SNAP preview, expected move and spread strike selection
Snap (SNAP) reports q2 earnings after the close Tuesday (~4:10pm)
Options are pricing an expected move of 12% by this Friday. That is the bulk of the move expected over the next month, which is about 15%.
Snap closed higher by about 36% in the day following its most recent earnings (in April)
Snap has beaten consensus estimates 7 out of the last 8 times.
https://preview.redd.it/d5e4r4ho28c51.png?width=583&format=png&auto=webp&s=9790a1e378ed329c5d66910d814093260814f70d Neutral - The first thing to look at is a neutral position, selling to both the bulls and the bears. Here are two neutral trades setting breakevens at or near the expected move. First selling the +21.5/-22.5/-28/+29 Iron Condor(condor chart) In this case the risk reward is $56 to make $44. If the stock closes anywhere between 22.5 and 28 on Friday it is a max gain. Any close beyond 21.5 or 29 and a max loss. The breakeven is 22.06 on the downside and 28.44 on the upside. That trade establishes a range of max profit, for those targeting no move at all, with the stock remaining at 25 selling an Iron Butterfly has max profit at the 25 level with profits trailing off towards the expected move and losses beyond: Fly chart Both of these trades are binary, isolating this week and what is likely to be a mostly one day move tomorrow. Bullish - For those thinking directionally the expected move can be used to help determine strike selection. Here's a bullish price target looking out a bit further in time, to August expiration: Trade comparison. In this case both the August long call spread (+25/-29) and the August short put spread (-25/+21) take advantage of multi leg strike selection based on the expected move. The short put spread is "selling to the bears" and is profitable from 22.57 and higher with a max gain if the stock is above 25 on August expiration. The long call spread has a higher breakeven, but by selling the 29 call at a high upside volatility, is much cheaper than an outright 25 call. Bearish - The same is true for a bearish target in line with the expected move but the short call spread is at a slight disadvantage due to having to buy the upside call at a similar or higher IV than the at the money call sale: Trade comparison Full post here.
Addressing recent controversies + A new idea for the Trusted Sellers list.
Hello everyone. I just took a brief hiatus from moderating, as I’ve been in the process of a major post-graduation move. I just caught up with some of the recent controversy regarding Will, and we did a thorough investigation on the matter. Unfortunately, we found evidence of bad faith on the side of the primary individual attacking Will, including usage of alternate accounts to fake grassroots momentum in the "petition” to remove (which he deleted, after being found out), as well as strong suspicions of vote manipulation. Luckily, nothing worthy of an exposé post, like the last time this happened. We have no reason to believe that his motives were more nefarious than simply getting the attention and gratification of being a Cancel Culture Star. But suffice it to say, we are disinclined to bow to his attempt to “cancel” Will. That said, Will is far from innocent. Most of the comments on the individuals posts were not fake and/or motivated for the same reasons as the user behind the main posts. We identified many issues via customer anecdotes and examples of Will’s (un)professional manner, which will not continue to fly as a trusted seller on this board. Will is going to be on thin ice for the time being, and despite being an OG seller on Repsneakers, we are not opposed to removing or even blacklisting him from the TS list if issues persist. Onto the next topic: It is unfortunate that we have had to remove several trusted sellers recently, and I have come to the realization that the current system is not optimal in the way list removals are handled. For example, until a few months ago, UABat was one of the most popular sellers on this subreddit. But he was recently removed from the TS list. Despite this removal, he still appears to be dedicated to making amends with the community, and climbing out of the hole he dug himself into. Not good enough to be on the TS list. Not bad enough to be on the blacklist... So what do we do about these situations where we have sellers have solid history of good service, but go through rough patches which cause loss of confidence by the community? Simply being removed from the list and forgotten/shunned doesn’t seem to be the best answer. The solution may be a third section for the purpose of further distinguishing the many sellers on this board. The idea is to categorize sellers in a less polarizing way than the simply binary (tri-nary?) "on the list", "off the list", or "blacklisted". We would call this section “New/Probationary Sellers”, which is yet another idea adopted from our grandfather community, RWI Forum. In this section, we would post profiles for new or new-to-Repsneakers sellers which have established a positive/neutral reputation on Repsneakers, but not yet to the extent that they belong on the TS list. We would also migrate profiles for sellers which were previously on the TS list, but fell out of favor with the community for reasons which did not justify blacklisting. Sellers on this "NP list” will have the opportunity to move up to the TS list if they prove their commitment to the community. The primary purpose of the pinned post is to provide easily-accessible information on the full breadth of sellers on this board, including those which should be avoided (the blacklist). Merely removing sellers from the TS list does the community a disservice, because users will be left with questions about why ‘x’ seller is not on the list, but also isn’t blacklisted. I believe creating a fuller picture of the marketplace options will have a positive effect. It may also result in probationary sellers finding more motivation to earn their place back on the TS list, and remain there. This may apply to all or most of the recent removals from the TS List, such as Vicky and UABat, as well as new sellers like Firecloud and Wedosneakers. Let me know what you guys think of the idea. I hope all my fellow Americans had a good Independence Day! 🇺🇸
Wall Street Week Ahead for the trading week beginning June 29th, 2020
Good Saturday afternoon to all of you here on StockMarket. I hope everyone on this sub made out pretty nicely in the market this past week, and is ready for the new trading week ahead. Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning June 29th, 2020.
Fragile economic recovery faces first big test with June jobs report in the week ahead - (Source)
The second half of 2020 is nearly here, and now it’s up to the economy to prove that the stock market was right about a sharp comeback in growth. The first big test will be the June jobs report, out on Thursday instead of its usual Friday release due to the July 4 holiday. According to Refinitiv, economists expect 3 million jobs were created, after May’s surprise gain of 2.5 million payrolls beat forecasts by a whopping 10 million jobs. “If it’s stronger, it will suggest that the improvement is quicker, and that’s kind of what we saw in May with better retail sales, confidence was coming back a little and auto sales were better,” said Kevin Cummins, chief U.S. economist at NatWest Markets. The second quarter winds down in the week ahead as investors are hopeful about the recovery but warily eyeing rising cases of Covid-19 in a number of states. Stocks were lower for the week, as markets reacted to rising cases in Texas, Florida and other states. Investors worry about the threat to the economic rebound as those states move to curb some activities. The S&P 500 is up more than 16% so far for the second quarter, and it is down nearly 7% for the year. Friday’s losses wiped out the last of the index’s June gains. “I think the stock market is looking beyond the valley. It is expecting a V-shaped economic recovery and a solid 2021 earnings picture,” said Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA. He expects large-cap company earnings to be up 30% next year, and small-cap profits to bounce back by 140%. “I think the second half needs to be a ‘show me’ period, proving that our optimism was justified, and we’ll need to see continued improvement in the economic data, and I think we need to see upward revisions to earnings estimates,” Stovall said. Liz Ann Sonders, chief investment strategist at Charles Schwab, said she expects the recovery will not be as smooth as some expect, particularly considering the resurgence of virus outbreaks in sunbelt states and California. “Now as I watch what’s happening I think it’s more likely to be rolling Ws,” rather than a V, she said. “It’s not just predicated on a second wave. I’m not sure we ever exited the first wave.” Even without actual state shutdowns, the virus could slow economic activity. “That doesn’t mean businesses won’t shut themselves down, or consumers won’t back down more,” she said.
