and opinion article I could find, saving and organizing hundreds of links, and assembling a coherent, logical outline to organize and present these theories, and more importantly, facts. There are a lot of less-than-reputable sites and publications out there, and I have tried when at all possible to provide sources from verifiable news sites, with a wide range of slants and focuses, to illustrate that what is happening is not part of any one particular political agenda.
I hope that you take the time to check the links, really look into the information presented here, and form your own opinions. Please do not just take my word for it. To that end, there are also a few links mixed in that are labeled as having come from conspiracy. These are well-written and well-reasoned posts from other concerned citizens that I think are worth reading, and relevant to the discussion here.
One last thing - If you are new to most of these ideas, the information presented here is more than likely going to seem overwhelming at first. I encourage you now, and always, to take mental health breaks for yourself, and put down your phone or turn off your computer. The information will be here when you come back. And as you'll soon understand, what is happening is an unstoppable tide, truly a force of nature at this point, and there is nothing you can do to fight it, so try your hardest to relax, put on some chill music, hug your dog, and most of all...
BREATHE.
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
If you start researching conspiracy theory, you're going to find a lot of information. Some much better or worse presented than others, and some much more plausible or unbelievable than others. Despite the seeming ridiculousness of some things you might read, I encourage you to always approach new information with an open mind.
That said though, I have one main principle that guides all my beliefs about conspiracy theories, and that is the "Filter of Likelihood." Essentially, you have to ask yourself how possible, how likely, and how feasible a piece of information is. Furthermore, you need to ask yourself what the motivation would be. In many cases, it's quite easy to see how something makes a lot of sense based on other known info, whereas some theories seem rather implausible no matter how you look at it.
I am interested only in the plausible, and where possible, the already actualized. Additionally, there's a lot to be said, and a lot that has already been written on many of these topics, so I will focus on current events and simple concepts.
I will also ask you to open your mind to possibility. Please consider this as you evaluate new information:
  1. Do you believe there are things going on in the world that you don't know about yet?
  2. Do you believe that there is technology and science you've never heard of?
  3. Do you believe that society is progressing at an increasing rate?
  4. Do you believe that as populations grow, we require new societal strategies?
  5. Do you believe that those with power and money want to retain their power and money?
Of course you believe all these things, and none of these are wild or unusual concepts. Rather, these are very basic concepts that apply to everyone, and always have. They are all part of our shared human experience, and undeniable facts of life. Populations grow, societies evolve, technology advances, and the world changes. And most important to our discussion here, people, families, and empires constantly jockey for power and control, while fighting for resources, power, fame, and...
MONEY.
We all hate TicketMaster, right? Who do they think they are, what the hell is this bullshit "service fee," etc. It's something everyone can get behind. But did you know that TicketMaster willingly cultivates that image? That venues, teams, and artists, in their pursuit of more money, raise fees and then let TicketMaster be the bad guy and take the heat so their reputations remain intact?
There are many more people, organizations, and other entities in the world playing that same role for those who really have the money, who really call the shots. And those who call the shots work very hard and spend absolutely unfathomable amounts of money, time, and blood, to make sure that you don't ever realize who's actually taking your money.
They do this in the simplest, easiest way. If you simply control information from the top down, and disseminate it when and where you see fit, you can effect great societal change without lifting a finger.
Please imagine... really, try to imagine... You just read an article, saw a video, whatever, from a very, very reputable source. And it just informed you that an asteroid was 83% likely to impact the Earth next month. What would you do? What would happen in the world?
Hopefully an asteroid will not hit next month, but it's important to really imagine what would happen and why, and how. Because a huge amount of information would be generated and published, people would panic, society would crumble, and the world as you know it would change forever in an instant, the moment you read that headline.
Control of information is one of the most powerful tools known to mankind today. A person living in 2020 can easily encounter as much information in a day as someone in Medieval times might have encountered in a lifetime. And it comes at you from all angles, in all forms, non-stop, 24/7. Much like the water in the pipe, the information is always there, and one needs but turn it on.
Disseminating the information then becomes a practice all its own, and to be sure, information processing accounts for more than half of the US GDP. And the rate at which it's spread, and way it is handled makes a huge difference in the societal repercussions. So a few different techniques are used:
It might be the greatest understatement of all time to say that there has been a lot of information passed around about COVID-19, the "Coronavirus," recently. In fact, there has never been anything like what we are currently experiencing in all of human history, and not by a long shot. And this unprecedented turn of events has caused a lot of people to react in a lot of ways, and say and do a lot of things, for better or for worse.
Full disclosure: In particular, if you look up conspiracy theory, you'll see a lot of stuff suggesting that the "Coronavirus is a hoax." (You'll also find a lot of poorly-written rambling) I want to be clear that I DO NOT believe that. I am 100% sure that there is a Coronavirus, that it is making people sick, that a lot of people are dying, and that our medical professionals and many other undervalued workers are overwhelmed, and breaking their backs every day to do their best to keep their friends, families, and loved ones safe. I am extraordinarily grateful for them and admire the resolve and bravery that so many have shown in the face of this disaster. I do not think it is a hoax at all.
However, I think that literally everything else that is happening surrounding the "pandemic" is.
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
The Pandemic
In the first week of January this year, I got sick. Really sick. I know when I got it and who I got it from, and honestly the exact moment I got it (I only was in proximity of the dude for a few minutes). He had warned me that he was really sick, and I blew it off. I started feeling sick a day or two later, and a day or two after that I felt like I was dying. Fever, chills, aches, extraordinary fatigue. And literal, nonstop, 24/7 coughing. I had every single symptom of what we now know as COVID-19. I commented to anyone who would listen that I didn't recall ever feeling that sick before in my entire life. The most memorable part of it though was that after a couple days, I completely lost my sense of smell and taste. Joked a lot about how you could feed me onions and soap cause I'd have no idea. I try to have a good attitude about being sick.
I spent a week sleeping on the couch before I finally went to the doctor. She gave me a Prednisolone steroid pack (which has worked well for me in the past), some Trazodone to knock me out, and Benzonatotate for my cough. As soon as I took the first dose of steroids I started to feel pretty fucking great, and it was more or less a non-issue after that.
I spoke to a lot of people about it then and after, and man, I can't tell you how many stories I personally heard from people I know that said the exact same thing. Then I started reading the same story over and over again on Reddit:
We didn't start really hearing about the Coronavirus in the media until the beginning of March, and we didn't hear about the "Pandemic" until just a couple weeks ago. And what a couple weeks it's been since then. But I am quite certain that it's been around for a lot longer and that I, and a lot of other people I know, had it - and DID NOT DIE FROM IT - way back in January.
We now know that the first documented case in the US was on January 19th, but that word "documented" is so, so important here. That means that we had identified the virus, developed a test, and tested a person with the symptoms that day. It does NOT mean that was when the virus reached the United States. How sick do you have to be before you take a day off work? Before you go to the doctor? With America's healthcare system or lack thereof, it's almost certain that many people had this virus before we determined what it was, and how infectious it really was.
There is also the matter of the statistics of severity vs the regular flu. This is a highly contentious topic and I am no medical expert, and do not wish to make any assertions. However, what I can tell you from my personal experience is this: I had a horrible "flu" in January, got basic medicine, got better. So, either I had the flu, or perhaps I did indeed have the Coronavirus.
We will never know because I was never tested. But the important thing is that it doesn't matter. Either I (and many others) had the Coronavirus and it did not kill us (calling into question the severity of the infection) or we just had a bad cold or flu, but it had the exact same symptoms as COVID-19 (calling into question the extent of Coronavirus diagnoses). But logically, one of those two statements is true.
Furthermore, the data keeps changing, and I don't mean increasing on a daily basis. I mean up and down, back and forth, it is deadly or maybe it isn't, etc. On January 14 the WHO told you it couldn't spread from human to human. But then on Jan 19 we saw the first case of Coronavirus in the United States. Then it turns out that the Wuhan market outbreak began earlier in December. And then it's an "epidemic," but most people will only get mild symptoms. What are you supposed to believe? And it sure does seem to come at you as a firehose, and it's hard to even think about anything because OHMYGODTHECORONAVIRUS!
