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Testing the Tide | Monthly FIRE Portfolio Update - June 2020
We would rather be ruined than changed. -W H Auden, The Age of Anxiety This is my forty-third portfolio update. I complete this update monthly to check my progress against my goal. Portfolio goal My objective is to reach a portfolio of $2 180 000 by 1 July 2021. This would produce a real annual income of about $87 000 (in 2020 dollars). This portfolio objective is based on an expected average real return of 3.99 per cent, or a nominal return of 6.49 per cent. Portfolio summary Vanguard Lifestrategy High Growth Fund – $726 306 Vanguard Lifestrategy Growth Fund – $42 118 Vanguard Lifestrategy Balanced Fund – $78 730 Vanguard Diversified Bonds Fund – $111 691 Vanguard Australian Shares ETF (VAS) – $201 745 Vanguard International Shares ETF (VGS) – $39 357 Betashares Australia 200 ETF (A200) – $231 269 Telstra shares (TLS) – $1 668 Insurance Australia Group shares (IAG) – $7 310 NIB Holdings shares (NHF) – $5 532 Gold ETF (GOLD.ASX) – $117 757 Secured physical gold – $18 913 Ratesetter (P2P lending) – $10 479 Bitcoin – $148 990 Raiz app (Aggressive portfolio) – $16 841 Spaceship Voyager app (Index portfolio) – $2 553 BrickX (P2P rental real estate) – $4 484 Total portfolio value: $1 765 743 (+$8 485 or 0.5%) Asset allocation Australian shares – 42.2% (2.8% under) Global shares – 22.0% Emerging markets shares – 2.3% International small companies – 3.0% Total international shares – 27.3% (2.7% under) Total shares – 69.5% (5.5% under) Total property securities – 0.3% (0.3% over) Australian bonds – 4.7% International bonds – 9.4% Total bonds – 14.0% (1.0% under) Gold – 7.7% Bitcoin – 8.4% Gold and alternatives – 16.2% (6.2% over) Presented visually, below is a high-level view of the current asset allocation of the portfolio. [Chart] Comments The overall portfolio increased slightly over the month. This has continued to move the portfolio beyond the lows seen in late March. The modest portfolio growth of $8 000, or 0.5 per cent, maintains its value at around that achieved at the beginning of the year. [Chart] The limited growth this month largely reflects an increase in the value of my current equity holdings, in VAS and A200 and the Vanguard retail funds. This has outweighed a small decline in the value of Bitcoin and global shares. The value of the bond holdings also increased modestly, pushing them to their highest value since around early 2017. [Chart] There still appears to be an air of unreality around recent asset price increases and the broader economic context. Britain's Bank of England has on some indicators shown that the aftermath of the pandemic and lockdown represent the most challenging financial crisis in around 300 years. What is clear is that investor perceptions and fear around the coronavirus pandemic are a substantial ongoing force driving volatility in equity markets (pdf). A somewhat optimistic view is provided here that the recovery could look more like the recovery from a natural disaster, rather than a traditional recession. Yet there are few certainties on offer. Negative oil prices, and effective offers by US equity investors to bail out Hertz creditors at no cost appear to be signs of a financial system under significant strains. As this Reserve Bank article highlights, while some Australian households are well-placed to weather the storm ahead, the timing and severity of what lays ahead is an important unknown that will itself feed into changes in household wealth from here. Investments this month have been exclusively in the Australian shares exchange-traded fund (VAS) using Selfwealth.* This has been to bring my actual asset allocation more closely in line with the target split between Australian and global shares. A moving azimuth: falling spending continues Monthly expenses on the credit card have continued their downward trajectory across the past month. [Chart] The rolling average of monthly credit card spending is now at its lowest point over the period of the journey. This is despite the end of lockdown, and a slow resumption of some more normal aspects of spending. This has continued the brief period since April of the achievement of a notional and contingent kind of financial independence. The below chart illustrates this temporary state, setting out the degree to which portfolio distributions cover estimated total expenses, measured month to month. [Chart] There are two sources of volatility underlying its movement. The first is the level of expenses, which can vary, and the second is the fact that it is based on financial year distributions, which are themselves volatile. Importantly, the distributions over the last twelve months of this chart is only an estimate - and hence the next few weeks will affect the precision of this analysis across its last 12 observations. Estimating 2019-20 financial year portfolio distributions Since the beginning of the journey, this time of year usually has sense of waiting for events to unfold - in particular, finding out the level of half-year distributions to June. These represent the bulk of distributions, usually averaging 60-65 per cent of total distributions received. They are an important and tangible signpost of progress on the financial independence journey. This is no simple task, as distributions have varied in size considerably. A part of this variation has been the important role of sometimes large and lumpy capital distributions - which have made up between 30 to 48 per cent of total distributions in recent years, and an average of around 15 per cent across the last two decades. I have experimented with many different approaches, most of which have relied on averaging over multi-year periods to even out the 'peaks and troughs' of how market movements may have affected distributions. The main approaches have been:
An 'adjusted income' approach - stripping out the capital gains components of Vanguard funds to reach an estimate of underlying income generation, both across the entire investment period, and during the sharpest low of the Global Financial Crisis
A long-term asset class approach - relying on long-term historical data on averages of the income produced by various asset classes
A 'tax method' approach - this derives an income estimate as a percentage of the portfolio by drawing on taxable investment income totals from tax return records
Simple historical rolling average - this is a rolling three-year measure, based on the actual distributions record of the portfolio
Average distribution rate approach - this method uses a long-term average of annual distributions received as a percentage of the total portfolio since 1999
Each of these have their particular simplifications, advantages and drawbacks. Developing new navigation tools Over the past month I have also developed more fully an alternate 'model' for estimating returns. This simply derives a median value across a set of historical 'cents per unit' distribution data for June and December payouts for the Vanguard funds and exchange traded funds. These make up over 96 per cent of income producing portfolio assets. In other words, this model essentially assumes that each Vanguard fund and ETF owned pays out the 'average' level of distributions this half-year, with the average being based on distribution records that typically go back between 5 to 10 years. Mapping the distribution estimates The chart below sets out the estimate produced by each approach for the June distributions that are to come. [Chart] Some observations on these findings can be made. The lowest estimate is the 'adjusted GFC income' observation, which essentially assumes that the income for this period is as low as experienced by the equity and bond portfolio during the Global Financial Crisis. Just due to timing differences of the period observed, this seems to be a 'worst case' lower bound estimate, which I do not currently place significant weight on. Similarly, at the highest end, the 'average distribution rate' approach simply assumes June distributions deliver a distribution equal to the median that the entire portfolio has delivered since 1999. With higher interest rates, and larger fixed income holdings across much of that time, this seems an objectively unlikely outcome. Similarly, the delivery of exactly the income suggested by long-term averages measured across decades and even centuries would be a matter of chance, rather than the basis for rational expectations. Central estimates of the line of position This leaves the estimates towards the centre of the chart - estimates of between around $28 000 to $43 000 as representing the more likely range. I attach less weight to the historical three-year average due to the high contribution of distributed capital gains over that period of growth, where at least across equities some capital losses are likely to be in greater presence. My preferred central estimate is the model estimate (green) , as it is based in historical data directly from the investment vehicles rather than my own evolving portfolio. The data it is based on in some cases goes back to the Global Financial Crisis. This estimate is also quite close to the raw average of all the alternative approaches (red). It sits a little above the 'adjusted income' measure. None of these estimates, it should be noted, contain any explicit adjustment for the earnings and dividend reductions or delays arising from COVID-19. They may, therefore represent a modest over-estimate for likely June distributions, to the extent that these effects are more negative than those experienced on average across the period of the underlying data. These are difficult to estimate, but dividend reductions could easily be in the order of 20-30 per cent, plausibly lowering distributions to the $23 000 to $27 000 range. The recently announced forecast dividend for the Vanguard Australian Shares ETF (VAS) is, for example, the lowest in four years. As seen from chart above, there is a wide band of estimates, which grow wider still should capital gains be unexpectedly distributed from the Vanguard retail funds. These have represented a source of considerable volatility. Given this, it may seem fruitless to seek to estimate these forthcoming distributions, compared to just waiting for them to arrive. Yet this exercise helps by setting out reasoning and positions, before hindsight bias urgently arrives to inform me that I knew the right answer all along. It also potentially helps clearly 'reject' some models over time, if the predictions they make prove to be systematically incorrect. Progress Progress against the objective, and the additional measures I have reached is set out below. Measure Portfolio All Assets Portfolio objective – $2 180 000 (or $87 000 pa) 81.0% 109.4% Credit card purchases – $71 000 pa 98.8% 133.5% Total expenses – $89 000 pa 79.2% 106.9% Summary The current coronavirus conditions are affecting all aspects of the journey to financial independence - changing spending habits, leading to volatility in equity markets and sequencing risks, and perhaps dramatically altering the expected pattern of portfolio distributions. Although history can provide some guidance, there is simply no definitive way to know whether any or all of these changes will be fundamental and permanent alterations, or simply data points on a post-natural disaster path to a different post-pandemic set of conditions. There is the temptation to fit past crises imperfectly into the modern picture, as this Of Dollars and Data post illustrates well. Taking a longer 100 year view, this piece 'The Allegory of the Hawk and Serpent' is a reminder that our entire set of received truths about constructing a portfolio to survive for the long-term can be a product of a sample size of one - actual past history - and subject to recency bias. This month has felt like one of quiet routines, muted events compared to the past few months, and waiting to understand more fully the shape of the new. Nonetheless, with each new investment, or week of lower expenditure than implied in my FI target, the nature of the journey is incrementally changing - beneath the surface. Small milestones are being passed - such as over 40 per cent of my equity holdings being outside of the the Vanguard retail funds. Or these these retail funds - which once formed over 95 per cent of the portfolio - now making up less than half. With a significant part of the financial independence journey being about repeated small actions producing outsized results with time, the issue of maintaining good routines while exploring beneficial changes is real. Adding to the complexity is that embarking on the financial journey itself is likely to change who one is. This idea, of the difficulty or impossibility of knowing the preferences of a future self, is explored in a fascinating way in this Econtalk podcast episode with a philosophical thought experiment about vampires. It poses the question: perhaps we can never know ourselves at the destination? And yet, who would rationally choose ruin over any change? The post, links and full charts can be seen here.
Below are notable difficulty adjustments when hash rate fell and block times become slower for Bitcoin.
26 Mar 2020 [difficulty adjustment -15.95%, avg block time 11min 54secs]. On the 28th price crashed from $6674 to $6138 ( -8%).
8 Nov 2019 [difficulty adjustment -7.1%, avg block time 10min 46secs]. On the same day price crashed from $9234 to $8783 ( -4.88%).
The next big adjustment was around Nov to Dec 2018 and there were 3 big adjustments with high block times.
19 Dec 2018 [-9.56%, avg block time 11min 3secs]
3 Dec 2018 [-15.13%, avg block time 11min 47secs]
17 Nov 2018 [-7.39%, avg block time 10min 48secs]
There was huge drop off starting on 14th Nov all the way to a bottom on 14-15th Dec ($6351 to $3288 around -48%).