In the second half of the year, the market should turn its attention to the election, but Sonders does not expect much reaction to it until after Labor Day. RealClearPolitics average of polls shows Democrat Joe Biden leading President Donald Trump by 10 percentage points, and the odds of a Democratic sweep have been rising. Biden has said he would raise corporate taxes, and some strategists say a sweep would be bad for business, due to increased regulation and higher taxes. Trump is expected to continue using tariffs, which unsettles the market, though both candidates are expected to take a tough stance on China. “If it looks like the Senate stays Republican than there’s less to worry about in terms of policy changes,” Sonders said. “I don’t think it’s ever as binary as some people think.” Stovall said a quick study shows that in the four presidential election years back to 1960, where the first quarter was negative, and the second quarter positive, stocks made gains in the second half. Those were 1960 when John Kennedy took office, 1968, when Richard Nixon won; 1980 when Ronald Reagan’s was elected to his first term; and 1992, the first win by Bill Clinton. Coincidentally, in all of those years, the opposing party gained control of the White House.
The stocks market’s strong second-quarter showing came after the Fed and Congress moved quickly to inject the economy with trillions in stimulus. That unlocked credit markets and triggered a stampede by companies to restructure or issue debt. About $2 trillion in fiscal spending was aimed at consumers and businesses, who were in sudden need of cash after the abrupt shutdown of the economy. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin both testify before the House Financial Services Committee Tuesday on the response to the virus. That will be important as markets look ahead to another fiscal package from Congress this summer, which is expected to provide aid to states and local governments; extend some enhanced benefits for unemployment, and provide more support for businesses. “So much of it is still so fluid. There are a bunch of fiscal items that are rolling off. There’s talk about another fiscal stimulus payment like they did last time with a $1,200 check,” said Cummins. Strategists expect Congress to bicker about the size and content of the stimulus package but ultimately come to an agreement before enhanced unemployment benefits run out at the end of July. Cummins said state budgets begin a new year July 1, and states with a critical need for funds may have to start letting workers go, as they cut expenses. The Trump administration has indicated the jobs report Thursday could help shape the fiscal package, depending on what it shows. The federal supplement to state unemployment benefits has been $600 a week, but there is opposition to extending that, and strategists expect it to be at least cut in half. The unemployment rate is expected to fall to 12.2% from 13.3% in May. Cummins said he had expected 7.2 million jobs, well above the consensus, and an unemployment rate of 11.8%. As of last week, nearly 20 million people were collecting state unemployment benefits, and millions more were collecting under a federal pandemic aid program. “The magnitude here and whether it’s 3 million or 7 million is kind of hard to handicap to begin with,” Cummins said. Economists have preferred to look at unemployment claims as a better real time read of employment, but they now say those numbers could be impacted by slow reporting or double filing. “There’s no clarity on how you define the unemployed in the Covid 19 environment,” said Chris Rupkey, chief financial economist at MUFG Union Bank. “If there’s 30 million people receiving insurance, unemployment should be above 20%.
This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:
The economy is moving in the right direction, as many economic data points are coming in substantially better than what the economists expected. From May job gains coming in more than 10 million higher than expected and retail sales soaring a record 18%, how quickly the economy is bouncing back has surprised nearly everyone. “As good as the recent economic data has been, we want to make it clear, it could still take years for the economy to fully come back,” explained LPL Financial Senior Market Strategist Ryan Detrick. “Think of it like building a house. You get all the big stuff done early, then some of the small things take so much longer to finish; I’m looking at you crown molding.” Here’s the hard truth; it might take years for all of the jobs that were lost to fully recover. In fact, during the 10 recessions since 1950, it took an average of 30 months for lost jobs to finally come back. As the LPL Chart of the Day shows, recoveries have taken much longer lately. In fact, it took four years for the jobs lost during the tech bubble recession of the early 2000s to come back and more than six years for all the jobs lost to come back after the Great Recession. Given many more jobs were lost during this recession, it could takes many years before all of them indeed come back.
The economy is going the right direction, and if there is no major second wave outbreak it could surprise to the upside. Importantly, this economic recovery will still be a long and bumpy road.
Nasdaq - Russell Spread Pulling the Rubber Band Tight
The Nasdaq has been outperforming every other US-based equity index over the last year, and nowhere has the disparity been wider than with small caps. The chart below compares the performance of the Nasdaq and Russell 2000 over the last 12 months. While the performance disparity is wide now, through last summer, the two indices were tracking each other nearly step for step. Then last fall, the Nasdaq started to steadily pull ahead before really separating itself in the bounce off the March lows. Just to illustrate how wide the gap between the two indices has become, over the last six months, the Nasdaq is up 11.9% compared to a decline of 15.8% for the Russell 2000. That's wide!
In order to put the recent performance disparity between the two indices into perspective, the chart below shows the rolling six-month performance spread between the two indices going back to 1980. With a current spread of 27.7 percentage points, the gap between the two indices hasn't been this wide since the days of the dot-com boom. Back in February 2000, the spread between the two indices widened out to more than 50 percentage points. Not only was that period extreme, but ten months before that extreme reading, the spread also widened out to more than 51 percentage points. The current spread is wide, but with two separate periods in 1999 and 2000 where the performance gap between the two indices was nearly double the current level, that was a period where the Nasdaq REALLY outperformed small caps.
To illustrate the magnitude of the Nasdaq's outperformance over the Russell 2000 from late 1998 through early 2000, the chart below shows the performance of the two indices beginning in October 1998. From that point right on through March of 2000 when the Nasdaq peaked, the Nasdaq rallied more than 200% compared to the Russell 2000 which was up a relatively meager 64%. In any other environment, a 64% gain in less than a year and a half would be excellent, but when it was under the shadow of the surging Nasdaq, it seemed like a pittance.