But let's stop and look a couple basic facts. As a matter of fact, I'm going to let Dr. Sucharit Bhakdi explain this one to you. This is a very informative 10 minute video, watch it:
Sucharit Bhakdi - Very clear math showing that the COVID statistics are being manipulated
So 80% of people only experience mild symptoms, and we're crashing the economy for this? The statistics aren't any more extreme than many other illnesses we've had over time, and we're crashing the economy for this? It doesn't make sense until you consider that there are other factors besides just the virus at play.
Wolfgang Wodard - Explaining how the statistics are being manipulated to cause panic
The media, and society at large is inundating you with terrifying information about the Coronavirus. But if it's not as bad as we originally thought, then why? We don't freak out about every illness that comes along, and we've certainly never in the history of civilization had over 1/3 of the global population locked down under mandatory quarantine.
And then there's the debate about where the virus came from. We believe it came from a meat market in China, under unsanitary conditions. The science behind a coronavirus making the leap from one species to another is well-established and researched, and it is a very likely scenario. There are also conspiracy theories that state that China released it on its people intentionally, or even that the US military released it in China. Again, we will never know exactly where this Coronavirus came from. It may be natural, it may be man made, and there are very plausible paths for both. I don't know what to believe myself. So here I ask you to make your own judgement based on likelihood.
What we do know though is that the state of the world this virus has been unleashed on has played a major factor in its spread. In 1950 the global population was 2.5 billion, and that has exploded to almost 8 billion people in 2020. As a matter of fact, population growth has been exponential since about the time of the Industrial Revolution.
With all these people on the planet there are sure to be many disagreements and conflicts, and there indeed have been. As a matter of fact, 2019 saw global protests on an unprecedented scale, in Hong Kong, France, Syria, and many other countries. Citizens have literally been fighting police and military with rocks, clubs, arrows, and molotov cocktails.
Did you know that? Despite my seeing headlines and pictures every day of the riots in Hong Kong, I have been shocked to learn that multiple of my close friends, intelligent and aware people, had no knowledge whatsoever of the protests even existing. But that is far from a coincidence; rather, it is quite by design.
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Billionaires and Coincidences
Another major talking point over the last 5 to 10 years has been the "1%" - the handful of super-rich individuals who posess and control the vast majority of the Earth's wealth and resources. Where it used to just be a numerical term, "Billionaire" is now a dirty word, and one of the nastiest. We all hate billionaires. They are evil, and profit off the exploitation of the rest of the world.
The "Illuminati" we call them, in pursuit of a "New World Order." Crazy stuff, right? Mysterious symbols and people in black robes doing nefarious things in secret meetings, and running the world from behind the scenes. We love the Illuminati, it's a huge pop culture thing now. The subject of endless speculation, they are made fun of in the media, movies, and now Taco Bell commercials. It's so far fetched it could never really be true. And the fact that you think that is by design as well.
So, we don't know where the Coronavirus came from, but it's certainly here, and there are lot of other things unfolding in the world around it. Many different current events from all different places and fields of study. Some of it seems a little too coincidental. It is certainly very coincidental that this economically destructive Coronavirus entered the world right as there were global uprisings, protests in the street, and a growing public hatred for billionaires.
Well, here are a few other coincidences: Hundreds of CEOs of major companies stepped down from their positions in recent months. Multiple US Senators sold stock right before the market crashed. Even the boss of the New York Stock Exchange sold his own stock right before the crash. Did they know something they weren't telling us?
Here's another coincidence. In 2010, The Rockefeller Foundation published a selection of future-predicting scenarios in the name of "exploring the ways that technology and development could co-evolve." One of these four scenarios, entitled "Lock Step," eerily predicts a global viral pandemic and the resulting hypothetical consequences, which almost exactly mirrors the COVID-19 pandemic we are in the midst of today.
Also coincidental: The first case of COVID-19 was diagnosed in China on November 17th, 2019. Literally one month earlier, The Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security in partnership with the World Economic Forum and the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation hosted Event 201, a high-level pandemic exercise on October 18, 2019, in New York, NY. In this exercise, they discuss the potential implications and consequences of a novel Coronavirus, including an economic crash, martial law, and of particular interest, the control of information. (You can view some published highlights here)
The World Economic Forum is comprised of the richest of the rich. The 1%. The Billionaires. CEO's, politicians, business owners, and many other powerful and influential figures. They meet regularly to discuss topics of global concern, and strongly control the dissemination of information. And of primary concern to many of them is maintaining their wealth and power in a rapidly-changing world.
And finally, here's one more coincidence: At the exact same time as the Event 201 exercise, The World Military Games was held in Wuhan, China, Oct 18-27, 2019. It was the largest military sports event ever to be held in China, with nearly 10,000 athletes from over 100 countries competing in 27 sports. Wuhan China was, as we now believe, the source of our current global COVID-19 outbreak.
Whether you think it is a "conspiracy" or not, that is all certainly coincidental, to say the least.
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
"Why didn't I hear about any of this?"
That's an excellent question, and one that likely has multiple answers. For starters, how much do you really pay attention? Where do you get your news from? Do you research things you hear or just accept them on hearsay? Critical thinking skills are paramount in making sense of the chaos unfolding all around us.
As I mentioned before, I can tell you that I personally know multiple people who had no clue whatsoever about the riots in Hong Kong last year. As you read this, you may be one of them. And it may seem like something that is happening far away, and "could never happen here." Or you may have been aware of it but just that it was happening. But please, consider for a moment: millions of average citizens risked their lives and safety in the streets of Hong Kong for months on end, fighting police and military, and transforming the city they lived in into a warzone. WHY? Why would people do something like that? Regardless of their motivations, that many people were banding together to fight for something they believed in. And that is worth considering.
It's not really your fault though that you may not catch wind of all this news. The "mainstream media" that you hear about all the time deliberately controls information - downplaying threats and overreacting to silly things - in order to make sure that you hear the version of the news that they want you to hear.
Did you know that only 6 corporations control 90% of the media In America? That number is reduced from 50 companies in the 80's. And literally all the news you see on TV, at the very least, is 100% owned and controlled by these companies. Lately, distrust is growing for cable news networks, and many people turn to their local hometown station for trusted news. The problem with that though is that your hometown station is probably owned by Sinclair Media, one of the most powerful broadcast networks in the country that you've never heard of.
Please watch this very brief video, illustrating the chokehold that Sinclair Media maintains over your nightly local news broadcast: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hWLjYJ4BzvI
Of course, not every piece of news is pre-programmed but a lot is. The real news is out there, but sometimes you have to look a little deeper than the infographics on TV news. Even if information is being directed from the top down, the boots on the ground tend to be passionate people with a variety of interests and agendas, and they are still doing their best to do real journalism despite corporate oversight.
Think of those who are directing the information as steering an impossibly massive ship with a rudder. You can slowly adjust the course of direction, however it is slow to react. If you want to stop, you have to start thinking about stopping wayyy ahead of time. And similarly, once it gets underway, it is then influenced by an inertia all its own. Micro controls and adjustments aren't really possible.
Our society is this giant ship. There are 8 billion people on this earth - that is 8000 million. An incomprehensible number that grows rapidly every day. As civilization grows and advances, so does our medicine, our technology, our cultural norms. These are all natural processes that are necessary to manage an increasing number of societies all around the globe. And many of the advances we're making have exciting potential benefits for humanity, although as with all tools, they also inherently possess the potential for abuse.
Here are some other things happening in society right now, some you may be aware of and many you may not:
There is an interesting chicken or egg relationship between science fiction and real world science. Sci-fi writers are inspired by the real science of the day, then they apply their creativity to imagine what might be in the future. Young scientists encounter these fantastical ideas and think they are worth pursuing, and then set about to make them a reality, and the cycle continues.
Futuristic concepts are then preempted and introduced through the media to the conscious mind, as we include them in books, movies, TV, video games, and more. Eventually we start seeing headlines of these new technologies and developments happening in other places, usually Japan and China first due to their prevalence in the industrial and technological sectors of our global economy.
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Continue to Part 2