Current situation: We are 1 day 10 hours from the next difficulty adjustment. Projected difficulty adjustment is -5.61% (https://fork.lol/pow/retarget), which could indicate a small dip. However, take note that the date of last adjustment was the 5th and the 3rd halving was on the 11th, between the 5th to the 11th there was increased hashrate from miners trying to mine the final week of 12.5btc that offset the really slow block times after the halving. Therefore it will be the next difficulty adjustment after the one on the 20th that will completely reflect the slower block times after the halving. Currently the median block time taken on the 17th was around 14min (-28.5% difficulty adjustment). For people who do not understand blockchain, basically with the Bitcoin 3rd halving, mining profitability fell for a lot of miners and they probably turned off their miners therefore the blockchain mining time became considerably slower which is reflected with slow transaction speed and higher fees as seen currently. Bitcoin sellers moving their BTC from wallet to an exchange are faced with slow transaction speed and therefore the sell pressure of BTC fell considerably which will attribute to the current price increase. There is a correlation between sell pressure and blockchain congestion (the size of the correlation is undetermined). There is going to be a race. A race between BTC price hiking high enough to attract more miners to reduce avg block times versus the closing window of roughly 2 weeks before the next difficulty adjustment. If the price does not jump high enough, the next difficulty adjustment in the first week of June could signal a huge dip. I am not an expert. I just did some research on the above and wanted to share with fellow Bitcoin compatriots so that we can tread with caution and not lose our shirts. I do not plan to short BTC but I will exit my BTC positions if I expect double digit negative difficulty adjustment in early June. Please visit the original post here https://www.reddit.com/Bitcoin/comments/gm23pe/warning_blockchain_difficulty_adjustment/ There are pictures in the original post as well as 2nd halving evidence with pics. I could not post pics here. If possible please upvote the original post, a lot of people downvote it. Not sure why people downvote it, maybe veterans attempting to hide information from newcomers to fleece them of their shirt. Update 1:>! As of writing, I have opened a small short position on Bitcoin. Stop loss around 10k, estimated take profit around 8500. The reason is because the difficulty adjustment in the next 20 hours, even though is just -5% roughly is still significant. I direct you to look into all the difficulty adjustments in the last 2 years and you will know how rare it is. The ones I caught were all listed at the very top of the post. Since it is my first time shorting BTC, I take this as a learning opportunity so that I will have some experience to face the bigger difficulty adjustment in the first week of June. Analysis into execution, even in failure I am happy.!< Update 2: The difficulty adjustment (DA) happened roughly 6 hours ago and the sell pressure from -6% DA did not seem to be affecting the market much. However, please take a look now at the estimation for the next DA. On https://bitcoin.clarkmoody.com/dashboard/ it is estimated to be -25%. On https://fork.lol/pow/retarget estimated to be -18%. On https://www.blockchain.com/charts/median-confirmation-time the median block time for the last day was 16.8min. My original proposition that the true DA of the halving can only be realized in the next DA stands and that it will be considerable. The increased sell pressure from that DA will be highly significant. That is why there is a race by current miners to get the BTC price up high enough to attract more miners to not have the DA drop too much. Update 3: Current BTC price at $9100 ( ~39 hours after DA). Then again BTC could have dropped from all sorts of reason. However the coincidence with the DA and with all the past DA is just too high to simply shrug off as irrelevant. Anyways past result cannot predict future ones, stay safe with the trading. Will no longer check on this post. References: Difficulty adjustment dates taken from https://btc.com/stats/diff Bitcoin graph history for price movement taken from coinmarketcap. Median confirmation time (block time) taken from https://www.blockchain.com/charts/median-confirmation-time Credits to people who assisted the analysis: kairepaire for pointing out faster block times between 5th-11th. babies_eater for https://fork.lol/pow/retarget moes_tavern_wifi for https://bitcoin.clarkmoody.com/dashboard/ Pantamis for https://diff.cryptothis.com/
ENTER THE CODE 😎N5DDU5Q😎 IN THE COMMENTS WRITE WHAT FOR REGISTRATION BY THE 3000 POINT CODE GIVE
https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/swissborg/ GROWING COIN READ ALL ALL UNDERSTANDING AND INTERESTING !!! https://swissborg.com/chsb-overview?omnisendAttributionID=email_campaign_5ed7551a4c7fa47fca6d18c4&omnisendContactID=5e98526dab617128db19f478&omnisendScopeID=5d63f4888653ed527ebdc81d_7_&utm_campaign=campaign: 0054 - Newsletter June [Non-CAP] (5ed7551a4c7fa47fca6d18c2) & utm_medium = email & utm_source = omnisend incinerate !!! ENTER THE CODE 😎N5DDU5Q😎 IN THE COMMENTS WRITE WHAT FOR REGISTRATION BY THE 3000 POINT CODE GIVE https://swissborg.com/downloads BIT BITCOIN GAME WITH A PRIZE FUND OF 500,000 T DOLLARS. OPEN THE APPLICATION ONCE AFTER 24 HOURS GET 200 POINT TO PUT THEM INTO PREDICTING BIT PRICES AND SO FURTHER. The higher your rating, the more Bitcoins you win Complete tasks to earn CHSB tokens to launch your crypto portfolio in the upcoming SwissBorg Wealth app And don’t forget that the end of our Community Application Contest and the distribution of awards in the Wealth app will occur in the 2nd and 3rd quarters of 2020. We are pleased to announce the first ALREADY SECOND issue of the Protect and Burn CHSB! For the first time in the history of our token, we successfully completed the recording. Unlike the more traditional buyback and buyback mechanisms, we will buy back on exchanges and burn CHSB every time the price moves to the bearish zone. We also created a web page so you can accurately track how many CHSBs have been recorded, put on the card, and other valuable information, such as details of the recording transactions. Bitcoin prices and market fluctuations tracked daily Access to all useful trend forecasting tools, including machine-based SwissBorg Predictor 🏆 How to get to the podium 🏆 To play the game, you predict whether the price of Bitcoin will rise or fall over the next 24 hours. Successful predictions bring you points that increase your ranking in the competition. 🔒 Safety first 🔒 With the SwissBorg Community app, you never run the risk of losing your money. You will learn how to read the bitcoin price chart thanks to our simplified daily bitcoin analysis, which includes general market trends, community trends and the Swissborg Cyborg Predictor forecast. 👉 What is the SwissBorg Wealth app 👈 A simple and safe way to buy, manage and sell your FIAT (cash), bitcoins, Ethereum, CHSB tokens and other crypto assets at the best price. Community: We believe in ecosystems that seek to maximize the benefits of having community members tokens, rather than privilege shareholders. We believe in an investment world that eliminates individualism, greed, exclusivity, and fear, while enhancing trust, satisfaction, inclusiveness, and freedom. Freedom: With our intuitive interface and sophisticated financial mechanism, our upcoming Wealth app gives you the freedom to buy bitcoins and other crypto assets with ease and at the lowest price. Confidence: We use cutting-edge technology to create products that are fast, stable, and provide institutional security. Faith: We believe that the best way to challenge the old investment industry is to help you make informed decisions. Introduced in the Wealth App, we conduct daily market analyzes, blogs, videos and documentaries to expand your investment knowledge. Are you ready to take the first steps into the future of finance? Join us! IGNITION
Warning: Blockchain difficulty adjustment affecting price movement
Below are notable difficulty adjustments when hash rate fell and block times become slower for Bitcoin.
26 Mar 2020 [difficulty adjustment -15.95%, avg block time 11min 54secs]. On the 28th price crashed from $6674 to $6138 ( -8%).
8 Nov 2019 [difficulty adjustment -7.1%, avg block time 10min 46secs]. On the same day price crashed from $9234 to $8783 ( -4.88%).
The next big adjustment was around Nov to Dec 2018 and there were 3 big adjustments with high block times.
19 Dec 2018 [-9.56%, avg block time 11min 3secs]
3 Dec 2018 [-15.13%, avg block time 11min 47secs]
17 Nov 2018 [-7.39%, avg block time 10min 48secs]
There was huge drop off starting on 14th Nov all the way to a bottom on 14-15th Dec ($6351 to $3288 around -48%).
Current situation: We are 1 day 10 hours from the next difficulty adjustment. Projected difficulty adjustment is -5.61% (https://fork.lol/pow/retarget), which could indicate a small dip. However, take note that the date of last adjustment was the 5th and the 3rd halving was on the 11th, between the 5th to the 11th there was increased hashrate from miners trying to mine the final week of 12.5btc that offset the really slow block times after the halving. Therefore it will be the next difficulty adjustment after the one on the 20th that will completely reflect the slower block times after the halving. Currently the median block time taken on the 17th was around 14min (-28.5% difficulty adjustment). https://preview.redd.it/ysnv85wh0lz41.jpg?width=597&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=e130b077f9dc2fc9d02666ef89e6f9249a05f535 For people who do not understand blockchain, basically with the Bitcoin 3rd halving, mining profitability fell for a lot of miners and they probably turned off their miners therefore the blockchain mining time became considerably slower which is reflected with slow transaction speed and higher fees as seen currently. Bitcoin sellers moving their BTC from wallet to an exchange are faced with slow transaction speed and therefore the sell pressure of BTC fell considerably which will attribute to the current price increase. There is a correlation between sell pressure and blockchain congestion (the size of the correlation is undetermined). There is going to be a race. A race between BTC price hiking high enough to attract more miners to reduce avg block times versus the closing window of roughly 2 weeks before the next difficulty adjustment. If the price does not jump high enough, the next difficulty adjustment in the first week of June could signal a huge dip. I am not an expert. I just did some research on the above and wanted to share with fellow Bitcoin compatriots so that we can tread with caution and not lose our shirts. I do not plan to short BTC but I will exit my BTC positions if I expect double digit negative difficulty adjustment in early June. Bitcoin 2nd halving evidence: 2nd halving falls between the 5th and the 19th adjustment so it is only reflected on the 3rd of Aug difficulty adjustment ( -5.43%). See the dip on the 3rd of August. Price fell from $600 to $533 about 11% drop. Update 1:>! As of writing, I have opened a small short position on Bitcoin. Stop loss around 10k, estimated take profit around 8500. The reason is because the difficulty adjustment in the next 20 hours, even though is just -5% roughly is still significant. I direct you to look into all the difficulty adjustments in the last 2 years and you will know how rare it is. The ones I caught were all listed at the very top of the post. Since it is my first time shorting BTC, I take this as a learning opportunity so that I will have some experience to face the bigger difficulty adjustment in the first week of June. Analysis into execution, even in failure I am happy.!< Update 2: The difficulty adjustment (DA) happened roughly 6 hours ago and the sell pressure from -6% DA did not seem to be affecting the market much. However, please take a look now at the estimation for the next DA. On https://bitcoin.clarkmoody.com/dashboard/ it is estimated to be -25%. On https://fork.lol/pow/retarget estimated to be -18%. On https://www.blockchain.com/charts/median-confirmation-time the median block time for the last day was 16.8min. My original proposition that the true DA of the halving can only be realized in the next DA stands and that it will be considerable. The increased sell pressure from that DA will be highly significant. That is why there is a race by current miners to get the BTC price up high enough to attract more miners to not have the DA drop too much. References: Difficulty adjustment dates taken from https://btc.com/stats/diff Bitcoin graph history for price movement taken from coinmarketcap. Median confirmation time (block time) taken from https://www.blockchain.com/charts/median-confirmation-time Credits to people who assisted the analysis: kairepaire for pointing out faster block times between 5th-11th. babies_eater for https://fork.lol/pow/retarget moes_tavern_wifi for https://bitcoin.clarkmoody.com/dashboard/ Pantamis for https://diff.cryptothis.com/
CHSB Token: TOP 100 on CMC, Thanks to YOU !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
CHSB Token: TOP 100 on CMC, Thanks to YOU !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! !!!!!! 8 cents 4 days ago it cost 4 cents https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/swissborg/ GROWING COIN READ ALL ALL UNDERSTANDING AND INTERESTING !!! https://swissborg.com/chsb-overview?omnisendAttributionID=email_campaign_5ed7551a4c7fa47fca6d18c4&omnisendContactID=5e98526dab617128db19f478&omnisendScopeID=5d63f4888653ed527ebdc81d_7_&utm_campaign=campaign%3A+0054+-+Newsletter+June+%5BNon-CAP%5D+%285ed7551a4c7fa47fca6d18c2%29&utm_medium=email&utm_source=omnisend incinerate !!! ENTER THE CODE 😎N5DDU5Q😎 IN THE COMMENTS WRITE WHAT FOR REGISTRATION BY THE 3000 POINT CODE GIVE https://swissborg.com/downloads BIT BITCOIN GAME WITH A PRIZE FUND OF 500,000 T DOLLARS. OPEN THE APPLICATION ONCE AFTER 24 HOURS GET 200 POINT TO PUT THEM INTO PREDICTING BIT PRICES AND SO FURTHER. The higher your rating, the more Bitcoins you win Complete tasks to earn CHSB tokens to launch your crypto portfolio in the upcoming SwissBorg Wealth app And don’t forget that the end of our Community Application Contest and the distribution of awards in the Wealth app will occur in the 2nd and 3rd quarters of 2020. We are pleased to announce the first ALREADY SECOND issue of the Protect and Burn CHSB! For the first time in the history of our token, we successfully completed the recording. Unlike the more traditional buyback and buyback mechanisms, we will buy back on exchanges and burn CHSB every time the price moves to the bearish zone. We also created a web page so you can accurately track how many CHSBs have been recorded, put on the card, and other valuable information, such as details of the recording transactions. Bitcoin prices and market fluctuations tracked daily Access to all useful trend forecasting tools, including machine-based SwissBorg Predictor 🏆 How to get to the podium 🏆 To play the game, you predict whether the price of Bitcoin will rise or fall over the next 24 hours. Successful predictions bring you points that increase your ranking in the competition. 🔒 Safety first 🔒 With the SwissBorg Community app, you never run the risk of losing your money. You will learn how to read the bitcoin price chart thanks to our simplified daily bitcoin analysis, which includes general market trends, community trends and the Swissborg Cyborg Predictor forecast. 👉 What is the SwissBorg Wealth app 👈 An easy and safe way to buy, manage and sell your FIAT (cash), bitcoins, Ethereum, CHSB tokens and other crypto assets at the best price. Community: We believe in ecosystems that seek to maximize the benefits of having community members tokens, rather than privilege shareholders. We believe in an investment world that eliminates individualism, greed, exclusivity and fears while enhancing trust, satisfaction, inclusiveness and freedom. Freedom: With our intuitive interface and sophisticated financial mechanism, our upcoming Wealth app gives you the freedom to buy bitcoins and other crypto assets with ease and at the lowest price. Confidence: We use advanced technology to create products that are fast, stable, and provide institutional security. Faith: We believe that the best way to challenge the old investment industry is to help you make informed decisions. Introduced in the Wealth App, we conduct daily market analysis, blogs, videos and documentaries to expand your investment knowledge. Are you ready to take the first steps into the future of finance? Join us! IGNITION
What would happen if sovereign governments gave bitcoin a gold peg?