The US equity market made its most recent peak on June 8th. From the March 23rd low through June 8th, the average stock in the large-cap Russell 1,000 was up more than 65%! Since June 8th, the average stock in the index is down more than 11%. Below we have broken the index into deciles (10 groups of 100 stocks each) based on simple share price as of June 8th. Decile 1 (marked "Highest" in the chart) contains the 10% of stocks with the highest share prices. Decile 10 (marked "Lowest" in the chart) contains the 10% of stocks with the lowest share prices. As shown, the highest priced decile of stocks are down an average of just 4.8% since June 8th, while the lowest priced decile of stocks are down an average of 21.5%. It's pretty remarkable how performance gets weaker and weaker the lower the share price gets.
It's hard to believe that sentiment can change so fast in the market that one day investors and traders are bidding up stocks to record highs, but then the next day sell them so much that it takes the market down over 2%. That's exactly what happened not only in the last two days but also two weeks ago. While the 5% pullback from a record high back on June 10th took the Nasdaq back below its February high, this time around, the Nasdaq has been able to hold above those February highs.
In the entire history of the Nasdaq, there have only been 12 periods prior to this week where the Nasdaq closed at an all-time high on one day but dropped more than 2% the next day. Those occurrences are highlighted in the table below along with the index's performance over the following week, month, three months, six months, and one year. We have also highlighted each occurrence that followed a prior one by less than three months in gray. What immediately stands out in the table is how much gray shading there is. In other words, these types of events tend to happen in bunches, and if you count the original occurrence in each of the bunches, the only two occurrences that didn't come within three months of another occurrence (either before or after) were July 1986 and May 2017. In terms of market performance following prior occurrences, the Nasdaq's average and median returns were generally below average, but there is a pretty big caveat. While the average one-year performance was a gain of 1.0% and a decline of 23.6% on a median basis, the six occurrences that came between December 1999 and March 2000 all essentially cover the same period (which was very bad) and skew the results. Likewise, the three occurrences in the two-month stretch from late November 1998 through January 1999 where the Nasdaq saw strong gains also involves a degree of double-counting. As a result of these performances at either end of the extreme, it's hard to draw any trends from the prior occurrences except to say that they are typically followed by big moves in either direction. The only time the Nasdaq wasn't either 20% higher or lower one year later was in 1986.
In the mid-1980s the market began to evolve into a tech-driven market and the market’s focus in early summer shifted to the outlook for second quarter earnings of technology companies. Over the last three trading days of June and the first nine trading days in July, NASDAQ typically enjoys a rally. This 12-day run has been up 27 of the past 35 years with an average historical gain of 2.5%. This year the rally may have begun a day early, today and could last until on or around July 14. After the bursting of the tech bubble in 2000, NASDAQ’s mid-year rally had a spotty track record from 2002 until 2009 with three appearances and five no-shows in those years. However, it has been quite solid over the last ten years, up nine times with a single mild 0.1% loss in 2015. Last year, NASDAQ advanced a solid 4.6% during the 12-day span.
Tech Historically Leads Market Higher Until Q3 of Election Years
As of yesterday’s close DJIA was down 8.8% year-to-date. S&P 500 was down 3.5% and NASDAQ was up 12.1%. Compared to the typical election year, DJIA and S&P 500 are below historical average performance while NASDAQ is above average. However this year has not been a typical election year. Due to the covid-19, the market suffered the damage of the shortest bear market on record and a new bull market all before the first half of the year has come to an end. In the surrounding Seasonal Patten Charts of DJIA, S&P 500 and NASDAQ, we compare 2020 (as of yesterday’s close) to All Years and Election Years. This year’s performance has been plotted on the right vertical axis in each chart. This year certainly has been unlike any other however some notable observations can be made. For DJIA and S&P 500, January, February and approximately half of March have historically been weak, on average, in election years. This year the bear market ended on March 23. Following those past weak starts, DJIA and S&P 500 historically enjoyed strength lasting into September before experiencing any significant pullback followed by a nice yearend rally. NASDAQ’s election year pattern differs somewhat with six fewer years of data, but it does hint to a possible late Q3 peak.
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Friday 7.3.20 Before Market Open:
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Micron Technology, Inc. $48.49
Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:00 PM ET on Monday, June 29, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.71 per share on revenue of $5.27 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.70 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 71% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for earnings of $0.40 to $0.70 per share. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 29.00% with revenue increasing by 10.07%. Short interest has increased by 7.6% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 8.0% from its open following the earnings release to be 0.9% below its 200 day moving average of $48.94. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Thursday, June 11, 2020 there was some notable buying of 46,037 contracts of the $60.00 call expiring on Friday, July 17, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 4.6% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 8.4% move in recent quarters.
General Mills, Inc. (GIS) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:00 AM ET on Wednesday, July 1, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.04 per share on revenue of $4.89 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $1.10 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 69% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 25.30% with revenue increasing by 17.50%. Short interest has decreased by 9.4% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 2.7% from its open following the earnings release to be 7.8% above its 200 day moving average of $54.91. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Wednesday, June 24, 2020 there was some notable buying of 8,573 contracts of the $60.00 call expiring on Friday, July 17, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 6.6% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 3.0% move in recent quarters.
FedEx Corp. (FDX) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:00 PM ET on Tuesday, June 30, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.42 per share on revenue of $16.31 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $1.65 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 61% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 71.66% with revenue decreasing by 8.41%. Short interest has increased by 10.4% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 43.9% from its open following the earnings release to be 7.6% below its 200 day moving average of $140.75. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Thursday, June 25, 2020 there was some notable buying of 1,768 contracts of the $145.00 call expiring on Thursday, July 2, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 4.6% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 7.7% move in recent quarters.
Conagra Brands, Inc. (CAG) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:30 AM ET on Tuesday, June 30, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.66 per share on revenue of $3.24 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.69 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 66% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 83.33% with revenue increasing by 23.99%. Short interest has decreased by 38.3% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 6.3% from its open following the earnings release to be 6.4% above its 200 day moving average of $30.68. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Thursday, June 11, 2020 there was some notable buying of 3,239 contracts of the $29.00 put expiring on Thursday, July 2, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 4.7% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 10.8% move in recent quarters.