submitted by SquarePeg37 to conspiracy [link] [comments]

Anybody starting to be sceptical about this whole halvening of Bitcoin?

There is this collective belief or expectation in the crypto world that Bitcoin will skyrocket, this narrative has gone on for weeks.
This makes me believe that Bitcoin will actually crash in price in the near future, but recover a few months later or even next year.
Famous Bitcoin hater Warren's quote comes to mind: “Be Fearful When Others Are Greedy and Greedy When Others Are Fearful".
I personally still believe Bitcoin will have an important role in the world economy in the future, it's not about that.
But then again, there's also the possibility of hyper inflation of the US dollar, since record levels of printing has gone on recently.
submitted by iwritecomment to CryptoCurrency [link] [comments]

Why do people listen to Raoul Pal?

I just found out about this guy. And when I found out about him, I had to keep digging. His theories sounded too stupid to actually be held by a respected investor—but they are.
He’s the definition of the broken clock. For years—decades—he’s been making incredibly bad predictions. He called crashes in 2011 (this article, 2015 (2015 crash, and several other calls that were totally wrong. Articles refer to him as they man who predicted the dollar rally’ or something complete bull badge of honor.
He’s also adamant that bonds are better than equities (how?) and just today said that bitcoin will be worth $1 million by next year. He says we’re going into a depression now and suggested that the market won’t recover for at least a decade. He’s once again calling a crash of 1929 proportions.
I keep seeing him as a guest or featured on prominent podcasts and articles, and yet what he’s saying makes absolutely no sense and he’s constantly wrong to the point of lunacy.
Can someone please help me understand why this person is respected at all? What am I missing here?
submitted by Pizza_Bagel_ to investing [link] [comments]

The White Dragon : A Canadian Dragon Portfolio

Alright guys, Ive been working on this for a while and a post on here by a guy describing his portfolio here was the final kick in the ass for me to put this together. I started writing this to summarize what Im doing for my friends who are beginners, and also for me to make some sense of it for myself
Hopefully parts of it are useful to you, and also ideally you guys can point out errors or have a suggestion or two. I'm posting this here as opposed to investing or canadianinvestor (blech) because they're just gonna tell me to buy an index fund.
This first section is a preamble describing the Canadian tax situation and why Im doing things the way that I am. Feel free to skip it if you dont care about that. Also, there might be mistake regarding what the laws are here so dont take my word for it and verify it for yourself please.
So here in Canada we have two types of registered accounts (theres actually more but whatver). There is the TFSA "Tax Free Savings Account", and RRSP "Registered Retirement Savings Account"
For the sake of simplicity, from the time you turn 18 you are allowed to deposit 5k (it changes year to year based on inflation etc)in each of them. That "room" accumulates retroactively, so if you haventdone anything and are starting today and you are 30 you have around 60k you can put in each of them. The prevailing wisdom is that you should max out the TFSA first and you'll see why in a minute.

TFSA is post tax deposits, with no capital gains or other taxes applied to selling your securities, dividends or anything else. You can withdraw your gains at any time, and the amount that you withdraw is added to the "room" you have for the next year. So lets say I maxed out my TFSA contributions and I take out 20k today, on January of next year I can put back in 20k plus the 5 or whatever they allow for that year. You can see how powerful this is. Theres a few limitations on what is eligable to be held in the TFSA such as bitcoin/bitcoin ETFs, overseas stocks that arent listed on NYSE, TSX, london and a few others. You can Buy to Open and Sell to Close call and put options as well as write Covered Calls.

The RRSP is pre-tax deposits and is a tax deferred scheme. You deposit to lower your income tax burden (and hopefully drop below a bracket) but once you retire you will be taxed on anything you pull out. Withdrawing early has huge penalties and isnt recommended. You are however allowed to borrow against it for a down payment as a first time home buyer. The strategy with these is that a youngperson entering the workforce is likely to be in a fairly low tax bracket and (hopefully) earns more money as they get older and more skilled so the RRSP has more value the greater your pre-taxincome is. You can also do this Self Directed. Its not relevant to this strategy but I included it for the sake of context.
Non registered accounts ( or any other situation, such as selling commercial real estate etc) is subject to a capital gains tax. In so far as I understand it, you add all your gains and losses up at the end of the year. If its a positive number, you cut that number IN HALF and add it to your regular pre-tax income. So if I made 60k from the dayjob and 20k on my margin account that adds up to 70k that I get taxed on. if its a loss, you carry that forward into the next year. Theres no distinction between long term and short term. Also physical PMs are treated differently and I'll fill that part in later once I have the details down.
The reason why all that babble is important is that my broker Questrade, which isnt as good as IB (the only real other option up here as far as Im aware) has one amazing feature that no other broker has: "Margin Power"
If you have a TFSA and a Margin account with them, you can link them together and have your securities in the TFSA collateralise your Margin account. Essentially, when it comes to the Maintenance Excess of the Margin Account QT doesnt care if its in the TFSA *or* the Margin!
You can see how powerful this is.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
So as you can tell by the title, a lot of this is heavily inspired by Chris Cole's paper "The Allegory of the Hawk and the Serpent". You can read it here: https://www.artemiscm.com/welcome#research
Between it, his interviews and my mediocre options skills at the time my mind was blown. Unfortunately I didnt know how to do the Long Volatility part until after the crash in March but I've since then had nothing but time to scour the internet and learn as much as I could.
The way I interpret this isnt necessarily "what you should have right now", but what abstracted model they were able to backtest that gave them the best performance over the 90 years. Also, a lot of my portfolio I already had before I started trying to build this.
As such my allocations dont match the proportions he gave. Not saying my allocations are better, just showing where they are at this time.
I'm going to describe how I do Long Volatility at the end rather than the beginning since the way *I* do it wont make sense until you see the rest of the portflio.

Physical PMs 22%
I'm not sure wether he intended this to be straight up physical gold or include miners and royalty streaming companies so I will just keep this as physical.
I consider Silver to be a non-expiring call option on gold, so that can live here too. I am actually *very* overweight silver and my strategy is to convert a large portion of it to gold (mostly my bars)
to gold as the ratio tightens up.
If youre into crypto, you can arguably say that has a place in this section.
If an ETF makes sense for part of your portfolio, I suggest the Sprott ones such as PHYS. Sprott is an honest business and they actually have the metal they say they have. If you have enough, you can redeem your shares from the Royal Canadian Mint. The only downside is that they dont have an options chain, so you cant sell covered calls etc. Simple enough I suppose.
One thing to bear in mind, there is a double edged sword with this class of assets. They're out of the system, theyre nobody's business but your own and theres no counter party. That
unfortunately means that you cant lever against it for margin or sell covered calls etc. You can still buy puts though (more on that later)

Commodity Trend (CTA) 10%
https://youtu.be/tac8sWPZW0w
Patrick Ceresna gave a good presentation on what this strategy is. Until I watched this video I just thought it meant "buy commodities". A real CTA does this with futures also so aside from the way he showed, there are two other ETFs that are worth looking at.
COM - This is an explicit trend following ETF that follows a LONG/FLAT strategy instead of LONG/SHORT on a pile of commodity futures. So if they get a "sell" signal for oil or soybeans they sell what they have and go to cash.
COMT- Holds an assortment of different month futures in different commodities, as well as a *lot* of various related shares in producers. Its almost a one stop shop commodities portfolio. Pays a respectable dividend in December
If you want to break the "rules" of CTA, and include equities theres a few others that are also worth looking at
KOL- This is a coal ETF. The problems with it are that a lot of the holdings dont have much to do with coal. One of them is a tractor company. A lot of the companies are Chinese so theres a bit of a red flag.
Obviously Thermal Coal, the kind used for heating and powerplants isnt in vogue and wont be moving forward...but coking coal is used for steel manufacturing and that ain't going anywhere. The dividend is huge, pays out in December. A very very small position might be worth the risk.
Uranium- I'm in URA because thats the only way for me to get exposure to Kazatoprom (#1 producer), which is 20% of the holdings. The other 20% is Cameco (#2 producer)and then its random stuff.
Other than that I have shares in Denison which seems like its a good business with some interesting projects underway. I'm still studying the uranium space so I dont really have much to say about it of any value.
RSX- Russia large caps. If you dont want to pick between the myriad of undervalued, high dividend paying commodity companies that Russia has then just grab this. It only pays in December but it has a liquid options chain so you can do Covered Calls in the meantime if you want.
NTR- Nutrien, canadian company that was formed when two others merged. They are now the worlds largest potash producer. Pretty good dividend. They have some financial difficulties and the stocks been in a downtrend forever. I feel its a good candidate to watch or sell some puts on.
I'm trying to come up with a way to play agriculture since this new phase we're going to be entering is likely to cause huge food shortages.

EURN and NAT- I got in fairly early on the Tanker hype before it was even hype as a way to short oil but I got greedy and lost a lot of my gains. I pared down my position and I'm staying for the dividend.
If you get an oil sell signal, this might be a way to play that still.