This is a totally theoretical post, but I believe it is a really interesting idea and would love to get the Internet's feedback on it, and what you think the ripple effects would be in the scenario described. Am very interested in writing this up and republishing it widely so it can be read by monetary policymakers in all major developed countries - if you know anyone like that, pass it on. In a move that would act like a bridge to a pre-Bretton Woods type of gold peg, (here is a great paper on a history of this in the US: https://fas.org/sgp/crs/misc/R41887.pdf) sovereign governments with gold holdings could (again, it is a theoretical idea - I am saying they COULD do this NOT that anyone or any country is doing this that I know of) establish open market operations to purchase bitcoins (partly as a diversification strategy) using their physical gold holdings at a fixed peg rate of 5 ounces per bitcoin. The reason I say 5 is because the current chart here seems to suggest that somewhat of a convergence to 5 oz is already occurring: https://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=XBT&to=XAU&view=10Y If any government did this and offered to buy physically delivered bitcoins from private holders of bitcoin (no other coins just BTC) in exchange for private delivery of physical gold, then the standard governmental unit of physical gold (held in places like Fort Knox) - known as the Good Delivery Bar which is 400oz of gold - could be procured by any holder of 80 or more coins in a secure and sanctioned exchange with the government in question - the most impactful of course would be if the US did this. My theory is that any time the exchange rate mechanisms in the forex or crypto markets violated the peg, there would be arbitrage opportunities that would bring the peg back in line. It would not only stabilize BTC, but the stabilization might spread via the 24/7 exchange rate mechanism in the crypto market to stabilize many cryptos that are still somewhat worthy experimental stores of value. Depending on the strength, credit, and depth of gold holdings of whatever governments engaged in this, it would seem that such a strategy could transform bitcoin into a new type of sound money, and also signal that owning bitcoin and gold is a priority of governments as well as their citizens. The gold standard was powerful both because it was tethered to something of limited quantity in the earth's crust with unique properties, but also because pre-Bretton Woods gold standards acted very much like a peg - and the government honored the peg no matter what. So in some sense it was still the "faith and credit of the government" that made that peg work so famously. I was partly inspired by this recent award-winning documentary www.inmoneywetrust.org in formulating this idea, and partly by my own academic interest in cryptocurrency. I believe bitcoin, above all others, because of its deflationary nature and algorithmically fixed quantity, is powerful all in itself - but with a peg from a real government to a real precious metal that many governments do in fact hoard (for whatever reason) - it could become both an international currency, and a form of truly sound money backed by governments' physical gold reserves and a legal or policy commitment to a peg of 5 ounces to 1 bitcoin. What do you all think would happen if a major government or many major governments did this? Remember the idea is to convince monetary policymakers in governments to willingly and openly bypass completely the fiat currencies of their governments and to make no informational commitment to those free-floating fiat markets for forex - so the bitcoins transacted for in the peg wouldn't be bought with dollars or yen or anything that could be printed by fiat. This would simply be a convertibility guarantee by major governments that 1 bitcoin, transferred to the Treasury by a private citizen or business (again so the Treasury could diversify holdings of sound money), would be convertible and be guaranteed to be convertible to 5 oz of physical, deliverable gold bullion (or 80 bitcoins per bar). Here is a list of the largest physical gold holders on earth who could theoretically engage in this type of operation: https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/040715/what-countries-have-largest-gold-reserves.asp Thanks Reddit! Looking forward to your thoughts! Alex Kaufman
GROWING COIN READ ALL EVERYTHING IS UNDERSTANDING AND INTERESTING !!! ENTER THE N5DDU5Q CODE IN THE COMMENTS WRITE WHAT FOR REGISTRATION BY THE 3000 POINT CODE GIVE. BIT BITCOIN GAME WITH A PRIZE FUND OF 500,000 T DOLLARS.
https://preview.redd.it/7v3nrp8j52351.jpg?width=1184&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=7c131b3d0a5b33ef392a7c9516d16fdc522f07b6 https://preview.redd.it/rbjsnaaj52351.jpg?width=826&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=d3dab6bdeeaa8f164722b49e9074570127f7b141 GROWING COIN READ ALL EVERYTHING IS UNDERSTANDING AND INTERESTING !!! ENTER THE N5DDU5Q CODE IN THE COMMENTS WRITE WHAT FOR REGISTRATION BY THE 3000 POINT CODE GIVE https://swissborg.com/downloads BIT BITCOIN GAME WITH A PRIZE FUND OF 500,000 T DOLLARS. OPEN THE APPLICATION ONCE IN 24 HOURS GET 200 POINT TO INVEST THEM IN PREDICTING THE BIT PRICE AND SO NEXT. The higher your rating, the more Bitcoins you win Complete tasks to earn CHSB tokens to launch your crypto portfolio in the upcoming SwissBorg Wealth app And don’t forget that the end of our Community Application Contest and the distribution of awards in the Wealth app will occur in the 2nd and 3rd quarters of 2020. https://swissborg.com/chsb-overview?omnisendAttributionID=email_campaign_5ed7551a4c7fa47fca6d18c4&omnisendContactID=5e98526dab617128db19f478&omnisendScopeID=5d63f4888653ed527ebdc81d_7_&utm_campaign=campaign%3A+0054+-+Newsletter+June+%5BNon-CAP%5D+%285ed7551a4c7fa47fca6d18c2%29&utm_medium=email&utm_source=omnisend incinerate !!! We are pleased to announce the first ALREADY SECOND issue of the Protect and Burn CHSB! For the first time in the history of our token, we successfully completed the recording. Unlike the more traditional buyback and buyback mechanisms, we will buy back on exchanges and burn CHSB every time the price moves to the bearish zone. We also created a web page so you can accurately track how many CHSBs have been recorded, put on the card, and other valuable information, such as details of the recording transactions. Bitcoin prices and market fluctuations tracked daily Access to all useful trend forecasting tools, including machine-based SwissBorg Predictor 🏆 How to get to the podium 🏆 To play the game, you predict whether the price of Bitcoin will rise or fall over the next 24 hours. Successful predictions bring you points that increase your ranking in the competition. 🔒 Safety first 🔒 With the SwissBorg Community app, you never run the risk of losing your money. You will learn how to read the bitcoin price chart thanks to our simplified daily bitcoin analysis, which includes general market trends, community trends and the Swissborg Cyborg Predictor forecast. 👉 What is the SwissBorg Wealth app 👈 An easy and safe way to buy, manage and sell your FIAT (cash), bitcoins, Ethereum, CHSB tokens and other crypto assets at the best price. Community: We believe in ecosystems that seek to maximize the benefits of having community members tokens, rather than privilege shareholders. We believe in an investment world that eliminates individualism, greed, exclusivity and fears while enhancing trust, satisfaction, inclusiveness and freedom. Freedom: With our intuitive interface and sophisticated financial mechanism, our upcoming Wealth app gives you the freedom to buy bitcoins and other crypto assets with ease and at the lowest price. Confidence: We use advanced technology to create products that are fast, stable, and provide institutional security. Faith: We believe that the best way to challenge the old investment industry is to help you make informed decisions. Introduced in the Wealth App, we conduct daily market analysis, blogs, videos and documentaries to expand your investment knowledge. Are you ready to take the first steps into the future of finance? Join us! Set fire to
What Can We Expect in the Halving Market? 58COIN Exchange Beauty Executive Gives the Answer
What are the effects of the third Bitcoin halving? How to view the relationship between mining pools and exchanges? Is the contract a road of no return? What is the future trend of digital currency? Q1: What does 58COIN expect from this Bitcoin halving? Xiao Bei: On the macro level, reduction in the bitcoin production shows a more stable signal to the market. May 12th is the third halving in bitcoin’s history, before it, however, the daily production plunged from 1800 to 900, a reduction of around 30,000 bitcoins in a month. The selling pressure reduced significantly, which leaves the root impact on the gradual stability of the market. The reduction not only brought us a bull market with a sustainable and long-lasting effect but greater opportunities as well. As an exchange, it should better improve itself and render stable and quality products to users. Currently, 58COIN’s mining pool ranks the top 5 in the world. After the reduction, based on the principle of survival of the fittest, the superior resources will be allocated to a larger and more stable mining farm, and the steady recovery of computing power is also anticipating. Q2: As an exchange, why does 58COIN occupy more than 10% of the overall bitcoin’s computing power? Xiao Bei: At present, our computing power share is about 7.8%, ranking among the top five in the world. Our recent goal is to have a stable computing power share of more than 10%. The mining pool provides the main non-trading BTC source for the exchange, increases the supply of BTCs on the market, and injects liquidity into the market. The top ten exchanges are expected to receive more than 70% of the bitcoin in the mining pool, so all major exchanges have begun to layout the mining pool to compete for BTC. 58COIN has reorganized the layout and started the operation of the new mining pool (58COIN& 1THash) in 2019. We have a mature operation team with more than 6 years’ experience, and hope to better link the upstream and downstream industries in the next stage. This is also an important step in the strategic development of high-quality exchanges. Q3: For an exchange, liquidity and redemption abilities are the absolute reflection of the user's sense of security. How does 58COIN ensure these two abilities that users care most? Xiao Bei: In terms of liquidity, first of all, our registered users have exceeded 3 million, which provides sufficient trading liquidity and depth. Secondly, our matching transaction service with constantly upgraded technology and algorithm ensures that each matchmaking time is in the microsecond level, and easily achieve system 10,000-level throughput performance. Concerning the redemption ability, non-trading digital assets held by the exchange serves as the foundation. The advantages of 58COIN's mining pool have accumulated abundant platform reserves for us. As of now, our risk reserve has exceeded 3.6 billion yuan. Besides, the Exchange integrates account opening, transaction matching, and liquidation, and plays an important role in the secondary market. Most exchanges lack a high-quality intelligent risk control system, a comprehensive anti-money laundering mechanism, and insufficient open and transparent information disclosure and supervision. There may be acts of forgery of trading volume, joint price manipulation with the project party, and other actions that harm the interests of investors. If the liquidity itself is not good enough, the situation mentioned above is more likely to occur. Q4: Which section does 58COIN values most? Contract Trading or Spot Transactions? What is the biggest advantage of trading contracts on 58COIN? Xiao Bei: Both spot and contract boast their own advantages, separately lie in the exchange value through hoarded coins, and flexible use of fluctuations. 58COIN as the main contract exchange, contract trading is definitely our focus. In terms of spot, it is mainly based on mainstream currencies. Compared with spot trading, the two-direction trading mechanism is more flexible. Also, leverage can increase the utilization rate of funds and amplify the profit, which is suitable for users with fewer funds to trade. The biggest advantage of contract transactions, in addition to the just mentioned abundant platform reserves, complete risk control and huge user base, there are several points related to the user's vital interests:
The lowest fee in the industry. For example, the handling fee of the perpetual contract is: “Taker 0.03%, Maker 0.015%”;
The fixed maintenance margin of 0.5%;
No funding fees. We have made every effort to reduce the principal consumption in each exchange, thus greatly lower the risk of liquidation;
The platform insurance funds bear the full debt loss, and users do not have to worry about apportioning any risks.