Constellation Brands, Inc. (STZ) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:30 AM ET on Wednesday, July 1, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.91 per share on revenue of $1.97 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $2.12 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 53% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 13.57% with revenue decreasing by 13.69%. Short interest has increased by 20.8% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 25.2% from its open following the earnings release to be 5.2% below its 200 day moving average of $178.34. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Tuesday, June 9, 2020 there was some notable buying of 888 contracts of the $195.00 call expiring on Friday, October 16, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 3.1% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 5.7% move in recent quarters.
Capri Holdings Limited (CPRI) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:30 AM ET on Wednesday, July 1, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.32 per share on revenue of $1.18 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.34 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 39% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for earnings of $0.68 to $0.73 per share. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 49.21% with revenue decreasing by 12.20%. Short interest has increased by 35.1% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 56.7% from its open following the earnings release to be 44.0% below its 200 day moving average of $25.67. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Thursday, June 4, 2020 there was some notable buying of 11,042 contracts of the $17.50 put expiring on Friday, August 21, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 10.8% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 6.7% move in recent quarters.
X Financial (XYF) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 5:00 PM ET on Tuesday, June 30, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.09 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 25% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 55.00% with revenue increasing by 763.52%. Short interest has increased by 1.0% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 1.2% from its open following the earnings release to be 37.7% below its 200 day moving average of $1.47. Overall earnings estimates have been unchanged since the company's last earnings release. The stock has averaged a 4.9% move on earnings in recent quarters.
Acuity Brands, Inc. (AYI) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 8:40 AM ET on Tuesday, June 30, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.14 per share on revenue of $809.25 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $1.09 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 42% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 51.90% with revenue decreasing by 14.60%. Short interest has increased by 48.5% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 2.4% from its open following the earnings release to be 23.4% below its 200 day moving average of $110.25. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. Option traders are pricing in a 9.2% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 8.2% move in recent quarters.
Methode Electronics, Inc. (MEI) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:00 AM ET on Tuesday, June 30, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.77 per share on revenue of $211.39 million. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 45% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 24.19% with revenue decreasing by 20.53%. Short interest has increased by 6.2% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 1.7% from its open following the earnings release to be 9.0% below its 200 day moving average of $32.97. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. Option traders are pricing in a 18.4% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 8.1% move in recent quarters.
UniFirst Corporation (UNF) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 8:00 AM ET on Wednesday, July 1, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.17 per share on revenue of $378.28 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $1.25 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 44% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 52.44% with revenue decreasing by 16.63%. Short interest has decreased by 2.7% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 14.1% from its open following the earnings release to be 8.4% below its 200 day moving average of $186.14. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. The stock has averaged a 7.0% move on earnings in recent quarters.
PSA: get diagnosed if you feel you can have celiac disease
Hi all. I read a lot of posts here about how people stop eating gluten and they’re over from whatever they were affected with. That’s a good thing. But, PLEASE PLEASE, tell your doctor you NEED to be properly diagnosed. These are the reason I recommend you to do that: 1) You will have confirmation whether or not you have celiac disease. By the way, there are not “degrees” of the desease, it is a binary thing: you have it or not. When you hear someone telling “I am celiac, but not that much”, that is bullshit. That person is celiac, but the symptoms (diarrhea, headaches, skin problems,...) are not severe. Please remind that celiac disease is a autoimmune disorder. 2) If you are celiac and get diagnosed, you will know how damaged is your body. I assume you all know that the bowel is affected by the disease, the villi can disappear completely (image ) until the point it doesn’t work anymore or you can develop a cancer. Knowing how is your villi is important. 3) If you quit gluten in your own, without a diagnose for a time and the doctor finally ask you for a test, you will have to eat gluten for some weeks before the medical appointment. Your symptoms during that time will be worse than before. You need to get tested ASAP. 4) Celiac disease is a genetic disease. If you have it is because someone in your family has. Maybe you remember your grandpa being always sick or something. About 80% of the cases show no symptoms, but the internal damage is there. If you get diagnosed and have the desease, your closest family should be tested as well. 5) Statistically speaking, the more celiac people are, the more products will be and, because economies of scale, the cheaper will be. The more demand the restaurants have, the more options we will have. This one is for the greater good. 6) Don’t get fooled: the ONLY way to be healthy is a STRICT gluten free diet. No medicines, no meditation, nothing. Just stay away from gluten products AND cross contamination. And last, but not least, if you are tested with a negative results, but in your experience living gluten free improves your live, maybe you suffer from non-celiac gluten sensitivity. Tell your doctor. I can open another post about this if you will. Sorry for the lengthy post. Stay safe everyone.
I put together a little cheat sheet of how I think about which trade structure I use for what. This is obviously only covering a small portion of the trade universe but I thought it would be helpful to those a little overwhelmed with the choice within an options chain. The key here is keeping things simple. Knowing what a trade is expressing and how that applies to what you think/hope will happen. That main point is not wasting money with sloppy call or put purchases, and taking what the options market is giving you. Keep it simple, use the expected move and get the universe of trades closer to the binary decisions we make when we trade stock. Here's the full flowchart, bullish, bearish and neutral. You'll notice that it organizes by short premium in the middle and lower probability long premium trades as it gets to the edges (duh) but what I think is helpful is how even on the long premium trades it accounts for selling as much premium as possible to finance that view. (or at least an easier way to think about it) The focus is on 4 common (defined risk, multi-leg) options trades. Call spreads, put spreads, butterflies and condors and when to use them based on your expectations versus the crowd's. This is by no means an exhaustive list of potential trades. But these are a great starting point for those looking to use some smarter trade structures to express directional views. Strikes can of course be adjusted to slightly alter each trade. For instance, a call spread to the expected move can be set to be more in the money to get the breakeven in line with the stock, creating something quite similar to a stock alternative. And as a decision tree on each: Bullish Bearish Neutral Full post here where I go through some examples in CRM and ADBE over on OptionsEye. Let me know if you have any questions or any other ideas of trades you like in similar situations.
Trying to get my PC screen to be sent over serial and displayed on a nokia 5110, I think the PC side works but I can't get it to display on the screen correctly. If someone could look over my code that would be great.
I'm not exactly sure of the formatting NumPY uses to convert image to binary array, so the arduino code might just be recieving the data incorrectly. I don't know how to fix that if that is the issue though. PC python code
so this is kinda a wierd story. I was planning to restart my computer. (cant remember why) I spend most of my time watching youtube videos so i had alot of tabs open. So i was watching the videos then deleting the tab but not opening new tabs. So i was down 2 i think 1 it was a pretty long video so i tried to open a youtube home page tab just to look while i listened to the video. And this is a short exerp of what i got.