Fixed Income/Bonds 10%

Now, I am not a bond expert but unless youre doing some wacky spreads with futures or whatever... I dont see much reason to buy government debt any more. If you are, youre basically betting that they take rates negative. Raoul Pal of Real Vision is pretty firm in his conviction that this will happen. I know better than to argue with him but I dont see risk/reward as being of much value.
HOWEVER, I found two interesting ETFs that seem to bring something to this portfolio
IVOL- This is run by Nancy Davis, and is comprised of TIPS bonds which are nominally inflation protected (doubt its real inflation but whatever) overlayed with some OTC options that are designed to pay off big if the Fed loses control of the long end of the yield curve, which is what might happen during a real inflation situation. Pays out a decent yield monthly
TAIL- This is a simpler portfolio of 10yr treasuries with ladder of puts on the SPX. Pays quarterly.

Equities 58% (shared with options/volatility below)
This is where it gets interesting, obviously most of this is in mining shares but before I get to those I found some interesting stuff that I'm intending to build up as I pare down my miners when the time comes to start doing that.
VIRT- I cant remember where I saw this, but people were talking about this as a volatility play. Its not perfect, but look at the chart compared to SPY. Its a HFT/market making operation, the wackier things get the more pennies they can scalp. A 4% dividend isnt shabby either.
FUND- This is an interesting closed end fund run by Whitney George, one of the principals at Sprott. He took it with him when he joined the company. Ive read his reports and interviews and I really like his approach to value and investing. He's kind of like if Warren Buffett was a gold bug. Theres 120 holdings in there, mostly small caps and very diverse...chicken factories, ball bearings all kinds of boring ass shit that nobody knows exists. Whats crucial is that most of it "needs to exist". Between him, his family and other people at Sprott they control 40% or so of the shares, so they definitely have skin in the game. Generous dividend.
ZIG- This is a "deep value" strategy fund, run by Tobias Carlisle. He has a fairly simple valuation formula called the Acquirer's Multiple that when he backtested it, is supposed to perform very well. He did an interview with Chris Cole on real Vision where he discusses how Value and Deep Value havent done well recently, but over the last 100 years have proven to be very viable strategies. If we feel that theres a new cycle brewing, then this strategy may work again moving forward.

I want to pause and point out something here, Chris Cole, Nassim Taleb and the guys at Mutiny Fund spend a lot of effort explaining that building a portfolio is a lot like putting together a good basketall team. They need to work together, and pick up each others slack
A lot of the ETFs I'm listing here are in many ways portfolios in and of themselves and are *actively managed*. I specifically chose them because they follow a methodology that I respect but I can't do myself because I dont have the skill, temperament or access to.
The next one is a hidden gem and ties into this. I'm not sure how much more upside there is in this one but man was I surprised.
SII- Sprott Inc. I *never* see people listing this stock in their PMs portfolios. A newsletter I'm subscribed to described this stock as the safest way to play junior miners. Their industry presence, intellectual capital and connections means that they get *the best* private placement deals in the best opportunities. I cant compete with a staff like theirs and I'm not going to try. I bought this at 2.50, and I liked the dividend. Since then they did a reverse split to get on the NYSE and like the day after the stock soared.
When it comes to mining ETFS I like GOAU and SILJ the best. None of their major holdings are dead weight companies that are only there because of market cap. I dont want Barrick in my portfolio etc.
SGDJ is a neat version of GDXJ.
Aside from that my individual miners/royalty companies are (no particular order)
MMX
SAND
PAAS
PGM
AUM
AG
MUX
RIO- Rio2 on the tsx, not rio tinto
KTN
KL
Options/Volatility: varies
So this is where we get to the part about options, Volatility and how I do it. I started out in the options space with The Wheel strategy and the Tastytrade approach of selling premium. The spreads and puts I sell, are on shares listed above, in fact some of those I dont hold anymore.
Theres tons of stuff on this in thetagang and options so I wont go into a whole bunch (and you shouldnt be learning the mechanics from me anyway) but theres one thing I want to go over before it gets wild.
If I sell a Cash Secured Put, from a risk management perspective its identical to just buying 100 shares of the underlying security. You are equally "Short Vol" as well, it just that with options
its a little more explicit with the Greeks and everything. But if I use my margin that I was talking about earlier, then I can still collect the premium and the interest doesnt kick in unless Im actually assigned the shares.
But if I sell too many puts on KL or AG, and something happens where the miners get cut down (and lets be real, they all move together) my margin goes down and then I get assigned and kaboom...my account gets blown up
So what I need to do, is balance out the huge Short Vol situation in my portfolio, be net Long Vol and directly hedge my positions. Since the overwhelming majority of my equities are all tied to bullion this is actually a very easy thing to do.

Backspreads
https://youtu.be/pvX5_rkm5x0
https://youtu.be/-jTvWOGVsK8
https://youtu.be/muYjjm934iY

So I set this up so the vast majority of my margin is tied up in these 1-2 or even 1-3 ratio put spreads that *I actually put on for a small credit*, and roll them every once in a while. I run them on SLV, and GDX.
I keep enough room on my margin so I can withstand a 10% drawdown before it sets off the long end of the spreads and then I can ride it out until it turns around and we keep the PM bull market going.
Theres another cool spread I've been using, which is a modified Jade Lizard; if already hold shares, I'll sell a put, sell a covered call, and use some of the premium to buy a longer dated call. Ive been running this on AG mostly.
I have a few more spreads I can show you but Im tired now so it'll have to wait for later.
As I said multiple times, I do intend to trim these miners later but now isnt the time for that IMO. I'm also monitoring this almost full time since I have an injury and have nothing better to do until I heal :p
submitted by ChudBuntsman to pmstocks [link] [comments]

Armslist: A Story

It was a nice summer day, but I was inside my log cabin made of the finest balsa I could find at Home Depot. What was I doing? On my Alienware gaming laptop, using the internet of course, browsing the greatest classifieds of all time: Armslist.com
As it opens, I am greeted with the intriguing ads for erectile dysfunction cures and political thought pieces. I selected my state, the grand old commonwealth of Virginia, full of red-blooded gun loving Americans.
I ventured into the first page of ads for all kinds of beautiful Taurus revolvers, illegal SBRs, IO inc AKs, and more. I couldn't contain my joy of all the finest choices of weaponry.
I stopped scrolling. "There it is," I say to myself almost tearing up.
A LNIB Zip 22 pistol.
All these years of searching for the right concealed carry piece to protect myself and my hard drives of bitcoins.
The ad only has one picture and a very sparse description. No matter, I immediately message the seller, "Hi there my fellow American, I would like to purchase your wonderfully kept Zip pistol for your asking price of $350." I wait.
One hour later I get a response "Helo i hav dat Zip revolver u want. Unfortunate I have AIDs and am in hospitl recuperatin. Pleas send money to my paypal undr email [email protected], I ship in a week."
I was over joyed, "such a nice seller, and I don't even have to leave my cabin or my pet chinchilla, just an easy transaction," I thought to myself. I sent the funds immediately.
A week later and I have received no response from seller. I message him again. Nothing. "Hmm, strange, perhaps he is just cleaning up the plastic on the Zip for me, can't have a rusty gun," I pondered.
Another week goes by. I am losing my faith in the good people of Armslist. As I'm browsing my favorite sub on reddit, guns, I see a post "Has anyone else been scammed by realgunguy420? He is very sophisticated." I freeze. My world comes crashing down. It was a scam, and I will never get to hold that fine piece of engineering, the Zip 22, in my hand. "CURSE YOU ARMSLIST," I yell in an enraged fury.
Later, I lay down next to my anime body pillow and cry into her breasts the rest of the night.
submitted by ENclip to u/ENclip [link] [comments]

Lost half a bitcoin (age 16)

Lost half a bitcoin gambling (age 16)
So I started gambling a month ago on this site where you gamble bitcoin obviously (it’s a crash game). The reason why I kept playing is because to me it was a way of making easy money for example, I got lucky and made $3200 from a $900 deposit. 3 days ago I played again and lost nearly $1k so that made me frustrated and I deposited $2k after that and guess what I lost that too. So with only $2k left in my wallet I decided to give it another shot and made half the money I lost back. Later that night I played one more time and lost the money I made back. Then the next day I went all in with $1.5k and it busted at 1.3 :( The money I had in my wallet was only temporary. Now I’m broke with nothing left.. I’m really sad right now I feel so depressed idk what to do. I’m just stuck in bed thinking about what I’ve done to myself. Most of it was profit so in reality I only lost $500-600 but that’s still a lot of profit/my own money gone.. Can anyone please help me get through this pain this is the worse feeling in the world. Every time I think about it hurts me.
submitted by slattslime16 to problemgambling [link] [comments]