In addition, the contract can also maintain the value of the existing mainstream spot of the user to minimize the risk of depreciation caused by spot fluctuations. It is worth mentioning that in terms of wallet, we implement multi-level and multi-dimensional security risk control strategies such as hot and cold wallet isolation, multi-signature authorization, and regularly change of hot wallet addresses. Meanwhile, a manual verification process was added to ensure the safety of the assets. Since its establishment, there has never been any wallet accident, wallet stolen, or the loss of coin incidents. Q5: In the contract transaction, what advice does 58COIN give to novice users? Xiao Bei: Firstly, please remind that contract is not a devil, it is just a tool. What we should do is to make good use of the tool to make profits. Secondly, the purpose of the investment is to withdraw, and suggestions are shown below: 1. Invest with the spare funds at hand; 2. In the spot transaction, hoard coins in the bear market and exchange in the bull market, do not follow the trend of buying in the bull market; 3. In the contract, set up operation points and positions, and perform secondary operations according to market conditions. (Do not be greedy) 4. Make a risk response plan during the investment process, such as a sufficient margin, value preservation plan, etc. Finally, we must keep in mind: when doing spot transactions, choose assets with good liquidity in a way to get away from manipulation projects, risky exchanges, etc. 58COIN provides detailed descriptions for each business line, novice users should read them carefully before using. Besides, each contract trading page is designed with a calculator to help provide trading references to users before investment. Q6: What are the new plans of 58COIN? Xiao Bei: First of all, we will remain a sophisticated attitude in technology, risk control, and product experience, offering a stronger guarantee for users' transactions; second, we will further improve the ecological layout of 58COIN, from increasing investment in mining pools, gradually optimizing the hot and cold wallet system, enabling entities, focusing on community construction, etc., with better technical upgrades and preparations, to ensure that the entire 58COIN ecology can better link the upstream and downstream industries, providing our users with a more stable ecological background; We will launch some online activities in the near future, covering basic knowledge, candlestick chart learning, and industry analysis. We look forward to making joint efforts with our users in learning and making progress. Q7: What does 58COIN want to say about the future cryptocurrency market? Xiao Bei: The real big bonus in the cryptocurrency market has not yet been released, and Bitcoin has more imagination space than gold in the future. The cryptocurrency market is stepping toward a diversified, professional, and tangible direction, requiring more high-quality industries participation and landing. Though it is currently the fastest-growing field, financial attributes should not be the only factor entitled to cryptocurrencies, the future market should be more integrated and serve the real economy, such as the Internet of Things, financial systems, and personal privacy. For more details, please log in to www.58ex.com or download our app: https://wap.58ex.com/?locale=en. Website: https://www.58ex.com/ Twitter: https://twitter.com/58_coin Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/coin.58COIN Telegram: https://t.me/official58 Medium: https://medium.com/@58coin_blog/
https://preview.redd.it/6w93e0afttx41.png?width=1400&format=png&auto=webp&s=c00989612ec2d52eb522405e6b6a98bf875e08bb Version 1.3.0 is a powerful update to TkeySpace that our team has been carefully preparing. since version 1.2.0, we have been laying the foundation for implementing new features that are already available in the current version. Who cares about the security and privacy of their assets is an update for you. TkeySpace — was designed to give You full control over your digital assets while maintaining an exceptional level of security, which is why there is no personal data in the wallet: phone number, the email address that could be compromised by hackers — no identity checks and other hassles, just securely save the backup phrase consisting of 12 words.
Briefly about the TkeySpace 1.3.0 update :
Code optimization and switching to AndroidX;
Selecting the privacy mode;
Selecting the recovery method for each currency;
Choosing the address format for Litecoin;
Enhanced validation of transactions and blocks in the network;
Starting with the current update, the TkeySpace wallet can communicate via the TOR network, includes new privacy algorithms, and supports 59 different currencies. https://i.redd.it/kn5waeskttx41.gif Tor is a powerful privacy feature for those who own large assets or live in places where the Internet is heavily censored.
Tor technology provides protection against traffic analysis mechanisms that compromise not only Internet privacy, but also the confidentiality of trade secrets, business contacts, and communications in General.
When you enable TOR settings, all outgoing traffic from the wallet will be encrypted and routed through an anonymous network of servers, periodically forming a chain through the Tor network, which uses multi-level encryption, effectively hiding any information about the sender: location, IP address, and other data. This means that if your provider blocks the connection, you can rest easy — after all, by running this function, you will get an encrypted connection to the network without restrictions. https://preview.redd.it/w9y3ax4mttx41.png?width=960&format=png&auto=webp&s=972e375fc26d479e8b8d2999f7659ec332e2af55 In TOR mode, the wallet may work noticeably slower and in some cases, there may be problems with the network, due to encryption, some blockchain browsers may temporarily not work. However, TOR encryption is very important when Internet providers completely block traffic and switching to this mode, you get complete freedom and no blocks for transactions.
Confidentiality of transactions (the Blockchain transaction)
The wallet can change the model of a standard transaction, mixing inputs and outputs, making it difficult to identify certain cryptocurrencies. In the current update, you can select one of several modes for the transaction privacy level: deterministic lexicographic sorting or shuffle mode.
Mode: Lexicographic indexing
Implemented deterministic lexicographic sorting using hashes of previous transactions and output indexes for sorting transaction input data, as well as values and scriptPubKeys for sorting transaction output data; We understand that information must remain confidential not only in the interests of consumers but also in higher orders, financial systems must be kept secret to prevent fraud. One way to address these privacy shortcomings is to randomize the order of inputs and outputs.
Lexicographic orderingis a comparison algorithm used to sort two sets based on their Cartesian order within their common superset. Lexicographic order is also often referred to as alphabetical order or dictionary order. The hashes of previous transactions (in reverse byte order) are sorted in ascending order, lexicographically.
In the case of two matching transaction hashes, the corresponding previous output indexes will be compared by their integer value in ascending order. If the previous output indexes match, the input data is considered equal.
Shuffle Mode: mixing (random indexing)
To learn more about how “shuffle mode” works, we will first analyze the mechanisms using the example of a classic transaction. Current balance Of your wallet: 100 TKEY, coins are stored at different addresses: x1. Address-contains 10 TKEY. x2. Address-contains 20 TKEY. x3. Address-contains 30 TKEY. x4. Address-contains 15 TKEY. x5. Address-contains 25 TKEY.
Addresses in the blockchain are identifiers that you use to send cryptocurrency to another person or to receive digital currency.
Let’s look at a similar example: you have 100 TKEY on your balance, and you need to send 19 TKEY. x1. Address-contains 10 TKEY. x2. Address-contains 20 TKEY. x3. Address-contains 30 TKEY. x4. Address-contains 15 TKEY. x5. Address-contains 25 TKEY. You send 19 TKEY, the system analyzes all your addresses and balances on them and selects the most suitable ones for the transaction. To send 19 TKEY, the miners will be given coins with x2. Addresses, for a total of 20 TKEY. Of these, 19 TKEY will be sent to the recipient, and 0.99999679 TKEY will be returned to Your new address as change minus the transaction fee. https://preview.redd.it/doxmqffqttx41.png?width=1400&format=png&auto=webp&s=5c99ec41363fe50cd651dc0acab05e175416006a In the blockchain explorer, you will see the transaction amount in the amount of 20 TKEY, where 0.99999679 TKEY is Your change, 19 TKEY is the amount you sent and 0.00000321 is the transaction fee. The shuffle mode has a cumulative effect. with each new transaction, delivery Addresses will be created and the selection of debit addresses/s that are most suitable for the transaction will change. Thus, if you store 1,000,000 TKEY in your wallet and want to send 1 TKEY to the recipient, the transaction amount will not display most of your balance but will select 1 or more addresses for the transaction.
Selecting the recovery method for each digital currency (Blockchain restore)
Now you can choose the recovery method for each currency: API + Blockchain or blockchain.
Note: This is not a syncing process, but rather the choice of a recovery method for your wallet. Syncing takes place with the blockchain — regardless of the method you choose.
What are the differences between recovery methods?
API + Blockchain
In order not to load the entire history of the blockchain, i.e. block and transaction headers, the API helps you quickly get point information about previous transactions. For example, If your transactions are located in block 67325 and block 71775, the API will indicate to the node the necessary points for restoring Your balance, which will speed up the “recovery” process. As soon as the information is received, communication with the peers takes place and synchronization begins from the control point, then from this moment, all subsequent block loading is carried out through the blockchain. This method allows you to quickly restore Your existing wallet. ‘’+’’ Speed. ‘’-’’ The API server may fail.
This method loads all block headers (block headers + Merkle) starting from the BIP44 checkpoint and manually validates transactions. ‘’+’’ It always works and is decentralized. ‘’-’’ Loading the entire blockchain may take a long time.
Why do I need to switch the recovery method?
If when creating a wallet or restoring it, a notification (!) lights up in red near the selected cryptocurrency, then most likely the API has failed, so go to Settings — Security Center — Privacy — Blockchain Restore — switch to Blockchain. Syncing will be successful.
Enhanced validation of transactions and blocks in the network
Due to the increased complexity in the Tkeycoin network, we have implemented enhanced validation of the tkeycoin consensus algorithm, and this algorithm is also available for other cryptocurrencies.
What is the advantage of the enhanced validation algorithm for the user
First, the name itself speaks for itself — it increases the security of the network, and second, by implementing the function — we have accelerated the work of the TkeySpace blockchain node, the application consumes even fewer resources than before.
High complexity is converted to 3 bytes, which ensures fast code processing and the least resource consumption on your device.
The synchronization process has been upgraded. Node addresses are added to the local storage, and instant synchronization with nodes occurs when you log in again.
Checking for double-spending
TkeySpace eliminates “double-spending” in blockchains, which is very valuable in the Bitcoin and Litecoin networks.
For example, using another application, you may be sent a fake transaction, and the funds will eventually disappear from the network and your wallet because this feature is almost absent in most applications.
Using TkeySpace — you are 100% sure that your funds are safe and protected from fraudulent transactions in the form of “fake” transactions.
The bloom filter to check for nodes
All nodes are checked through the bloom filter. This allows you to exclude fraudulent nodes that try to connect to the network as real nodes of a particular blockchain. In practice, this verification is not available in applications, Tkeycoin — decided to follow a new trend and change the stereotypes, so new features such as node verification using the bloom filter and double-spending verification are a kind of innovation in applications that work with cryptocurrencies.
Updating the Binance and Ethereum libraries
Updated Binance and Ethereum libraries for interaction with the TOR network.
Function — to hide the balance
This function allows you to hide the entire balance from the main screen.