I heard that on the radio this morning while I was out and went, "Huh." There are various forms of this saying, but the general meaning is that, no matter how beneficial the policies or structures you put into place, the organizational culture will determine whether they will be successful or not. And culture is why SGI will never change. Within just the last 24 hours, we've seen several situations that illustrate this:
Members with Special Needs needing assistance to attend 50K There was a handful of youth division who wanted to go to 50K who had special needs and requested that their parent/family member accompany them to 50K. Special needs included anything from anxiety disorders, to members with schizophrenia, to members with varying levels of autism. Their parents/guardians were always over 39 years old and every time a special needs member wanted their 39+ parent/guardian/caretaker to attend, we had to send a letter to our Zone office requesting to do so. Wouldn't you know, every time we submitted such an application, they were all REJECTED! I actually don't recall a single application for one of my region's special needs requests being approved. The Zone office would say something along the lines of, "The parent over 39 can drive/transport the member to the venue, but they CANNOT go into the actual 50K venue." If that was the case, why not just say that in the memo you sent out? Source In my region (we all took the same bus) we had a girl in a wheelchair who usually is fine on her own but really needed extra assistance due to the crowds. She ended up pushing herself because we all got separated. We were all so hussled by the door people (Soka Group maybe) to get in and it was a huge problem for them that she had to go around to a different accessible door. Then we were in trouble with the Byakuren for not being all together. Then in trouble for not all sitting together because we had one fewer people than expected since she could not fit with her chair where they led us. The whole thing was a mess and there was apparently no planning for accommodating people with disabilities. Source My experience of the day was one of long line outside, rushed activity to get us in and seated (single file line please, full groups only please, follow this geisha in a pink t-shirt, yes she's very charming, why was your group let through if you are missing one? oh dear you have a member in a wheel chair? you've messed up our seating count). Source I'm so glad you brought this up, although I'm so sadly not surprised that this sort of thing is STILL a huge deal-breaker problem. WAY BACK IN 1987, I'd only been a member of SGI (then known as NSA) less than 5 months when I was chosen to go on the big bus trip to march in the New Freedom Bell parade over July 4 or thereabouts. There was this young woman I knew; her boyfriend was in the group just like mine was, and she and I had gotten to know each other somewhat through practices and meetings. She had some anxiety issues. When we got there, she realized that they were assigning people randomly to rooms and started to panic. She begged me to room with her instead! I said I'd see what I could do. When we got to the desk where we got our room assignments, I explained (using small words) that my friend had an anxiety disorder and could they please put us in the same room? They refused. How hard could it have been? If I was assigned to room with Stranger Beth and she was assigned to room with Stranger Karen, why not just move either Beth into her place (or Karen into mine) so she could be in my room with me?? It's not rocket surgery! They were both strangers to us, after all. But no. Rulez is rulez and that was the end of it. It turned out okay, but c'mon. It could have been MUCH better and MUCH more compassionate toward someone who clearly needed it, with no effort on their part - I offered to escort my roommate (if she was already in the room) to her new room (my friend's former room) if need be so no one else needed to do anything. All the performers were staying in the same building, after all; it was just more of SGI's rigid stupidity (the best kind!). Source
The Americans with Disabilities Act was passed in 1990. 30 years ago. That prohibits discrimination against people with disabilities in several spheres (employment, transportation, public accommodations, communications and access to state and local government’ programs and services) and requires that buildings, facilites, and transit vehicles are accessible to people with disabilities. But guess what? Churches are exempt! Yet one more shitty strike against religion. What can we conclude from the perennial, unchanging nature of the SGI's lack of sensible accommodation of people with disabilities? Why such a rigid fixation on the "rulez is rulez" mentality? It's because SGI doesn't really give a shit about disabled people. SGI only cares about who will be most useful to SGI, and if a given person is perceived as less useful, then SGI doesn't give a shit about that person. And this is absolutely endemic, BAKED INTO SGI's organizational culture.
They just don't wanna.
It is so fundamental to SGI's organizational culture that the SGI leaders organizing the crowd control for these activities still don't seem aware that disabled people even exist! Thus, the requests of the disabled for inclusion on their own terms are routinely rejected by SGI, which believes that everybody needs to fit SGI and not the other way around. People who are different are icky and annoying. They always want something that isn't on the menu; they always expect everyone to bend over backwards for them; they think they're so special. THEY expect everybody to change everything for THEM. Well, in the Ikeda cult, everybody's the same Shin'ichi Yamamoto clone, so they need to fit the hell in and stop expecting special treatment all the time! SGI is a deeply selfish organization. The members exist to serve SGI and that should satisfy them! Moreover, they should all feel deeply GRATEFUL for any and every opportunity to give more to SGI, do more for SGI, and promote SGI in whatever way they can. THAT should be their mission in life and they should be happy with that! SGI doesn't care about LGBTQIANB people, either. Oh, it will accept their money, count them as members, use them however appears expedient, but THEY need to accommodate themselves to SGI-USA, NOT the other way around! Take a look:
Non-Binary Support As SGI-USA strives to be the model of worldwide kosen-rufu, we will be introducing a non-binary category for members and guests that don't identify as male or female. The Gohonzon application and MIS database will be updated with a new non-binary category. For non-binary members that don't feel comfortable being supported by a specific division, they will be encouraged to participate in 4-divisional activities. For non-binary members that are comfortable being supported by a specific division, they will be invited to participate in those divisional activities. SGI-USA official policy
How suckadelic is THAT?? SGI-USA is adamant about its "IRONCLAD four divisional system"! Those people who don't want to conform and fit in, well, we'll just expect them to do their best, given the way things are. They'll fit in, one way or another. The way things are is not going to change! Certainly not for THEM!