Searchable table of all quest and hideout upgrade items 0.12.6

Taken from the official wiki. If you have any corrections let me know and I'll edit. Copiable to a spreadsheet application if you want to start crossing items out.
Lvl 10 requirement - 57124 XP
Trader Quest Type Objectives
Prapor Debut Elimination Kill 5 Scavs at Customs; Hand over 2 MP-133 pump-action shotguns
Prapor Checking PickUp Find the bronze pocket watch; (Optional) Find the key to the tank truck; Hand over the bronze pocket watch to Prapor
Prapor Shootout picnic Elimination Neutralize 15 Scavs on Woods
Prapor Delivery from the past PickUp Find a secure case in the Tarcone Director's Office at the Customs terminal; Leave the case in the Factory swing room, on 2nd floor of shop 3; Survive and exit Factory location
Prapor BP depot Discover Mark fuel tank №1 with beacon on Customs; Mark fuel tank №2 with beacon on Customs; Mark fuel tank №3 with beacon on Customs; Mark fuel tank №4 with beacon on Customs; Survive and leave the area
Prapor Bad rep evidence PickUp Find secure folder 0031 in a bunkhouse on Customs; (Optional) Gain access to the closed room in the Factory offices; (Optional) Find the bunkhouse key; Hand over secure folder 0031 to Prapor; Survive and exit Customs location
Prapor Ice cream cones PickUp Find 6 60-round mags for AK; (Optional) Find the key from the bunker in the Terragroup employee room; (Optional) Locate the right bunker in the Woods; Hand over 6 60 round mags for AK to Prapor
Prapor Postman Pat - Part 1 PickUp Find a letter on a messenger in the Factory; Survive and exit Factory location; Hand over the letter to Therapist
Prapor Shaking up teller PickUp Find something valuable in the dorm room 203; (Optional) Gain access to room 214; Hand over the item to Prapor
Prapor The Punisher - Part 1 Elimination Kill 15 Scavs at the Shoreline using AKM series weapon
Prapor The Punisher - Part 2 Elimination Kill 12 Scavs at the Shoreline using a suppressed weapon; Find in raid 7 lower half-masks; Hand masks over to Prapor
Prapor The Punisher - Part 3 Elimination Kill 25 Scavs on Customs using AKS-74U
Prapor The Punisher - Part 4 Elimination Kill 10 Scavs in Woods using 12 gauge shotguns; Kill 10 PMCs on Shoreline while wearing a balaclava and a scav vest.; Find in raid 5 knives Bars A-2607; Handover knives to Prapor
Prapor The Punisher - Part 5 PickUp Find 3 AK-74N; Handover AK-74N rifles to Prapor; Find 3 M4A1 assault rifles; Handover M4A1 rifles to Prapor; Find 5 PM pistols; Handover pistols to Prapor; Kill 10 PMC operatives. You must be wearing a PACA vest and 6b47 helmet
Prapor The Punisher - Part 6 Elimination Kill 15 PMC operators. You must use SVD; Find 7 PMC USEC dogtags; Hand over 7 PMC USEC dogtags; Find 7 PMC BEAR dogtags; Hand over 7 PMC BEAR dogtags
Prapor Polikhim hobo Elimination Kill 25 Scavs on Customs
Prapor Big customer Completion Find a transport with chemicals; Mark the chemical transport with a beacon; Survive and extract Customs
Prapor No offence PickUp Find 10 M67 grenades; Handover grenades to Prapor
Prapor Grenadier Elimination Kill 12 PMC's with grenades
Prapor Perfect mediator Standing Reach 4-th level of standing with Ragman; Reach 4-th level of standing with Skier; Reach 4-th level of standing with Mechanic; Reach 4-th level of standing with Peacekeeper; Reach 4-th level of standing with Prapor; Reach 4-th level of standing with Therapist
Prapor Insomnia Elimination Kill 30 PMC's during nighttime (23 to 04)
Prapor Test drive - Part 1 Elimination Kill 5 PMC's using an M1A with a Hybrid 46 silencer and a Trijicon REAP-IR thermal scope
Prapor Regulated materials PickUp Find in raid military battery; Handover military battery; Find in raid 10 30-mil. shells for BMP cannon; Handover 10 30-mil. shells for BMP cannon
Therapist Shortage PickUp Find 5 Salewa kits; Hand over 5 Salewa kits to Therapist
Therapist Sanitary Standards - Part 1 PickUp Find gas analyzer; (Optional) Get access to the pumping station at the Factory; Hand over the gas analyzer to Therapist
Therapist Sanitary Standards - Part 2 Completion Find in raid 2 gas analyzers; Hand over the gas analyzers to Therapist
Therapist Operation Aquarius - Part 1 PickUp Find hidden water in the dorm; Survive and extract Customs
Therapist Operation Aquarius - Part 2 Elimination Eliminate 15 Scavs on Customs
Therapist Painkiller PickUp Find in raid 4 morphine syringes; Hand the syringes over to Therapist
Therapist Pharmacist PickUp Find a case with the device; (Optional) Find the paramedic's car; (Optional) Get into dorm room 114; Hand over the case to Therapist
Therapist Supply plans PickUp Find the secure folder on the sawmill; Survive and exit Woods location; Hand over the folder to Therapist
Therapist General wares Completion Find in raid 15 cans of meat; Hand the cans over to Therapist
Therapist Car repair PickUp Find in raid 4 car batteries; Find in raid 8 spark plugs; Hand car batteries over to Therapist; Hand spark plugs over to Therapist
Therapist Health Care Privacy - Part 1 Discover Mark 1st ambulance; Mark 2nd ambulance; Mark 3rd ambulance; Survive and exit the location
Therapist Health Care Privacy - Part 2 Discover Gather info on the fate of the Terragroup research; Hand over info on the fate of the Terragroup research; Survive and exit the location
Therapist Health Care Privacy - Part 3 Discover Find the car that belonged to the head of the Medical Service; Pick up the blood sample; Hand over the blood sample; Survive and exit the location
Therapist Health Care Privacy - Part 4 Skill Increase Health skill level to 4
Therapist Health Care Privacy - Part 5 Multi Locate the drop spot in the nighttime in Factory; Obtain 3 packs of gunpowder and leave them in the designated spot
Therapist Postman Pat - Part 2 PickUp Hand over the letter from messenger to the Therapist
Therapist Out of curiosity PickUp Find a transport with chemicals; Mark the chemical transport with a beacon; Survive and extract Customs
Therapist Trust regain PickUp Find 303 dorm room key; Find ZB-014 key; Find the customs military checkpoint key; Find gas station closet key; Hand over 303 key; Hand over ZB-014 key; Hand over the checkpoint key; Hand over closet key
Therapist Hippocratic Vow Completion Handover 500 dollars.
Therapist Private clinic Completion Handover 3 Ophthalmoscopes; Handover 3 LEDX Skin Transilluminators
Therapist Athlete Skill Earn 10 Health skill level
Therapist Decontamination service Elimination Kill 30 Scavs at the Interchange, from the range less than 60 meters.You must be wearing spec. gear
Therapist An apple a day - keeps the doctor away Completion Handover 400,000 roubles
Skier Supplier PickUp Hand over 4 body armor to Skier; Hand over 4 shotguns to Skier
Skier The Extortionist PickUp Find the hidden valuable cargo; (Optional) Find the messenger body; (Optional) Find a place where the messenger hid the item; Hand it over to Skier
Skier Stirrup Elimination Eliminate 3 PMC operators. You must be using pistols
Skier What's on the flash drive? PickUp Find in raid two USB flash drives with information; Hand them over to Skier
Skier Golden swag Completion Find a Gilded Zibbo lighter; Leave the lighter in the bunkhouse in the trailer parking (Customs)
Skier Chemical - Part 1 PickUp Find some information about the Deputy Chief's past life; (Optional) Find a sleeping place of the former Deputy Chief of Security Hand it over to Skier; Find items that can help the investigation; Hand them over to Skier
Skier Chemical - Part 2 PickUp Find any information that could help with the investigation; Hand it over to Skier; Find any evidence that could help with the investigation; Hand the evidence over to Skier