Advanced currency charts and charts without authentication
Detailed market statistics are available, including volumes, both for 1 day and several years. Select the period of interest: 1 day, 7 days, 1 month, 3 months, 6 months, 1 year, 2 years.
In version 1.3.0, you can access charts without authentication. You can monitor the cryptocurrency exchange rate without even logging in to the app. If you have a pin code for logging in, when you open the app, swipe to the left and you will see a list of currencies.
Transaction verification for Tkeycoin is now available directly in the app.
Independent Commission entry for Bitcoin
Taking into account the large volume of the Bitcoin network, we have implemented independent Commission entry — you can specify any Commission amount. For other currencies, smart Commission calculation is enabled based on data from the network. The network independently regulates the most profitable Commission for the sender.
New digital currencies
The TkeySpace wallet supports +59 cryptocurrencies and tokens.
https://preview.redd.it/wl6l09melkv41.png?width=1025&format=png&auto=webp&s=67a72ac734ae8dc39452143ac9c4ec5d58c34eac Whether you’re a crypto faithful or just a passer-by who happened to notice a bitcoin headline, you’ve likely come across the halving. The roughly quadrennial event is arguably an important one in the progression of the bitcoin network. For all the adjustments and changes to bitcoin’s code since its launch – and the evolution of the ecosystem and industry around it – the issuance cycle and bitcoin’s predetermined supply have never been altered. The halving is, perhaps, emblematic of both bitcoin’s philosophical basis as well as its technical progression. It’s also a heck of a lot of fun, with past halvings inspiring celebrations and watch-parties for those counting down each block until the halving officially kicks in. So, let’s get into it.
What is the bitcoin halving?
First, some basics. Each bitcoin block brings three things with it: transactions, newly-created bitcoins and fees. For example, block number 625875 included 1,478 transactions worth 4899.23684782 BTC. The block was created by BTC.com. In exchange for making that block, BTC.com earned 12.5 BTC and 0.08439752 BTC in fees. When bitcoin first launched, each block had a subsidy of 50 BTC. In 2012, that amount fell to 25 BTC per block, and in 2016 it was further reduced to 12.5 BTC per block. With upcoming halving – currently estimated to take place in or around May 12, when the network hits its 630,000th block – that amount will drop to 6.25 BTC per block. To date, roughly 18.3 million bitcoins have been minted out of a total of 21 million that will ever be created.
Wait, what’s a miner?
Miners create the blocks of transactions that make sending BTC throughout the distributed bitcoin network possible. They append new blocks to the ever-growing chain – that’s the blockchain – and are rewarded with new bitcoins for doing so. To create block 625875, BTC.com ran its miners and sought to be the first to create the next block. Mining is resource-intensive by design, and while some have described the process as an effort to solve a complex mathematical problem, a more apt description might be that miners rapidly try forming different numbers until they land on the right one. Mining is a key element of Bitcoin’s security. As more blocks are added, it becomes more difficult to rewind the transactional clock and undo transactions from earlier blocks. The generation of new BTC is how miners make money; their profits come from the sale price minus the cost of electricity, labor and everything else it takes to keep their legions of mining machines humming. The block reward is also the bedrock incentive for miners to keep the block production process – and, as a result, the transaction history – honest. By getting paid in bitcoin, they have an interest in seeing its price stay steady. A transaction history prone to manipulation or tampering would have no value. The cycle of block reward or subsidy halvings is baked into bitcoin’s code. The reward reduction underpins bitcoin’s controlled supply, serving as a kind of digital parallel to finite natural resources. So miners create new bitcoins, and with the halving, they’ll create fewer new bitcoins. Yes. As The Block highlighted on Monday, miners currently make an estimated $13.4 million per day in new bitcoin and fees. Once the halving kicks in, that’ll drop to about $6.7 million total in the even that prices remain steady. Of course, that number may very well fluctuate depending on the market reaction in the hours, days, weeks and months ahead. For a deeper look, check out The Block’s Larry Cermak by-the-charts column on the halving published on Monday. I heard that the price is going to go up with the halving. Is that true? Much digital ink has been spilled in recent months on the question of whether bitcoin’s price will rise as a result of the halving. There are varying theories as to why: the halving will bring new market entrants, the tightening of issuance will spur more buying, or history will basically repeat itself. For example, bitcoin’s price rose above $1,000 a year after its 2012 halving. The July 2016 halving saw bitcoin’s price around $660 – a year later, the price had soared above $2,000. But those were, arguably, different times, and next month’s halving is the first to occur after the parabolic craziness of early 2018. A price increase isn’t a foregone conclusion – though, to be sure, neither is a drop or a continuation of the status quo. Okay…so the number isn’t going up? Nobody knows. And this isn’t investment advice, so quit asking me.
Who will be affected by this?
One can expect that major portions of the bitcoin-facing industry could be impacted in one way or another. As noted above, miners will see the primary element of their income – new bitcoins – be cut in half. That’s bad news for miners who are operating older, less efficient hardware or borrowed significant sums of money to get new equipment – especially those hit by the recent turbulence in crypto markets. Bitcoin’s hash rate – a measure of the network’s computational power – could slip as some operations find themselves unable to make a profit and thus are forced to power down. Exchanges will be affected because they’ll be front-and-center for any market response. It could prove to be a boon for exchanges as they’ll arguably be in the best position to benefit from any positive market moves.
Where can I watch the halving take place?
The best vantage point would a block explorer, where live updates for new transaction blocks can be found. Given that the vast majority of countries are currently in the midst of social distancing because of the coronavirus pandemic, it’s unlikely that in-person parties will be held. But with everyone stuck at home, it’s virtually certain that those with a stake or interest in crypto will be online – from Twitter to Telegram to IRC – waiting for the third-ever bitcoin reward halving to take place. Written By:Ben Edited By:Mosun Graphics By:Jacobite
ABOUT HUOBI : Huobi is a cryptocurrency exchange founded in China in 2013. Currently, Huobi is based in Singapore because this country has friendlier cryptocurrency regulations. The company is registered in Seychelles. Before leaving China due to a cryptocurrency ban, the exchange was responsible for 90% of Bitcoin trading volume in this country. Now Huobi is an international platform with offices located in Singapore, Hong Kong, the United States, Japan, and Korea. In China, the company provides blockchain consulting services. Huobi has sub-exchanges: Huobi Korea, Huobi US, etc. Huobi Global is the biggest Huobi exchange. In November 2019 Huobi Global had to shut down all the accounts belonging to the US customers due to strict cryptocurrency regulations of the USA. This exchange is one of the top 50 cryptocurrency exchanges by trade volume. On the Coingecko chart of exchanges, Huobi Global occupies the third position. The exchange has more than 500 markets and supports over 220 cryptocurrencies. As Huobi provides an option to buy cryptocurrency with fiat money, this exchange is a gateway for people who enter the cryptocurrency world . FEATURES : Huobi Global has a really wide range of functions. First off, this exchange provides an opportunity to buy cryptocurrencies with fiat money using a credit card and other payment means. This option is delivered in the over-the-counter trading section (OTC). There is a menu line in the upper part of the website. It begins with "But Crypto". That's where one can see the OTC offerings provided by Huobi. One can buy or sell the following currencies: Bitcoin (BTC), Ether (ETH), Tether (USDT), EOS, XRP, Litecoin (LTC), Huobi Token (HT), Huobi stablecoin (HUSD), and Bitcoin Cash (BCH). Please note, that there are not so many offerings especially for certain currencies. Normally there are many options for buying BTC or USDT. The prices and payment methods vary from one trader to another. You can pay with a credit card, some traders accept payments via Western Union, AliPay, and other services. There is a cryptocurrency exchange with hundreds of crypto-to-crypto pairs. The exchange supports market, limit and stop-limit orders. It gives traders some control over the situation and helps to secure the assets from trading in loss to some extent. In general, the exchange interface of Huobi is quite generic. Those who have experience of trading on several other exchanges will find the interface familiar. It has a trading view with a candlestick chart on the left and the list of orders updating in real-time on the right. Under the charts, there is an order history. Under the list of market trades, there is a section where users can place orders. The candlestick chart is powered with numerous analysis tools and indicators. What makes Huobi Global more attractive for traders is the support of margin trading. In all margin trading pairs the currencies are traded against Tether (USDT). There are 6 cryptocurrencies that can be traded with x3 leverage: Bitcoin (BTC), Bitcoin Cash (BCH), Litecoin (LTC), XRP, Ether (ETH), and EOS. Huobi Global is aimed to provide service both to small investors and institutional traders. That's the reason why the platform offers institutional accounts with special opportunities for corporate customers. Among these features, there are colocation options and other tools that provide the opportunity of seamless high-frequency trading. Additionally, institutional accounts can get special OTC loans. One more feature is trading derivatives. Huobi provides two separate interfaces for that purpose: Swap trading and Futures trading platforms on Huobi DM. Moreover, it is possible to participate in IEO trading via the Huobi exchange. This feature requires the use of the Huobi Token. ASSETS AND INSTRUMENTS: As mentioned, there are two types of instruments that you can trade on the Huobi derivatives platform. These are your traditional futures as well as the perpetual swaps or futures. With these instruments, you are trading crypto on margin. This means that they are leveraged and your exposure is often many multiples of the amount that you have put down as collateral. Now that we have a brief understanding of leverage, let’s take a look at the instruments on offer at the Huobi exchange. Futures are instruments that allow the holder to buy or sell some asset in the future. Essentially, you are trading some future price of the instrument on the chose delivery date. In terms of expiry dates, they have weekly, bi-weekly and Quarterly which settle every Friday. In terms of expiry dates, they have weekly, bi-weekly and Quarterly which settle every Friday. When it comes to the specifics of the contract, they differ according to which asset is being traded. You should also take a look into the contract specifics in the Huobi docs. This includes such information as the index reference for the prices as well as your last trading price. The latter can only be done up till 10 minutes before the expiry. Perpetual swaps are leveraged instruments that do not have have a delivery date. They are marked to market everyday and settle 3 times a day. They are sometimes also called “perpetual futures” at other exchanges. The reason that they are called “Swaps” at Huobi Derivatives is because you are swapping the returns of one asset for the returns of another. Here, you are swapping crypto returns for returns on the US dollar. At Huobi DM, the Perpetual swaps have leverage up to 125x and they are written on 5 different assets. These are Bitcoin and Ethereum with other coins to be added soon. HUOBI APPS: Huobi mobile app for iOS and Android are available. Similarly, the Huobi mobile app features most of the functionalities available on the web platform also. You can even complete tasks like account registration and verification directly via the app. In Google Play, the Huobi Global app has an average rating of 4.1 stars out of 3,730 reviews. However, in December 2018 and January 2019, some users have said that the Android app won’t let them login due to an error with Captcha. On the Apple App Store, Huobi boasts an average rating of 4.9 stars out of over 4,800 reviews. API : For those of you who are programmers, you will be happy to learn that Huobi global API can be used on the Futures and Swap markets. There is both a websocket as well as a REST version available. It is suggested that you use the REST for one off operation to trade and withdraw. You should use the websocket for market data & order updates. You should also note that you can be a market maker on through the API. If you want to start using the API then you will to get yourself an API key. This can easily be done in the API management of your account dashboard. Here you can select whether you would like it to be a read-only, Withdraw or Trade. You can also bind an IP address to this API so you can ensure than no other person will use your account even if compromised. HUOBI FEES : Huobi has a 0.2 % fee that applies to both market makers and takers for amounts between $0 and $5,000,000 over the course of a 30-day period. In comparison, other top exchanges like Binance have 0.1 percent fees. Actually, it has a fair trading fees structure and easy to remember also. Meanwhile, GDAX has 0.3 percent fees. In January 2019, Huobi Global launched a tiered fee structure that significantly reduces fees for higher-volume traders. This is relatively competitive when compared to other exchanges. Users also have the option to reduce trading fees on Huobi by becoming a VIP member. This involves paying a monthly payment of HT, which varies depending on the membership level (1-5). Like most exchanges, Huobi has no fees on deposits. However, Huobi does have withdrawal fees minimums that vary from coin-to-coin. For example, withdrawing Bitcoin (BTC) costs 0.001 BTC, with a minimum withdrawal amount of 0.01 BTC. For Tether (USDT), the flat fee is 5 USDT. And the minimum withdrawal amount is 20 USDT. Overall, the meaning- Huobi fees are generally higher than most exchanges for lower withdrawal amounts. A few exceptions exist. For example, TUSD has a withdrawal minimum of $20 but a withdrawal fee of only $2. IS IT TRUSTWORTHY? In contrast to other exchanges, Huobi receives a favorable score. First of all, it is incorporated and operated from Singapore. As we all know crypto regulations are advanced there. And promote blockchain startups always. Second, Huobi does provide users with multiple ways to safeguard their accounts. Although it is not enough. Essentially, 2-factor authentication is available using both SMS and authenticator apps. The platform does not require any special confirmation if the account is logged into from an unfamiliar IP address or location. There is no option to whitelist addresses for asset withdrawal, allowing funds to be sent to any address input. Furthermore, Huobi was never hacked. Even though they do present a lucrative target for attackers. Meaning, Huobi has adopted a decentralized exchange structure, which helps to resist DDOS attacks. And we believe the exchange takes these threats seriously and does everything in their power to protect the exchange from hackers. Also, Huobi does store user funds in cold storage to restrict access to them. Actually, the exchange stores around 98 percent of funds in cold wallets. SUPPORT : Something else that is crucial to the entire trading experience is the level of support that the exchange provides. There is nothing more frustrating than having to wait hours for response from support. When it comes to Huobi, there are actually quite a few options to reach their customer support. Perhaps the quickest and most effective way is through their live chat function. Firstly, they will try to help you with the available resources. If that does not work then you can reach out to a live agent. CONCLUSION: So, in summary. We really liked the Huobi futures products. It is not only highly functional but is also secure and leverags the expertise that the team have at the main Huobi exchange. For the futures instruments, there is a decent range of assets and leverage. Markets are also pretty liquid and these are all traded on a simplistic yet technically able trading platform. It’s also great that you can trade on PC programs and mobile apps as well. When it comes to security, they have taken all of the same precautions that are used on the main exchange. Their 20,000 BTC strong insurance fund keeps them well protected and they have not had a single clawback of trader funds since their inception. Yes, there are areas for improvement but the exchanges is still evolving and building out functionality. One can only hope that they take trader suggestions into account. So then, is it worth considering? Well, if you are looking for a highly functional and secure futures exchange that is backed by one of the biggest names in the business, then it is well worth a try. Huobi Website: https://www.huobi.com/en-us/topic/invited/?invite_code=czdh5 UID: 138138177 Huobi Indian Community: https://t.me/huobiglobalindia Huobi Global Community: https://t.me/huobiglobalofficial
Bitcoin is the most censorship resistant money in the world.