Many SGI members tout the apparent acceptance of gays and lesbians — and the active recruitment of new members at Gay Pride celebrations — as a jaw-dropping miracle of positive change in SGI. For decades, gay SGI members remonstrated with SGI leaders about organizational hostility toward gays. Did these sincere efforts finally bring about a major change in SGI? I think not. After all, this “change” benefits the organization by opening up a new constituency of eager recruits, many of whom are idealistic and have felt alienated from traditional religion and are seeking a spiritual “home.” Many have significant disposable income and often fewer family obligations. Plus, gays are a demographic group renowned for loyalty to organizations and advertisers who reach out to them (as many marketers have learned so lucratively over the past decade.) In my opinion, informed by the fact that I'm a lesbian: “Acceptance” of gays is not a fundamental change in the SGI. Rather, it’s a sign that SGI recognizes a cult-recruitment jackpot when they see one. So don’t hold your breath waiting for the SGI to take a stand against the Federal Marriage Amendment. (SGI claims to be apolitical, despite their history of hiring lobbyists in the U.S.) Besides, discrimination against gays has always been and always will be indefensible in light of Nichiren Buddhist teachings. So with social attitudes toward gays becoming more accepting, SGI had no doctrinal leg to stand on, and was quickly losing it's social excuse for discrimination. Welcome to SGI, homos! When I worked for SGI-USA in 1998, I requested that they expand their health insurance policy to cover the same-sex domestic partners of their gay and lesbian employees. The proposal was rejected by the SGI- USA Board of Directors. Gays and lesbians can get "married" in SGI, sure. But the SGI doesn't put its money where its mouth is and actually recognize these relationships as equal to heterosexual marriage. So. Read newspaper reports about Soka Gakkai going back more than forty years. You'll see that the more things change, the more they stay the same. Source While the American Soka Gakkan admits same-sex marriage, the Japanese Komeito can not yet say yes. [I am] [Komeito is] following the LDP against the same sex marriage. https://t.co/QgrgwUMqti — Tomohiro Machyama (@TomoMachi) July 6, 2019 Source
That guy can't scratch his balls without the Soka Gakkai's permission.
SGI LGBT is now Courageous Freedom, this new name is more inclusive and includes all the new sexual designations. Source First of all, "Courageous Freedom" is meaningless word salad gibberish. No person who sees "Courageous Freedom" is going to think, "Aha! That means LGBTQ friendly!" Secondly, the whole problem with SGI is the categorizing of people, the way SGI assigns everyone to a box and there you are - that's your box. MD/WD, YMD/YWD. And the males are always more influential/powerful... Source
WHY is SGI this way? WHY is it so hidebound, backwards, parochial, and provincial in its attitudes? Because that's how all those old men in Japan insist it be, and how it's going to remain. The ideal timeframe is 1930s-1950s Japan, and that zeitgeist is the defining element of SGI culture. SGI will never change. NEVER. This is a serious problem in Japanese culture, which means that all the SGI colonies inherit it as their own problem, too.
Bullying of LGBT students at ‘epidemic’ levels in Japan: Human Rights Watch Titled “The Nail That Sticks Out Gets Hammered Down: LGBT Bullying and Exclusion in Japanese Schools,” the 84-page report said LGBT students routinely suffer harassment, threats and violence in a nation where prejudices against sexual minorities remain alive in the school yard. HRW said the government is largely to blame for this, turning a blind eye to the root cause of bullying and blandly pushing instead for an ill-defined “climate of harmony” in schools in which everyone lives by the rules. Source
How very SGI... At that link, you can see SIX instances of "harmonious/harmoniously" that I found in a SINGLE SGI article!
When you are a general member, the “inside baseball” of the organization is kept from your view. Discrimination of all kinds is practiced behind closed doors, or in Japanese, or by inference among older members who are very much rooted in the conservative social norms of Japan. This is a Japanese organization, based in Japan, run exclusively by Japanese people in the senior leadership positions. If you are LGTBQ, it’s clear why you would be a prime target for recruitment (marginalized member of society), but it’s also very likely that you would never be offered leadership opportunities. And in the SGI, there’s a huge difference between members and leaders - and that’s where the hurt/pain of exclusion really comes into play. If you’re not a leader, you’ll never be invited to the best/most interesting/most important meetings. You won’t be chosen for the plum assignments. You won’t get face time with the national leaders. There will be a thousand and one distinctions drawn between your status (low) and leadership status (high). So...despite what ND [Nichiren Daishonin] says about all people being potential Buddhas, your role in the organization would be severely limited. And if you ever expressed frustration over this, you would be told you aren’t practicing correctly, and that it’s your karma that has caused this suffering. This is gaslighting and it’s incredibly destructive. Source
No matter what policies are suggested or even adopted, the SGI will never change, because its fundamental culture is inimical to the changes people want. People can want change all they want, but the Japanese religion for Japanese people that is the Society for Glorifying Ikeda will not. All that focus on studying those execrable "The New Human Revolution" novels with all their made up shit and lies is to drive home how everything in the SGI organization is supposed to be. THAT is the lesson! "The New Human Revolution" has become the new Gosho-equivalent for SGI, a holy scripture that all are required to adore and obey. The lessons of the Internal Reassessment Group (IRG), that grassroots group of SGI members and leaders who suggested changes that would improve SGI-USA, remain as relevant and valid today as they did over 20 years ago:
If by that you mean efforts to bring about the kind of reforms that the IRG attempted, then yes, I do think that's a futile effort. The organization is what it is. Accept that and work within it, or if you can't stand it, leave. Changing it is not, in my opinion, an option.
You will never be permitted to "be the change" because no change is permitted.
Hi all, It’s time for the results! Thank you to everyone who took the time to respond - we had over 1600 responses, which is great! These insights wouldn’t be possible without your time and support. As always, neither myself nor this survey are associated with Intelligent Systems or Nintendo in any way. Please direct feedback about the game itself to the official channels. Now let’s get into it!
PreviousSurveyResults:February_2020_State_of_the_Game_Survey ~ Demographics ~ 54.3% began playing FE:H in February 2017, with 22.6% more joining during the first year of the game. 13.0% of respondents joined during the second year, 7.8% joined during the third, and 1.5% joined during the fourth year (the last 3 months). The age range breakdown of respondents is as follows:
(2.9%) 12 – 15 years old
(15.0%) 16 – 18 years old
(23.5%) 19 – 21 years old
(20.7%) 22 – 24 years old
(27.0%) 25 – 30 years old
(8.5%) 31 – 40 years old
(0.9%) 40+ years old
77.5% of respondents identified as Male, 17.7% as Female, and 2.6% as Non-binary. 18.5% of respondents have never missed a daily login (though note that this option was added many hours after the survey’s release). A further 44.2% have missed less than a month’s worth of logins, 12.8% missed 1-2 months, 9.6% missed 3-6 months, 4.7% missed 7-12 months, and 3,8% missed over a year’s worth. 34.8% report being F2P, while 29.8% have spent less than $100, 16.2% spent between $100 - $499, 6.3% spent between $500 - $999, and 10.4% have spent over $1000. 34.8% last spent money on FE:H during the fourth year of the game (the last 3 months), while 12.0% last spent money during the third year of the game, 9.4% last spent during the second year of the game, and 6.6% last spent money during the first year of the game. ~ Summoning ~ “Which of the following banners have you used orbs on at least once?”