Skier Chemical - Part 3 PickUp Find a Syringe with a chemical in the Factory; Hand over the syringe to Skier
Skier Chemical - Part 4 PickUp Find a transport with chemicals; Mark the chemical transport with a beacon; Survive and extract Customs
Skier Loyalty buyout Standing Give 1 million roubles to Skier
Skier Friend from the West - Part 1 Elimination Kill 7 USEC Find 7 PMC USEC dogtags; Hand over 7 PMC USEC dogtags
Skier Friend from the West - Part 2 Merchant Hand over $6,000
Skier "Vitamins" - Part 1 PickUp Get first Chemical container; Hand over first Chemical container; Get second Chemical container; Hand over second Chemical container; Get third Chemical container; Hand over third Chemical container
Skier "Vitamins" - Part 2 PickUp Find in raid 3 Medical bloodset; Hand over Medical bloodset, 3 pcs; Find in raid 4 Respirator; Hand over Respirator, 4 pcs
Skier Lend lease - Part 1 PickUp Get first Motor Controller; Hand over first controller; Get second Motor Controller; Hand over second controller; Get third Motor Controller; Hand over third controller; Get first Single-axis Fiber Optic Gyroscope; Hand over first Single-axis Fiber Optic Gyroscope; Get second Single-axis Fiber Optic Gyroscope; Hand over second Single-axis Fiber Optic Gyroscope
Skier Informed means armed Completion Install a WIFI camera to watch the pier; Install the WIFI camera to watch the road to port; Install the WIFI camera to watch Kiba Arms store
Skier Chumming Completion Stash 3 gold chains under the mattress next to BTR-80A; Stash 3 gold chains in the microwave on the 3rd floor of dorms; Stash 3 gold chains in the middle accommodation unit of the sawmill; Kill 5 PMC operators on Interchange in time period from 23:00 till 10:00
Skier Kind of sabotage PickUp Hand over folder 0052 to Skier
Skier Silent caliber Elimination Kill 20 Scavs with a suppressed 12 gauge shotgun; Kill 10 PMC's with a suppressed 12 gauge shotgun
Skier Flint Skill Earn 8 Stress Resistance skill level
Skier Bullshit Discovery Find False flash drive; Put fake flash drive (Dorms, 3-rd floor. Pile of trash opposite the stairs) Put sniper rifle SV-98 (Dorms, 3-rd floor. Pile of trash opposite the stairs; Put Roler watch (Dorms, 3-rd floor. Pile of trash opposite the stairs) Do not kill Scavs at Customs until the quest is completed
Skier Setup Elimination Kill 15 PMC's at Customs. You must be wearing spec. gear
Peacekeeper Fishing Gear Completion Find the secret spot; Leave sniper rifle in place; Leave multitool in place; Survive and leave the area
Peacekeeper Tigr Safari Discover Mark first Tigr vehicle at Customs; Mark second Tigr vehicle at Customs; Mark third Tigr vehicle at Customs; Survive and leave the area
Peacekeeper Scrap Metal Discover Mark first tank T-90 at Shoreline; Mark second tank T-90 at Shoreline; Mark third tank T-90 at Shoreline; Survive and leave the area
Peacekeeper Eagle Eye PickUp Find the first UAV crash site; Find SAS disk from the first crashed drone; Hand over SAS disk from the first crashed drone; Find the second UAV crash site Find SAS disk from the second crashed drone; Hand over SAS disk from the second crashed drone
Peacekeeper Humanitarian Supplies Discover Mark first truck with lost UN cargo; (Optional) Find first truck with lost UN cargo; Mark second truck with lost UN cargo; (Optional) Find second truck with lost UN cargo; Find 5 MRE ration packs; Deliver 5 MRE ration packs to Peacekeeper; Kill 10 Scavs at the Shoreline. You must be wearing UN uniform (MF-UNTAR armor vest and UNTAR helmet); Survive and leave the area
Peacekeeper Redacted quest - Part 1 Exploration Find the missing informant Survive and leave the area
Peacekeeper Redacted quest - Part 2 Exploration Put the beacon on the ritual spot at the Customs; Put the beacon on the ritual spot in the Woods; Put the beacon on the ritual spot in the Shoreline; Survive and leave the area
Peacekeeper Spa Tour - Part 1 Elimination Kill 7 Scavs at the Shoreline with 12 gauge shotgun headshots
Peacekeeper Spa Tour - Part 2 Exploration Mark the helicopter with a beacon Mark a safe road with a beacon Survive and leave the area
Peacekeeper Spa Tour - Part 3 PickUp Find in raid WD-40 100ml; Hand over WD-40 100ml; Find in raid Clin wipers, 2 pcs; Hand over Clin wipers, 2 pcs; Find in raid Corrugated hoses, 2 pcs; Hand over Corrugated hoses, 2 pcs; Find in raid Ox bleach, 2 pcs; Hand over Ox bleach, 2 pcs
Peacekeeper Spa Tour - Part 4 Discover Find generators in right wing; Find generators in left wing; Survive and leave the area
Peacekeeper Spa Tour - Part 5 PickUp Find the key from the locked resort rooms; Hand over key from the locked resort rooms
Peacekeeper Spa Tour - Part 6 Standing Hand over $8,000
Peacekeeper Spa Tour - Part 7 PickUp Find in raid Morphine injector, 4 pcs; Hand over Morphine injector, 4 pcs; Find in raid Heat-exchange alkali surface washer, 2 pcs; Hand over Heat-exchange alkali surface washer, 2 pcs; Find in raid Corrugated hose, 2 pcs; Hand over Corrugated hose, 2 pcs; Find in raid 5L propane tank, 2 pcs; Hand over 5L propane tank, 2 pcs
Peacekeeper Cargo X - Part 1 PickUp Find the cargo record in the computer room; Hand over the retrieved data to Peacekeeper
Peacekeeper Cargo X - Part 2 Exploration Find a room with reservoirs; Find any information on the second part of the shipment; Give the info on the second part of the cargo to Peacekeeper
Peacekeeper Cargo X - Part 3 Multi Find hidden Terragroup cargo; Survive and leave the area
Peacekeeper Lend lease - Part 2 PickUp Find in raid Military COFDM wireless Signal Transmitter; Find in raid 2 Virtex programmable processors; Handover Military COFDM wireless Signal Transmitter; Handover 2 Virtex programmable processors
Peacekeeper Wet Job - Part 1 Elimination Kill 10 Scavs at the Shoreline using a suppressed M4 or ADAR
Peacekeeper Wet Job - Part 2 Exploration Find the fisher's dwelling; Set the beacon; Survive and leave the area
Peacekeeper Wet Job - Part 3 Exploration Find Artyom's car; Survive and leave the area
Peacekeeper Wet Job - Part 4 PickUp Find a list of resort tenants; Hand over the list of tenants to Peacekeeper
Peacekeeper Wet Job - Part 5 PickUp Find info on Artyom's work; Hand over the info to Peacekeeper
Peacekeeper Wet Job - Part 6 Skill Reach level 7 in Sniper rifle handling skill
Peacekeeper The guide Exploration Survive at Interchange (Status: Survived); Survive at Shoreline (Status: Survived); Survive at Factory (Status: Survived); Survive at Laboratory (Status: Survived); Survive at Woods (Status: Survived); Survive at Customs (Status: Survived); Survive at Reserve (Status: Survived)
Peacekeeper Peacekeeping mission Elimination Kill 12 Scavs on Customs while dressed in the UN uniform (UNTAR helmet, MF-UNTAR armor vest, Colt M4A1); Kill 12 Scavs on Interchange while dressed in the UN uniform (UNTAR helmet, MF-UNTAR armor vest, Colt M4A1); Kill 12 Scavs on Shoreline while dressed in the UN uniform (UNTAR helmet, MF-UNTAR armor vest, Colt M4A1); Kill 12 Scavs on Woods while dressed in the UN uniform (UNTAR helmet, MF-UNTAR armor vest, Colt M4A1)
Peacekeeper Mentor Completion Handover 50,000 euros
Mechanic Gunsmith - Part 1 Parameter-oriented modding Modify MP-133 to comply with the required specification
Mechanic Gunsmith - Part 2 Parameter-oriented modding Modify AKS-74U to comply with the required specification
Mechanic Gunsmith - Part 3 Parameter-oriented modding Modify MP5 to comply with the required specification
Mechanic Gunsmith - Part 4 Parameter-oriented modding Modify M4A1 to comply with the required specification