You don't have to buy a “whole” bitcoin so don't freak out if you look at the price. You can buy a piece of one no problem.
The Dallas Mavericks accept Bitcoin on their website. You don't trust Mark Cuban. He's the best shark.
Bitcoin is the best performing asset of the last decade (better than S&P500).
Diversify your current portfolio.
It's not illegal in the USA.
You holding just one satoshi slightly limits the supply and can rise the price for everyone else.
[In late 2019] hash rate is the highest it has ever been
Suicide insurance; if Bitcoin rises in price there is no worse feeling than regret.
Some of the smartest people in computer science and cryptography are working on it. Trust nerds.
Look at the all time historical chart. No technical analysis just tell me what you think when you look at it.
Money is a belief system... and I want to believe.
Transparent ledger, no funny business going on it's easy to audit.
Elon Musk appears to be a fan. How's that for an appeal to authority
There is a fixed limit in the number of bitcoins that will exist. 21 million bitcoin, 7 billion people on earth. Do the math.
There are so many examples of governments inflating their currency to the point where it becomes unusable. Read the wikipedia page for Venezuela or Zimbabwe.
Altcoins make sacrifices in either security or centralization. There are altcoins out there that claim to be innovating but just check the scoreboard nothing has flipped Bitcoin in market value or even gotten close.
With technology developing at a rate faster than law, governments and for-profit businesses have the ability to monitor our purchases, location, our habits, and all of this has happened without consent. People made jokes and conspiracy theory, but sometimes conspiracy is real. Most people are good, but there is absolutely evil out there. There are absolutely evil people in positions of power. There are absolutely evil people that work together in positions of power. Does anyone actually believe that Jeffrey Epstein committed suicide. Go read about Leslie Wexner. Go read the cypherpunk manifesto.
The upcoming halvening in 2020 will reduce the number of Bitcoin created in each block, making them more scarce, and if history repeats more valuable.
Bitcoin has lower fees than traditional banking.
Gold has the advantage of being a physical thing. But unlike gold you know Bitcoin is not forged, or mixed with another metal, and you can easily break it into tiny pieces and send it over the internet to someone.
Bitcoin could spark new interests maybe you start to read more into economics, computer science, or Brock Pierce.
Bitcoin has survived with no leader, marketing team, public relations, or legal team.
Because Wired magazine said Bitcoin was dead at $2, Forbes said it was dead at $15, NY Times at $208, and CNN at $333.
Just do a cost benefit analysis. What happens if Bitcoin fails and it goes to zero vs. what happens if it succeeds, and becomes world money.
Bitcoin encourages long term thinking, planning, saving. Due to inflation we are punished by holding on to cash. Look up the statistics on the average savings account while we are bombarded with consumerist bullshit like Funko pop heads, Loot crate subscription services, and new syrup flavors for coffee. Currently we are encouraged to spend now, seek immediate gratification, and ignore what we are becoming as Amazon picks out our clothes and toothpaste ships it to the house and we sit and watch streaming services where content is pushed to us and I'm supposed to buy that this garbage is actually “trending”. Our lives have become so comfortable that idiots spend $60 to escape a room and have someone take your picture when you get out. What would our ancestors think.
Maybe you're a day trader looking to use a trading bot in an unregulated market.
Bitcoin has 7 letters in it. Lucky number 7.....
Bitcoin promises to bank the unbanked, and provide services to those not otherwise “qualified” to open a bank account.
It's just cool, don't you want to seem smart to all your friends.
The origin story is so nuts there's going to be a movie or several movies about the early days of Bitcoin. Satoshi Nakamoto remains anonymous to this day. Imagine if the inventor of the cell phone was anonymous.
If you have money to burn, don't buy soda, weed, or some girls private snapchat it's a dead end put it towards Bitcoin and give it to your child in the future.
To avoid getting ripped off by foreign exchange fees just because you were born one place and your friends were born in another place.
Can't live off the grid in your log cabin and still use Mastercard. Bitcoin is one piece of opting out.
If one country adopts BTC as the national currency, it doesn't take much thought to realise that others will follow.
Join a welcoming and unique community. Everyone is super nice because they want your money.
You can stick it to the baby boomers.
You can stick it to the vegans.
You can stick it Roger Ver.
Maybe your IQ is 70 and you'll do whatever CNBC Fast Money recommends.
Maybe a hacker infects your computer, records you doing that thing, and threatens to release the tape if you do not pay them 1.5 Bitcoin.
You're a risk taker looking for some risky investment.
Aliens attack like Independence Day, blow up major cities in major countries, your money is still safe with Bitcoin. As long as there is a some guy, some person, living on an island with a copy of the ledger out there on your'e good. We're all good.
Many proposals to scale the number of transactions, may the best plan win.
One day you might have to use BTC to pay taxes, buy food, and charge your Tesla.
You want to support a political group and remain private.
You can trust math more than you can trust people to set an emission rate.
Government don't know how much you have.
The first response to Bitcoin being published by Hal Finney stated that Bitcoin was positioned to reach million dollar valuation. Hal was the first bull and passed away in 2014, missing a lot #doitforHal.
Baddies can't freeze your money if they mad at you.
The Big Bang Theory mentioned it, maybe you want to be like Sheldon the bazinga guy.
Be contrarian. In a world where everyone zigs it's sometimes good to zag.
Don't have any hobbies, and you just need a reason to get up in the morning.
Enjoy learning? Bitcoin is a topic where there is so much to learn, and so much development, that it really becomes a never ending journey. For someone who likes learning, it's more productive than speedrunning a video game.
Yolo. You only live once. This isn't a dress rehearsal, if there's something your kind of interested in pursue it. That's true for anything not just Bitcoin. But if you're reading this I'm assuming you're interested.
Bitcoin is not a ponzi scheme. The difference is Bitcoin does not need new people buying in to work, blocks being added will continue even if the community stopped growing.
With religion on the decline maybe you want to join a cult. Crypto twitter is a great echo chamber to meet like minded people.
Satoshi Nakamoto found a way to distribute a global currency in a fair way with the ability to adjust the mining difficulty as we go, it's really incredible. You still need computers and electricity to mine new bitcoin today but it's an extremely fair way for people to earn. There was no premine of Bitcoin. Everyone who has Bitcoin either bought it at what the market said, or they earned it.
No CEO in charge of Bitcoin to make bad decisions or a board of directors that can make changes. The users, an ever growing number, are in charge.
Bitcoin has no days off, it has no workers in charge who can get sick or take a holiday.
Bitcoin has survived 10 years (and more). While there will always be dangers, I'd argue that those first few years it was most vulnerable to fail.
Have some trust in the cypherpunks. Anyone who held and didn't sell bitcoin as it went from pennies to five figures is not looking to get rich. They want to change the world.
Potential president Tulsi Gabbard disclosed owning some.
Digital money is the future, anyone who has tried Venmo can see that. Well Bitcoin is a digitally native asset.
Refugees can use Bitcoin to store their wealth as they flee a failing country.
Bitcoin is an open source project. Anthony Pompliano likes to call it a virus but I like how the author of the Bitcoin Standard describes it. Bitcoin is like a song. As long as one person remembers it you can't destroy a song.
Triple entry accounting. When humans first started recording who owes who what we had single-entry accounting. The king's little brother would keep everything written down, but we had to really trust this guy because he could simply erase a line and that money would be gone. When double-entry accounting started to spread 500 years ago it brought with it massive innovation. Businesses could now form relationships across the ocean as they each kept a record. We did not have innovation again until Satoshi's Bitcoin, where blockchain can be used as the neutral third party to keep record. It might not sound important but blockchain allows us to agree upon an objective reality.
Bitcoin is non-political.
Bitcoin is easy to accept. I mean kind of. It's certainly easier than setting up a bank account.
A sandwich used to cost 10 cents in America, I walk into Subway and they don't even have $5 foot longs anymore. Inflation man..
It's a peaceful protest.
Critics say that mining wastes electricity, but if Bitcoin adoption continues the world will actually be incentivized to produce more renewable energy. There are so many waterfalls and sources of energy in the middle of nowhere right now. People might not see a reason to build a power plant over there now, but in the future it can make business sense. Take that waterfall mine bitcoin, and sell them to the people who can't mine. It allows for a business to sell their energy anywhere.
Get into debates around Bitcoin, build those critical thinking skills.
“Predicting rain doesn't count, building arks does”
“The best time to plant a tree was 20 years ago, the second best time is now.”
"I never considered for one second having anything to do with it. I detested it the moment it was raised. It’s just disgusting. Bitcoin is noxious poison.”
The immaculate conception. No cryptocurrency can have a start the grassroots way Bitcoin did, it's just impossible given how the space has changed.
There are more than 1000x more U.S. dollars today than there were a hundred years ago.
Bitcoin is the largest transfer of wealth this decade from the least curious to the curious.
The concept of the Star Wars Cantina, Galt's Gulch, or young Beat Generation kids sitting in a basement smoking cigarettes and questioning the world can only exist if money remains fungible.
You can send money to your Dad even if he lives in a country run by bad boys.
Memorize your key, and walk around the world carrying your money in your head.
The Federal Reserve is objectively way too powerful.
John Mcafe promised that if bitcoins were not valued at 1 million dollars by the end of 2020 he would eat his own penis on national television. It will be a sad day if we don't hit that 1 million.