(63.0%) Harmony Amid Chaos
(57.0%) The Start of It All
(56.4%) Mythic Hero: Bramimond
(51.8%) Journey Begins
(47.3%) Legendary Heroes: Chrom
(43.2%) Familial Festivities
(37.2%) Double Special Heroes
“Which of the following banners did you use the most orbs on?”
(23.4%) Harmony Amid Chaos
(16.9%) Journey Begins
(16.3%) Mythic Hero: Bramimond
(14.4%) The Start of It All
(8.5%) Familial Festivities
(8.4%) Legendary Heroes: Chrom
(6.6%) Double Special Heroes
“What was your favorite banner?”
(23.8%) Harmony Amid Chaos
(18.3%) The Start of It All
(14.9%) Journey Begins
(13.5%) Mythic Hero: Bramimond
(8.5%) Double Special Heroes
(7.8%) Legendary Heroes: Chrom
(4.9%) Familial Festivities
“Did you spend money specifically to summon on any of the banners below?”
(7.9%) Harmony Amid Chaos
(7.8%) The Start of It All
(7.1%) Journey Begins
(6.7%) Mythic Hero: Bramimond
(4.3%) Familial Festivities
(4.2%) Legendary Heroes: Chrom
(4.0%) Double Special Heroes
“If you could only pick one method of making old Seasonal heroes available, which would you choose?”
(46.4%) Seasonal heroes are only available once a year on a re-run of their original banner
(25.7%) Seasonal heroes are only available through Double Special Heroes banners, and no seasonal banners are re-run.
(6.5%) Seasonal heroes are only available through Legendary and Mythical banners, and no seasonal banners are re-run.
43.8% would like Double Special Heroes banners to continue excluding year-one seasonals, compared to 31.9% who want them to include year-one seasonals. 4.19/5.00 is the average rating of how satisfied respondents were with the new feature allowing for your choice of free 5*-focus after 40 summons on New Heroes banners. 80.9% rated their satisfaction at a 4/5 or above. 36.1% reached the 40 summons needed for the feature allowing their choice of free 5*-focus on Journey Begins. 63.9% did not reach 40 summons on Journey Begins. Of those who reached 40 summons, 51.2% say that they spent more orbs on the banner than they would have if the feature did not exist, while 19.8% say that they spent less orbs that they would have. 28.9% reported no change in orb spending behavior as a result of the feature. ~ Hall of Forms ~ “In this Hall of Forms, which Forma was your best unit?”
(56.7%) Olwen (WoT)
(9.9%) Reinhardt (WoT)
“In this Hall of Forms, which Forma was your worst unit?”
(26.3%) Reinhardt (WoT)
(3.5%) Olwen (WoT)
2.70/5.00 is the average rating of the addition of Forma Souls. 36.5% rated their feelings on Forma Souls at a 2/5 or below, while 16.2% rated 4/5 or above. 11.6% purchased a Forma Soul, compared to 88.1% who did not. Of those who purchased a Forma Soul, 30.6% used it on Olwen (WoT), 29.7% used it on Leif, 26.1% used it on Finn, and 13.5% used it on Reinhardt (WoT) Of those who have not purchased a Forma Soul, 71.1% say that they would never purchase a Forma Soul regardless of who is featured, while 28.8% say that they would if a certain hero was featured. Of those who would pay a non-zero amount for a Forma Soul, $9.31 is the average of the amounts respondents would be willing to pay for a Forma Soul with no additional orbs. ~ Limited Hero Battles ~ 47.5% completed all of the available Limited Hero Battle maps on their hardest difficulties, compared to 51.5% who did not. 19.5% needed to reference guides, videos, or other players’ clears in order to complete Limited Hero Battle maps, compared to 75.6% who did not. 3.19/5.00 is the average rating of preparedness for the Limited Hero Battles. 29.4% rated their preparedness at a 2/5 or below, while 44.4% rated their preparedness at a 4/5 or above. 64.6% had enough heroes to form a fully-built team of four for all of the battles, compared to 28.4% who did not. 3.38/5.00 is the average rating of how challenging respondents found the Limited Hero Battle restrictions. 15.2% rated the difficulty at a 2/5 or below, while 48.2% rated the difficulty at a 4/5 or above. 3.44/5.00 is the average rating for enjoyment of the Limited Hero Battles. 20.4% rated their enjoyment at a 2/5 or below, while 51.7% rather their enjoyment at a 4/5 or above. ~ Divine Codes ~ 52.4% feel positively about the use for Divine Codes, compared to 7.3% who feel negatively. 38.5% are neutral. “Which of the following Divine Code paths is most appealing to you?”
(27.2%) Holy War (Leif, Deirdre, Sigurd, Lewyn, Ishtar (Performing))
(3.0%) Heroes (Alfonse (Spring), Ylgr, Bruno (Spring), Fjorm (New Years), Laevatein (Summer))
51.4% got both 5* heroes from the Limited Time Compile path 3, while 25.6% only got Kagero (Spring), and 5.1% only got Camilla (Spring), while 15.8% got neither. 3.04/5.00 is the average satisfaction rating with the options of Limited Manuals offered so far. 27.3% rated their satisfaction at a 2/5 or below, while 32.8% rated their satisfaction 4/5 or above. ~ Feh Pass and Resplendent Heroes ~ 57.0% feel negatively about the addition of the Feh Pass, compared to 10.1% who feel positively. 31.8% are neutral. Compared to last survey, this is a 13.6% reduction in negative feelings, with a 4.2% increase in positive feelings and the rest going to neutral. 30.7% have purchased the Feh Pass, compared to 69.3% who have not. This is a 6.7% increase compared to the last survey. Of those who have subscribed to Feh Pass, 4.5% have purchased Resplendent Heroes separately, compared to 95.5% who have not. “Which Resplendent Hero is your favorite?”
“Which Resplendent outfit theme is your favorite?”
“If you could only choose 1 of the Feh Pass features to make free, which would you choose?”
(27.8%) Resplendent Heroes
(14.6%) Expanded Summoner Support
(7.5%) Re-Act Button
(6.8%) Exclusive/Extra Quests
~ Miscellaneous ~ “Which game do you want a New Heroes banner from the most?”