Mechanic Gunsmith - Part 5 Parameter-oriented modding Modify DVL-10 to comply with the required specification
Mechanic Gunsmith - Part 6 Parameter-oriented modding Modify R11 RSASS to comply with the required specification
Mechanic Gunsmith - Part 7 Parameter-oriented modding Modify Remington Model 870 to comply with the required specification
Mechanic Gunsmith - Part 8 Parameter-oriented modding Modify AKM to comply with the required specification
Mechanic Gunsmith - Part 9 Parameter-oriented modding Modify AKS-74N to comply with the required specification
Mechanic Gunsmith - Part 10 Parameter-oriented modding Modify AK-105 to comply with the required specification
Mechanic Gunsmith - Part 11 Parameter-oriented modding Modify AS VAL to comply with the required specification
Mechanic Gunsmith - Part 12 Parameter-oriented modding Modify AK-102 to comply with the required specification
Mechanic Gunsmith - Part 13 Parameter-oriented modding Modify SIG MPX to comply with the required specification
Mechanic Gunsmith - Part 14 Parameter-oriented modding Modify AKMN to comply with the required specification
Mechanic Gunsmith - Part 15 Parameter-oriented modding Modify M1A to comply with the required specification
Mechanic Gunsmith - Part 16 Parameter-oriented modding Modify M4A1 to comply with the required specification
Mechanic Farming - Part 1 Completion Fix the first control board Fix the second control board Survive and leave the area
Mechanic Farming - Part 2 PickUp Find in raid Powercord, 2 pcs; Hand over Powercord, 2 pcs; Find in raid T-Shaped Plug, 4 pcs; Hand over T-Shaped Plug, 4 pcs; Find in raid Printed circuit board, 2 pcs; Hand over Printed circuit board, 2 pcs
Mechanic Farming - Part 3 Completion Find a warehouse of confiscate; Get package with graphics cards; Hand over package with graphics cards
Mechanic Farming - Part 4 PickUp Find in raid Graphics card, 3 pcs; Hand over Graphics card, 3 pcs; Find in raid CPU Fan, 8 pcs; Hand over CPU Fan, 8 pcs
Mechanic Signal - Part 1 Discover Find the first signal source; Find the second signal source; Survive and leave the area
Mechanic Signal - Part 2 PickUp Find in raid 3 PC CPU; Find in raid 3 Rechargeable battery; Find in raid 3 Printed circuit board; Find in raid 3 Broken GPhone; Hand over PC CPU, 3 pcs; Hand over Rechargeable battery, 3 pcs; Hand over Printed circuit board, 3 pcs; Hand over Broken GPhone, 3 pcs
Mechanic Signal - Part 3 Completion Place first jammer; Place second jammer; Place third jammer; Survive and leave the area
Mechanic Signal - Part 4 Skill Increase memory skill level to 4
Mechanic Bad habit PickUp Find in raid Malboro cigarettes, 5 pcs; Hand over Malboro cigarettes, 5 pcs; Find in raid Strike cigarettes, 5 pcs; Hand over Strike cigarettes, 5 pcs; Find in raid Wilston cigarettes, 5 pcs; Hand over Wilston cigarettes, 5 pcs
Mechanic Scout Completion Find a way out of the factory 1; Find a way out of the factory 2; Find a way out of the factory 3; Survive and exit the location
Mechanic Insider Standing Reach level 3 loyalty with Prapor
Mechanic Psycho Sniper Skill Upgrade the Sniper skill to level 9
Mechanic Import PickUp Find in raid UHF RFID Reader; Find in raid VPX Flash Storage Module; Handover UHF RFID Reader; Handover VPX Flash Storage Module
Mechanic Fertilizers PickUp Find in raid 5 Wires Find in raid 5 Capacitors; Handover 5 Wires; Handover 5 Capacitors
Mechanic A Shooter Born in Heaven Elimination Kill 3 PMCs with headshots in the Woods from a distance of more than 100 meters.; Kill 3 PMCs with headshots in the Interchange from a distance of more than 100 meters.; Kill 3 PMCs with headshots in the Shoreline from a distance of more than 100 meters.; Kill 3 PMCs with headshots in the Customs from a distance of more than 100 meters.
Mechanic Introduction Completion Find Jaeger's camp; Find Jaeger's message; Handover the message to the Mechanic
Ragman Only business Merchant Obtain level 2 loyalty with Ragman
Ragman Make ULTRA Great Again Completion Kill 25 Scavs at the Interchange.
Ragman Big sale Exploration Check AVOKADO; Check KOSTIN; Check tRend Check DINO CLOTHES Check TOP BRAND Survive and leave the area
Ragman The Blood of War - Part 1 Completion Mark tank 1; Mark tank 2; Mark tank 3; Survive and leave the area
Ragman Dressed to kill Completion Hand over Ushanka ear-flap cap, 7 pcs; Hand over Kinda cowboy hat, 7 pcs
Ragman Gratitude Completion Find the secret spot; Leave the Ghost balaclava in place; Leave the Shemagh in place; Leave the RayBench sunglasses in place; Leave the Round frame sunglasses in place
Ragman Sales Night Completion Survive in the raid at Interchange 7 times
Ragman Hot delivery Completion Stash Peltor ComTac 2 in specified place, 2 pcs; Stash 6B47 Ratnik-BSh Helmet in specified place, 2 pcs; Stash BNTI Gzhel-K armor in specified place, 2 pcs
Ragman Database - Part 1 Exploration Get Goshan cargo manifests; Hand over Goshan cargo manifests; Get OLI cargo manifests; Hand over OLI cargo manifests; Get IDEA cargo manifests; Hand over IDEA cargo manifests
Ragman Database - Part 2 Completion Get OLI cargo route documents; Hand over OLI cargo route documents
Ragman Minibus Completion Mark first minibus; Mark second minibus; Mark third minibus; Survive and leave the area
Ragman Sew it good - Part 1 PickUp Find in raid Ski hat with holes for eyes; Hand over Ski hat with holes for eyes; Find in raid Pilgrim tourist backpack; Hand over Pilgrim tourist backpack
Ragman Sew it good - Part 2 PickUp Get Gzhel in 0-50% condition; Hand over Gzhel in 0-50% condition; Get Gzhel in 50-100% condition; Hand over Gzhel in 50-100% condition
Ragman Sew it good - Part 3 PickUp Get 6B43 with 0-50% condition; Hand over 6B43 with 0-50% condition; Get 6B43 with 50-100% condition; Hand over 6B43 with 50-100% condition
Ragman Sew it good - Part 4 PickUp Find in raid 2 Wartech (TV-109, TV-106); Hand over 2 Wartech (TV-109, TV-106); Find in raid 2 BlackRock chest rig; Hand over 2 BlackRock chest rig
Ragman The Blood of War - Part 2 PickUp Find in raid Fuel conditioner, 4 pcs; Hand over Fuel conditioner, 4 pcs
Ragman The Blood of War - Part 3 Completion Find and mark first fuel stash; Find and mark second fuel stash; Find and mark third fuel stash; Survive and leave the area
Ragman The key to success PickUp Get Clothes design handbook Part 1; Hand over Clothes design handbook Part 1; Get Clothes design handbook Part 2; Hand over Clothes design handbook Part 2
Ragman Living high is not a crime - Part 1 PickUp Find in raid Bronze lion, 2 pcs; Hand over Bronze lion, 2 pcs; Find in raid Horse figurine, 2 pcs; Hand over Horse figurine, 2 pcs; Find in raid Cat figurine Hand over Cat figurine; Find in raid Roler submariner gold wrist watch; Hand over Roler submariner gold wrist watch
Ragman Living high is not a crime - Part 2 PickUp Find in raid 3 antique teapots; Find in raid 2 antique vases; Handover 3 antique teapots; Handover 2 antique vases
Ragman Charisma brings success Skill Increase the Charisma level to 10
Ragman No fuss needed Standing Increase the Therapist loyalty level to 3
Ragman Supervisor PickUp Get key from Goshan cash registers; Hand over key from Goshan cash registers
Ragman Scavenger Skill Earn 9 Search skill level
Ragman The stylish one Elimination Eliminate Killa 100 times
Ragman Textile - Part 1 Pickup Obtain in raid 5 pcs. of Aramid fiber cloth; Obtain in raid 10 pcs. of Ripstop cloth; Obtain in raid 3 pcs. of paracord; Hand over Aramid fiber cloth 5 pcs.; Hand over Ripstop cloth 10 pcs.; Hand over paracord 3 pcs.