The Apple credit card.
If we ever get artificial intelligence it'll be able to interact with Bitcoin.
Katy Perry is aware of crypto so if by some chance you run into her, you get one chance to strike up conversation, so here's your chance to shine. You don't ask for a picture, you don't say she's pretty, or name your favorite song. Take your shot and ask about what type of cold storage she uses for her bitcoin.
Many people are afraid of a world currency because it's associated with a centralized world power taking control. Bitcoin allows for neutral world money.
I was going through old emails today and came across this one I sent out to family on January 4, 2018. It was a reflection on the 2017 crypto bull market and where I saw it heading, as well as some general advice on crypto, investment, and being safe about how you handle yourself in cryptoland. I feel that we are on the cusp of a new bull market right now, so I thought that I would put this out for at least a few people to see *before* the next bull run, not after. While the details have changed, I don't see a thing in this email that I fundamentally wouldn't say again, although I'd also probably insist that people get a Yubikey and use that for all 2FA where it is supported. Happy reading, and sorry for some of the formatting weirdness -- I cleaned it up pretty well from the original email formatting, but I love lists and indents and Reddit has limitations... :-/ Also, don't laught at my token picks from January 2018! It was a long time ago and (luckliy) I took my own advice about moving a bunch into USD shortly after I sent this. I didn't hit the top, and I came back in too early in the summer of 2018, but I got lucky in many respects. ----------------------------------------------------------------------- Jan-4, 2018 Hey all! I woke up this morning to ETH at a solid $1000 and decided to put some thoughts together on what I think crypto has done and what I think it will do. *******, if you could share this to your kids I’d appreciate it -- I don’t have e-mail addresses, and it’s a bit unwieldy for FB Messenger… Hopefully they’ll at least find it thought-provoking. If not, they can use it as further evidence that I’m a nutjob. 😉 Some history before I head into the future. I first mined some BTC in 2011 or 2012 (Can’t remember exactly, but it was around the Christmas holidays when I started because I had time off from work to get it set up and running.) I kept it up through the start of summer in 2012, but stopped because it made my PC run hot and as it was no longer winter, ********** didn’t appreciate the sound of the fans blowing that hot air into the room any more. I’ve always said that the first BTC I mined was at $1, but looking back at it now, that’s not true – It was around $2. Here’s a link to BTC price history. In the summer of 2013 I got a new PC and moved my programs and files over before scrapping the old one. I hadn’t touched my BTC mining folder for a year then, and I didn’t even think about salvaging those wallet files. They are now gone forever, including the 9-10BTC that were in them. While I can intellectually justify the loss, it was sloppy and underlines a key thing about cryptocurrency that I believe will limit its widespread adoption by the general public until it is addressed and solved: In cryptoland, you are your own bank, and if you lose your password or account number, there is no person or organization that can help you reset it so that you can get access back. Your money is gone forever. On April 12, 2014 I bought my first BTC through Coinbase. BTC had spiked to $1000 and been in the news, at least in Japan. This made me remember my old wallet and freak out for a couple of months trying to find it and reclaim the coins. I then FOMO’d (Fear Of Missing Out”) and bought $100 worth of BTC. I was actually very lucky in my timing and bought at around $430. Even so, except for a brief 50% swing up almost immediately afterwards that made me check prices 5 times a day, BTC fell below my purchase price by the end of September and I didn’t get back to even until the end of 2015. In May 2015 I bought my first ETH at around $1. I sent some guy on bitcointalk ~$100 worth of BTC and he sent me 100 ETH – all on trust because the amounts were small and this was a small group of people. BTC was down in the $250 range at that point, so I had lost 30-40% of my initial investment. This was of the $100 invested, so not that much in real terms, but huge in percentages. It also meant that I had to buy another $100 of BTC on Coinbase to send to this guy. A few months after I purchased my ETH, BTC had doubled and ETH had gone down to $0.50, halving the value of my ETH holdings. I was even on the first BTC purchase finally, but was now down 50% on the ETH I had bought. The good news was that this made me start to look at things more seriously. Where I had skimmed white papers and gotten a superficial understanding of the technology before FOMO’ing, I started to act as an investor, not a speculator. Let me define how I see those two different types of activity:
Investors buy because the price is less than the value they see in the investment. Speculators buy because they think that someone will pay more in the future than they are paying now.
Investors trade on information (The white paper was really well-written, had a clear technical advantage over other alternatives, and addresses a need that I can understand and value.) Speculators trade on sentiment. (Buy the rumor! Sell the news!)
Investors usually look at the investment and themselves and can describe why they purchase in those terms (ABC-Coin provides (service) that isn’t addressed yet and matches (requirements) for an investment.) Speculators usually describe why they bought something in terms of how other people think (I think that other people think that the price will rise, so I want to get ahead of that.)
Investors don’t necessarily check the price every day. The can, and very often I do, but it isn’t required because fundamentals don’t often change on a dime. Speculators need to be glued to a price feed, because sentiment very often changes on a dime.
Investors like ideas, people, business plans, and market opportunities. Good ones are like Spock. Speculators like trends. They are tribal.
Investors have a longer time horizon than speculators. In cryptoland, the notion of a “longer” time horizon is still laughably small (months) compared to traditional markets, but it certainly isn’t weeks or days or hours, which is whre speculators often live.
So what has been my experience as an investor? After sitting out the rest of 2015 because I needed to understand the market better, I bought into ETH quite heavily, with my initial big purchases being in March-April of 2016. Those purchases were in the $11-$14 range. ETH, of course, dropped immediately to under $10, then came back and bounced around my purchase range for a while until December of 2016, when I purchased a lot more at around $8. I also purchased my first ICO in August of 2016, HEAT. I bought 25ETH worth. Those tokens are now worth about half of their ICO price, so about 12.5ETH or $12500 instead of the $25000 they would be worth if I had just kept ETH. There are some other things with HEAT that mean I’ve done quite a bit better than those numbers would suggest, but the fact is that the single best thing I could have done is to hold ETH and not spend the effort/time/cost of working with HEAT. That holds true for about every top-25 token on the market when compared to ETH. It certainly holds true for the many, many tokens I tried to trade in Q1-Q2 of 2017. In almost every single case I would have done better and slept better had I just held ETH instead of trying to be smarter than Mr. Market. But, I made money on all of them except one because the crypto market went up more in USD terms than any individual coin went down in ETH or BTC terms. This underlines something that I read somewhere and that I take to heart: A rising market makes everyone seem like a genius. A monkey throwing darts at a list of the top 100 cryptocurrencies last year would have doubled his money. Here’s a chart from September that shows 2017 year-to-date returns for the top 10 cryptocurrencies, and all of them went up a *lot* more between then and December. A monkey throwing darts at this list there would have quintupled his money. When evaluating performance, then, you have to beat the monkey, and preferably you should try to beat a Wall Street monkey. I couldn’t, so I stopped trying around July 2017. My benchmark was the BLX, a DAA (Digital Asset Array – think fund like a Fidelity fund) created by ICONOMI. I wasn’t even close to beating the BLX returns, so I did several things.
I went from holding about 25 different tokens to holding 10 now. More on that in a bit.
I used those funds to buy ETH and BLX. ETH has done crazy-good since then and BLX has beaten BTC handily, although it hasn’t done as well as ETH.
I used some of those funds to set up an arbitrage operation.
The arbitrage operation is why I kept the 11 tokens that I have now. All but a couple are used in an ETH/token pair for arbitrage, and each one of them except for one special case is part of BLX. Why did I do that? I did that because ICONOMI did a better job of picking long-term holds than I did, and in arbitrage the only speculative thing you must do is pick the pairs to trade. My pairs are (No particular order):
I also hold PLU, PLBT, and ART. These two are multi-year holds for me. I have not purchased BTC once since my initial $200, except for a few cases where BTC was the only way to go to/from an altcoin that didn’t trade against ETH yet. Right now I hold about the same 0.3BTC that I held after my first $100 purchase, so I don’t really count it. Looking forward to this year, I am positioning myself as follows:
ETH will still be my core holding. It is the “deepest in the stack” crypto investment that I have. “Deep in the stack” is a programming term that gets at the idea that most software is built on other software. If you just think about your notebook, you have your OS, and programs run on that. But even inside the OS there is a stack. The bottom of your stack is the kernel, and on top of that are the drivers, protocols, and other layers that allow the programs to talk to the OS, the hard drive, the screen, the mouse, your printer, etc. You can change your mouse or printer easily. Changing things deeper in the stack becomes harder and harder. ETH is deep in the crypto stack, so is very hard to dislodge – Around 60 of the top 100 cryptocurrencies by market cap run on top of Ethereum, so getting rid of Ethereum is something that would take a long time to do.
DNT, QTUM, ZRX, and OMG are all, to varying degrees, “deep in the stack” tokens that, once established, will be very hard to dislodge.
That said, I am peeling away some of my holdings into USD right now, because big changes are afoot and they are going to cause market disruptions. I’m going to come right out and admit that this is speculative, but I’m also going to back it up with some non-speculative facts.
The SEC has been sending out hundreds of subpoenas to cryptocurrency organizations over the past 3-4 months. These subpoenas are simply asking for information and nobody has been charged with any crimes or misdoings, but it is clear that the SEC is getting together information so that they can begin to regulate cryptoland. When that happens, other countries will follow, and that means:
Some tokens will be deemed outright scams and people will be prosecuted.
Some tokens will be deemed securities and will be regulated.
Some tokens will not be deemed scams or securities and will continue as they have.
Looking at this, it is clear to me that the tokens that escape prosecution and regulation should do better, but the short-term impact will be brutal and ugly. It would not surprise me at all to see a 50% drop in overall market cap within Q1-Q2, with Q1 being more likely.
Cryptoland has always been a bit nuts, but it is more nuts now than I have ever seen it. Back in 2011-2014 it was a freaks-n-geeks show where people were all about the technology and I would sit around for a 3-day weekend installing a *nix VM on my Windows machine so that I could compile the most recent source and run a CUDA SHA-256 routine rather than thrash my CPU. If that doesn’t make sense to you, you wouldn’t have even thought about being involved.
Now, people see Bitcoin advertisements in their Facebook feed and think “I gotta get on the BTC train!” before going to Coinbase and buying some with a credit card. They don’t know anything about crypto, and they are getting eaten alive – It is no coincidence that BTC peaked after the Thanksgiving holidays when people sat around the table and Janice got Uncle Mike and Cousin Bob all excited as she talked about going to Cancun for Christmas because of her crypto winnings. Huge amounts of fiat got transferred from newbies to BTC whales during this period, and once the whales were done, BTC had dropped from $20,000 to $12,000. It’s now back at $15,000, but for people who bought at a higher level, this sucks. As a result many have moved from BTC to ETH, with the single biggest money flow in crypto in December being the BTC à ETH flow. As a result, it’s no coincidence that ETH is at all-time highs now. The thing is, though, that even most people that moved from BTC to ETH really have no idea what they are doing. They are acting on buzzwords and emotion. They are speculators and are going to get crushed.
The stock market is quite high right now, but people are starting to worry that it is too high and that we are going to enter into a period of inflation again. This has caused gold to go up a lot the last quarter and is likely also responsible a bit for the rise in cryptos. If this view is correct, then cryptos stay stronger than if that pressure wasn’t there. If wrong, then cryptos will swing down as money exits cryptoland for more traditional markets.
I am spending most of my time and money on the arbitrage effort. The nice thing about arbitrage is that it works as the markets go up, and it works as the markets go down. When markets are too volatile, however, arbitrage can get very messy and dangerous, with each trade generating a loss instead of a profit, so I am working right now to tune the algorithms to take into account rate-of-change and add in some circuit breaker triggers. Once this is done I will expand those operations.
I am getting much more serious about systems security.
I have a Nano Ledger and recommend that anyone with >$1000 of crypto have one. The Trezor is also supposed to be good, but I haven’t used it.
I will set up a dedicated *nix notebook that is used for nothing except my crypto work. All it takes is one keylogger to get on your PC/Mac and your crypto is gone. What is on your Nano Ledger will be OK, but they will sweep out your exchange account or Coinbase account faster than you can type. A standard Linux installation with Chrome and nothing else is as about as secure as you can get in the civilian world.
If you don’t use LastPass or a similar password manager yet, you need to do that. Your password to LastPass should be at least 16 characters long and should not have a recognizable English word in it. If you think that “Iluvu4evah” is a secure password, you’re wrong.
Hackers know that “4”=”for” and “u”=”you”. Writing a script to substitute those in is trivial if they want to write the script, but it’s much easier for them to download one of the many, many programs out there that already do this.
If your password contains any string of numbers from anything that can be associated with you at any time in your life, it is insecure. Take those numbers out of the character count because they are an insignificant barrier to cracking your account.
The good news is that you probably won’t be targeted, but if you ever mention online that you are doing anything significant in crypto, that chance increased enormously.
*Never* talk with *anyone* about how much you have in crypto. You’ll notice that I haven’t here. There is no reason to tell even a family member how much you have unless you are sharing a tax form. Sure, you may trust them, but all it takes if for someone to overhead someone else mention at a party that a relative got into crypto a long time ago and made a bunch of money. That person can also then be subjected to the $10 hack and force you to send all your crypto to them.
Your password to LastPass (Or equivalent.) should look something like this -> 6k0jQMoziX&D#4W8
Yes, it’s a headache. Imagine your headache, though, were you to open your account one day and find all of your money gone.
Looking at my notes, I have two other things that I wanted to work into this email that I didn’t get to, so here they are:
Just like with free apps and other software, if you are getting something of value and you didn’t pay anything for it, you need to ask why this is. With apps, the phrase is “If you didn’t pay for the product, you are the product”, and this works for things such as pump groups, tips, and even technical analysis. Here’s how I see it.
Technical analysis (TA) is something that has been argued about for longer than I’ve been alive, but I think that it falls into the same boat. In short, TA argues that there are patterns in trading that can be read and acted upon to signal when one must buy or sell. It has been used forever in the stock and foreign exchange markets, and people use it in crypto as well. Let’s break down these assumptions a bit.
i. First, if crypto were like the stock or forex markets we’d all be happy with 5-7% gains per year rather than easily seeing that in a day. For TA to work the same way in crypto as it does in stocks and foreign exchange, the signals would have to be *much* stronger and faster-reacting than they work in the traditional market, but people use them in exactly the same way. ii. Another area where crypto is very different than the stock and forex markets centers around market efficiency theory. This theory says that markets are efficient and that the price reflects all the available information at any given time. This is why gold in New York is similar in price to gold in London or Shanghai, and why arbitrage margins are easily <0.1% in those markets compared to cryptoland where I can easily get 10x that. Crypto simply has too much speculation and not enough professional traders in it yet to operate as an efficient market. That fundamentally changes the way that the market behaves and should make any TA patterns from traditional markets irrelevant in crypto. iii. There are services, both free and paid that claim to put out signals based on TA for when one should buy and sell. If you think for even a second that they are not front-running (Placing orders ahead of yours to profit.) you and the other people using the service, you’re naïve. iv. Likewise, if you don’t think that there are people that have but together computerized systems to get ahead of people doing manual TA, you’re naïve. The guys that I have programming my arbitrage bots have offered to build me a TA bot and set up a service to sell signals once our position is taken. I said no, but I am sure that they will do it themselves or sell that to someone else. Basically they look at TA as a tip machine where when a certain pattern is seen, people act on that “tip”. They use software to see that “tip” faster and take a position on it so that when slower participants come in they either have to sell lower or buy higher than the TA bot did. Remember, if you are getting a tip for free, you’re the product. In TA I see a system when people are all acting on free preset “tips” and getting played by the more sophisticated market participants. Again, you have to beat that Wall Street monkey.
If you still don’t agree that TA is bogus, think about it this way: If TA was real, Wall Street would have figured it out decades ago and we would have TA funds that would be beating the market. We don’t.
If you still don’t agree that TA is bogus and that its real and well, proven, then you must think that all smart traders use them. Now follow that logic forward and think about what would happen if every smart trader pushing big money followed TA. The signals would only last for a split second and would then be overwhelmed by people acting on them, making them impossible to leverage. This is essentially what the efficient market theory postulates for all information, including TA.
OK, the one last item. Read this weekly newsletter – You can sign up at the bottom. It is free, so they’re selling something, right? 😉 From what I can tell, though, Evan is a straight-up guy who posts links and almost zero editorial comments. Happy 2018.
Bitcoin mining is a bit more than just number crunching
The charming cryptocurrency and the many ideas that surface in the minds of the observers typically surround couple of apparent concerns - how does it enter being and what about its flow? The response, nevertheless, is uncomplicated. Bitcoins need to be mined, in order to make the cryptocurrency exist in the Bitcoin market. The mystical developer of Bitcoin, Satoshi Nakamoto, imagined a method to exchange the important cryptocurrencies online, by getting rid of the need for any central organization. For Bitcoins, there's an alternative method to hold the essential records of the deal history of the whole blood circulation, and all this is handled through a decentralized way. The journal that helps with the procedure is called the "blockchain". The essence of this journal may need lots of newsprint for appearing frequently at all popular Bitcoin news. Blockchain broadens every minute, existing on the makers associated with the big Bitcoin network. Individuals might question the credibility, even credibility, of these deals and their recordings into Blockchain. This too is nevertheless warranted, through the procedure of Bitcoin mining. Mining allows production of brand-new Bitcoin and assembling deals to the journal. Mining basically involves fixing of complex mathematical estimations, and the miners utilize enormous computing power to resolve it. The private or 'swimming pool' that resolves the puzzle, positions the subsequent block and wins a benefit too. And, how mining can prevent double-spending? Practically every 10 minutes, impressive deals are mined into a block. So, any disparity or illegitimacy is entirely dismissed. For Bitcoins, mining is not mentioned in a conventional sense of the term. Bitcoins are mined by using cryptography. A hash function described as "double SHA-256" is used. However how tough is it to mine Bitcoins? This can be another inquiry. This depends a lot on the effort and computing power being used into mining. Another element worth pointing out is the software application procedure. For each 2016 blocks, problem involved in mining of Bitcoins is changed by itself just to keep the procedure. In turn, the rate of block generation is kept constant. A Bitcoin problem chart is an ideal procedure to show the mining trouble in time. The trouble level changes itself to increase or down in a straight proportional way, depending upon the computational power, whether it's being sustained or removed. As the variety of miners increase, portion of revenues been worthy of by the individuals decrease, everybody winds up with smaller sized pieces of the revenues. Having private economies and neighborhoods, cryptocurrencies like Dogecoin, Namecoin or Peercoin, are called Altcoins. You can easily track your different cryptocurrency by using reputable portfolio trackers.These are options to Bitcoin. Practically like Bitcoins, these 'cousins' do have a substantial fan-following and enthusiasts who are eager to take a deep plunge into the big ocean and start to mine it. Algorithms used for Altcoin mining are either SHA-256 or Scrypt. Numerous other ingenious algorithms exist too. Alleviate, price and simpleness can render it possible to mine Altcoins on a PC or by using unique mining software application. Altcoins are a bit 'down to earth' compared to Bitcoins, yet changing them into huge dollars is a little challenging. Cryptocurrency enthusiasts can simply hope, if a few of them might witness the comparable huge popularity!
Others wish to purchase Bitcoin with debit card. Coinbase likewise offers this service and has clear action by action directions on how to continue with either your debit or charge card. There are those who wish to purchase Bitcoin immediately. This can be done at Paxful, and can be done through W. Union or any credit/debit card. Other typical concerns that show up are what is the very best method to purchase Bitcoins, the very best method to get bitcoins or where to purchase bitcoins online. The most convenient method is most likely to buy it through a digital possession exchange like the formerly pointed out Coinbase. Opening an account with them is pain-free and as soon as you connect your checking account with them you can purchase and offer Bitcoin rather quickly. This is rather most likely likewise the very best location to purchase Bitcoins. One need to understand what a Bitcoin wallet is and how to utilize it. You need to be aware of how to tumble bitcoin if you care about your privacy. It is just the Bitcoin equivalent of a checking account. It permits you to get Bitcoins, save them and send them to others. What it does is shop a collection of Bitcoin personal privacy secrets. Generally it is secured with a password or otherwise secured from unapproved gain access to. There are a number of kinds of digital wallets to pick from. A web wallet permits you to send out, get and keep Bitcoin though your web internet browser. Another type is a desktop wallet and here the wallet software application is saved straight on your computer system. There are likewise mobile wallets which are created for usage by a mobile phone. A concern that periodically turns up is that of Bitcoin stock or how to purchase Bitcoin stock. Without a doubt the most typical method to continue in this location is to purchase Bitcoin straight and not its stock. There is one entity called Bitcoin Financial investment trust which is a mutual fund that is created to track the marketplace circulation of Bitcoin. Some experts nevertheless are calling this a dangerous method to end up being associated with this market. The Bitcoin currency exchange rate USD is a carefully enjoyed criteria both every day and long term over the last 8 years because its intro to the world's monetary market. A popular business to get the most present rate in Bitcoin assessment is XE. They reveal Bitcoin to USD assessment and likewise the total Bitcoin cost chart, the Bitcoin worth chart and the Bitcoin to USD chart. If you ask, "Just how much is one Bitcoin?" you will constantly understand from their constantly upgraded charts. Comparable concerns that show up in this location connect to the bitcoin rate history, the bitcoin rate chart live, the bitcoin to dollar currency exchange rate, the bitcoin dollar chart and the bitcoin 5 year chart. The formerly discussed site, xe, is likewise a great source for responses to these concerns. Bitcoin predicted worth is a subject typically talked about. In January of 2015 the rate of one bitcoin was $215. Presently it is around $5000. This is an extraordinary boost and one far beyond what many specialists would have forecasted at that time. Presently in evaluating projections from professionals all over the world a typical response appears to be that the leading worth will settle in at around $10,000 and one specialist even predicted a worth reaching $100,000.
Rebalancing Crypto Portfolio: What is BAT, Brave, PAY & TenX?
Discover historical prices for BTC-USD stock on Yahoo Finance. View daily, weekly or monthly format back to when Bitcoin USD stock was issued. Bitcoin history. Bitcoin is the first example of decentralized digital money established in 2008 by a person or a group of people under the pseudonym of Satoshi Nakamoto. This account of bitcoin history resumes the first ten-years (2008 - 2019) of the cryptocurrency. Bitcoin price since 2009 to 2019. Bitcoin price charts. Bitcoincharts is the world's leading provider for financial and technical data related to the Bitcoin network. It provides news, markets, price charts and more. When Bitcoin’s network first began, Bitcoin’s block reward was 50 BTC per block mined. This was halved in 2012, at block #210,000, where the block reward became 25 BTC. The second halving was in 2016, at block #420,000, and the block reward became 12.5 BTC. XE Currency Charts. With this convenient tool you can review market history and analyze rate trends for any currency pair. All charts are interactive, use mid-market rates, and are available for up to a 10 year time period. To see a currency chart, select your two currencies, choose a time frame, and click to view.
Download historical Bitcoin data directly into Excel
In the first half of 2020, the price of bitcoinadded 27.09%, which is significantly higher than the market indicators of the main precious metals. The main growth occurred in the second quarter ... Currency trading opportunities are presenting themselves on the Bitcoin exchanges as the changes in the Bitcoin exchange rate becomes much more volatile. The BTC Robot utilizes these trends to ... How to Use Bitcoin Exchange Rate Charts - Duration: 2:13. Internet Services and Social Networks Tutorials from HowTech 2,540 views The technical analysis in this video/live stream has NO proven rate of accuracy and past performance does NOT indicate future results. Do NOT trade or invest based upon the analysis presented in ... This video represent history of BTC-USD exchange rate until 2017.12.07. Bitcoin price is like crazy right now. How much will rising up? and, How much will fa...