Ragman Textile - Part 2 Pickup Obtain in raid 10 pcs. of Fleece cloth; Hand over Fleece cloth 10 pcs.; Obtain in raid 10 pcs. of Polyamide fabric Cordura; Hand over Polyamide fabric Cordura 10 pcs.; Obtain in raid KEKTAPE duct tape 5 pcs.; Hand over KEKTAPE duct tape 5 pcs.
Jaeger Acquaintance Completion Get 5 Iskra lunch box; Get 6 packs of Emelya rye croutons; Get 3 cans of delicious beef stew
Jaeger The survivalist path - Unprotected, but dangerous Completion Kill 5 scavs on Woods. You should not wear body armor
Jaeger The survivalist path - Thrifty Completion Stash "Iskra" MRE in the ZB-016 bunker; Stash bottle of water in the ZB-016 bunker; Stash "Iskra" MRE in the ZB-014 bunker; Stash bottle of water in the ZB-014 bunker
Jaeger The survivalist path - Zhivchik Experience Spend 5 minutes in a state of complete dehydration
Jaeger The survivalist path - Wounded beast Completion Kill 4 scavs while suffering from pain effect
Jaeger The survivalist path - Tough guy Completion Eliminate 4 scavs on Woods in a single raid. You must not use medicine. Don't use any medicine during the quest
Jaeger The survivalist path - Cold blooded Completion Eliminate 3 PMCs with the headshot while having tremor
Jaeger The survivalist path - Junkie Elimination Kill 20 scavs on Woods while having stimulant effects
Jaeger The survivalist path - Combat medic Completion Reach level 5 Vitality skill
Jaeger Huntsman path - Secured perimeter Completion Eliminate 8 PMС on Factory in the office area
Jaeger Huntsman path - The trophy Completion Eliminate Reshala; Find in raid the golden TT; Handover golden TT to Jaeger
Jaeger Huntsman path - Woods cleaning Completion Kill 40 scavs all over the Tarkov territory
Jaeger Huntsman path - Controller Completion Kill 2 PMCs blinded with the flashbang
Jaeger Huntsman path - Sell-out Elimination Eliminate Killa; Find In Raid Killa's helmet; Handover Killa's helmet to Jaeger
Jaeger Huntsman path - Woods keeper Completion Eliminate Shturman; Find in raid Shturman's key; Handover the Shturman's stash key to Jaeger
Jaeger Huntsman path - Justice Completion Kill 3 scavs that are dressed in police uniform
Jaeger Huntsman path - Evil watchman Completion Kill 7 PMCs in the Dorms area on Customs
Jaeger Huntsman path - Eraser - Part 1 Completion Find and eliminate Glukhar
Jaeger Huntsman path - Eraser - Part 2 Completion Eliminate 8 raiders
Jaeger Ambulance Completion Find in raid portable defibrillator; Find in raid 2 CMS surgery kits; Handover portable defibrillator; Handover 2 CMS surgery kits
Jaeger Shady business PickUp Find in raid 3 flash drives; Handover 3 flash drives
Jaeger Nostalgia Completion Find a room with the view of a bay, where Jaeger was staying; Find Jaegers' photo album; Handover photo album to Jaeger
Jaeger Fishing place Completion Find in raid 3 TerraGroup Labs access keycards; Handover 3 TerraGroup Labs access keycards
Jaeger Courtesy visit Completion Find priest house; Find fisherman house Find chairman house
Jaeger Hunting trip Completion Give the Jaeger 3x M700 sniper rifles of a certain configuration
Jaeger Reserv Completion Find the food storage
Jaeger "The Tarkov shooter" - Part 1 Elimination Kill 8 Scavs over 40 meters away with a Mosin rifle without a scope
Jaeger "The Tarkov shooter" - Part 2 Elimination Make 3 hits in the legs from more than 60 meters away with a Mosin Make 2 headshots from more than 60 meters away with a Mosin
Jaeger "The Tarkov shooter" - Part 3 Elimination Kill 4 PMC operatives with a Mosin at close range, less than 25 meters away
Jaeger "The Tarkov shooter" - Part 4 Elimination Level up the Sniper Rifles skill to 4
Jaeger "The Tarkov shooter" - Part 5 Elimination Kill 10 Scavs at Customs with a Mosin rifle between 21:00 and 5:00
Jaeger "The Tarkov shooter" - Part 6 Elimination Kill 7 Scav snipers with a Mosin
Jaeger "The Tarkov shooter" - Part 7 Elimination Kill 5 PMC operatives with a suppressed Mosin at least 55 meters away
Jaeger "The Tarkov shooter" - Part 8 Elimination Kill 3 PMC operatives with a Mosin over one raid in the Woods
Fence Collector PickUp Find an Old firesteel in raid; Handover the Old firesteel; Find an Antique axe in raid; Handover the Antique axe; Find a Battered antique Book in raid; Handover the Battered antique Book; Find a FireKlean gun lube in raid; Handover the FireKlean gun lube; Find a Golden rooster in raid; Handover the Golden rooster; Find a Silver Badge in raid; Handover the Silver Badge; Find a Deadlyslob's beard oil in raid; Handover the Deadlyslob's beard oil; Find a Golden 1GPhone in raid; Handover the Golden 1GPhone; Find a Jar of DevilDog mayo in raid; Handover the Jar of DevilDog mayo Find a Can of sprats in raid; Handover the Can of sprats; Find a Fake mustache in raid; Handover the Fake mustache; Find a Kotton beanie in raid; Handover the Kotton beanie; Find a Can of Dr. Lupo's coffee beans in raid; Handover the Can of Dr. Lupo's coffee beans; Find a Pestily plague mask in raid; Handover the Pestily plague mask; Find a Raven figurine in raid; Handover the Raven figurine; Find a Shroud half-mask in raid; Handover the Shroud half-mask
Facility Level Requirements
Air Filtering Unit 1 10,000 Dollars Level 3 Generator Level 3 Vents Skier LL3
Bitcoin farm 1 10 CPU Fan 5 Power supply unit 5 Powercord 1 Electric drill Level 2 Intelligence Center
Bitcoin farm 2 15 CPU Fan 5 Power supply unit 5 Printed circuit board 2 Phase control relay Level 3 Generator
Bitcoin farm 3 25 CPU Fan 10 Silicone tubes 2 Electric motor 4 Pressure gauges Level 1 Solar Power Level 3 Water Collector
Booze generator 1 4 Silicone tubes 2 Analog thermometers 2 Pressure gauges 5 Corrugated hose Level 3 Water Collector Level 3 Nutrition Unit
Generator 1 100,000 Roubles
Generator 2 5 Phase control relays 1 Electric motor 15 Wires Level 2 Security Level 2 Vents
Generator 3 6 Phase control relays 2 Electric motor 5 Spark plug 5 Power supply unit Level 3 Security Level 3 Vents Mechanic LL3
Heating 1 25,000 Roubles
Heating 2 50,000 Roubles Level 1 Endurance
Heating 3 8 Radiator helix 8 Wires Level 2 Generator Level 2 Workbench Level 2 Ragman
Illumination 1 10,000 Roubles
Illumination 2 14 Light bulb 5 Wires Level 1 Generator
Illumination 3 50,000 Roubles 7 Capacitors Level 2 Generator Mechanic LL2
Intelligence Center 1 1 Folder with intelligence Level 2 Security Level 2 Vents
Intelligence Center 2 3 Folder with intelligence 3 Secure Flash drive 4 Powercord 4 Damaged hard drive Level 3 Security Level 3 Medstation Level 3 Nutrition Unit Mechanic LL2 Level 3 Attention
Intelligence Center 3 2 Military COFDM wireless Signal Transmitters 2 VPX Flash Storage Modules 3 Gas analyzers 4 Military cable Level 3 Generator Prapor LL3
Lavatory 1 2,000 Roubles
Lavatory 2 3 Corrugated hoses 5 A pack of screws 1 Electric drill Level 1 Water Collector
Lavatory 3 6 Corrugated hoses 2 Pressure gauges 1 A set of tools 3 Xenomorph sealing foam Level 2 Water Collector
Library 1 400,000 Roubles Level 3 Rest Space Level 8 Memory skill
Medstation 1 25,000 Roubles
Medstation 2 50,000 Roubles 2 Medical bloodset 3 Saline solution Therapist LL2 Level 2 Health
Medstation 3 150,000 Roubles 4 Saline solution 1 LEDX Skin Transilluminator 1 Opthalmoscope Therapist LL3 Skier LL2 Vitality Level 3 Level 2 Lavatory
Nutrition unit 1 25,000 Roubles 2 Phase control relay Level 1 Generator
Nutrition unit 2 4 Wrench 2 Corrugated hose 2 Heat-exchange alkali surface washer 1 Phase control relay Level 2 Lavatory
Nutrition unit 3 125,000 Roubles 3 Coffee Majaica 3 Sodium bicarbonate Level 2 Generator Level 3 Lavatory Level 2 Stash Level 3 Metabolism
Rest Space 1 10,000 Roubles
Rest Space 2 35,000 Roubles