(27.9%) Three Houses
(9.2%) Radiant Dawn
(7.7%) Genealogy of the Holy War
(7.5%) Sacred Stones
(7.0%) Path of Radiance
(4.1%) Blazing Blade
(4.0%) TMS #FE
(3.4%) Thracia 776
(3.3%) Gaiden / Shadows of Valentia
(1.9%) Mystery of the Emblem / New Mystery of the Emblem
(1.8%) Binding Blade
(1.8%) Shadow Dragon and the Blade of Light / Shadow Dragon
20.4% feel positively about the introduction of Duo Heroes, compared to 30.4% who feel negatively. 48.6% are neutral. “Which color would you choose / have chosen for the Free 5* Hero: Fire Emblem Leads, assuming you got all colors?”
46.9% were satisfied with their summon from the Free 5* Hero: Fire Emblem Leads event, compared to 48.4% who were not. 67.0% participated in the Voting Jubilee event, compared to 31.7% who did not. 36.4% want to see more Trio Heroes in the future, compared to 33.5% who do not. “Which FE continent / world’s Mythic Heroes are you most excited for?”
(5.2%) Fates Continent
“How many of the Rokkr Remnant accessories have you acquired?”
Heroic Grails is the most desired premium item currency respondents want more of, at 47.8%. Next is Dragonflowers (25.4%), followed by Refining Stones / Divine Dew (15.3%), then Sacred Coins (8.5%). “How much do you care about your rank in the following modes?”
(2.76/5.00 average) Arena
(2.70/5.00 average) Aether Raids
(2.43/5.00 average) PvE game modes with player ranking boards
(1.82/5.00 average) Arena Assault
32.8% have not played any other gacha games besides FE:H, while 19.8% have played 1 other gacha game, 18.6% have played 2, 10.5% have played 3, and 18.3% have played 4 or more. ~ Intelligent Systems Approval Ratings ~ The approval ratings are calculated by the proportion of Approve responses compared to the number of both Approve and Disapprove responses. Percent who approve of the way Intelligent Systems is handling:
62.7% - The addition of new heroes / characters to the game (-7.6)
63.9% - The gacha mechanics and summoning banners (+22.6)
49.8% - The story/plot (+0.7)
86.4% - Unranked PvE game modes (Hero Battles, Forging Bonds, Tactics Drills, Lost Lore, Hall of Forms) (-2.6)
53.3% - Ranked PvE game modes (Voting Gauntlets, Tempest Trials, Grand Conquest, Allegiance Battles, Rokkr Sieges, Mjolnir's Strike) (-6.1)
40.8% - Arena
41.3% - Arena Assault
33.1% - Aether Raids
30.4% believe Intelligent Systems cares about its Free to Play userbase (up 8.7% from the last survey), while 47.4% do not. Since the last survey’s result was the lowest polling for this question in the game’s history, the 8.7% increase brings us to 27.6% lower than we were before the drop). 28.1% approve of the way Intelligent Systems is handling Fire Emblem: Heroes as a whole (up 5.2% from the last survey), while 26.5% disapprove. Since the last survey’s result was the lowest polling for this question in the game’s history, the 5.2% increase brings us to 22.5% lower than we were before the drop).
A NOTE ABOUT METHODOLOGY: The overall approval ratings question above has traditionally been the exact percent of Approve responses, as a proportion with both Neutral and Disapprove responses. Note that this is different than the way approval is calculated for individual modes (the proportion of Approve responses compared to the number of both Approve and Disapprove responses), where Neutral responses are excluded. The difference in calculation has continued this way in order to maintain comparability with previous survey results. For comparisons sake, the overall approval rating trend going by raw Approval percentage over the last 3 surveys is: 50.6% (Dec) -> 22.9% (Feb) -> 28.1% (Apr) Whereas the overall approval rating trend going by proportion of Approve/Disapprove with the Neutrals excluded over the last 3 surveys is: 82.2% (Dec) -> 41.0% (Feb) -> 51.3% (Apr). I’d be interested to know which you prefer / find more valuable, so if you have opinions on it, please let me know in the comments!
~ Bonus Questions ~ 24.4% prefer Feh’s old voice (Kimberly Tierney), while 45.9% prefer Feh’s new voice (Cassandra Lee Morris), with 29.7% unable to decide. “Who is your Favorite Hero added since the last survey?”
Lysithea is the winner, followed by Bramimond, then Y!Minerva.
“What would be the best Trio and why?”: [Selected Responses] ~ Feedback ~ As always, I received lots of great feedback, both in your survey responses and in the thread itself. A heartfelt thank you to all participants for your encouragements and criticisms - these surveys wouldn’t be where they are without your feedback. But it’s not all serious; feedback messages also included: This fantastic song parody by u/juuldude
"*dabs to try and get a Legendary Seliph to exist*"
“according to all known laws of aviation everything still dies to reinhardt”
“Bernadetta was social distancing before it was cool”
“Emblian Empire is grateful for your hard work like always, but slightly annoyed the +10 5-stars question was left out just when I finally completed an old project!”
“Greetings from the massive salt palace of Grado, where Formotiis awaits to either be summoned in the upcoming Fallen banner or to destroy Askr for their impudence! (seriously though its been like three years come on intsys Lyon is RIGHT THERE)”
“hi I was tempted to give a meme answer for the amount I'd be willing to spend on a forma hero but I think you take averages for that stuff so i wrote 0 instead of 69420 you're welcome” – thank you for your restraint :P
“i’m saving orbs to +10 azura this june please wish me luck 🤞🤞🤞” – Beaming luck to your location!
“Imagine this, you were playing P5R a new FEH channel comes out so start to watch it. Morgana's voice is still echoing in your head. Are you going crazy? Has the quarantine got you you?”
“You need orders, please? CHOP the curve. Submit to Dr. Grima and stay home. Iiiit's time to play it safe. Let's not fly and let's not swim publicly unless we have to. I can't stop this thing. A safe distance away is right where I want you. You...like Ike to stay home where he won't spread anything. COVID is powercreep at Alm-alt levels, something nobody wants.”
“In Nino We Trust”
“so like FEH is letting us put actual children to war now like est is a whole fetus and kiran whacky ass put her and her sisters out on a battlefield to fight literal murder clowns and actual satan. like is that me or is that just a little messed up they should be home enjoying Welch fruit snacks while watching paw patrol”
“JILL. WHEN.” – I think I’ve been getting these comments for over 2 years now and they keep getting more desperate ☹
“Remember to stay safe! We're all in a Fog of War map on Classic right now.” – Strangely accurate
And greetings from Chile, Colombia, Finland, Germany, Hong Kong, SEA, South Korea, Vietnam, Kuala Lumpur, Alaska, Florida, New Jersey, North Carolina, The Bahamas, Fodlan, Ravnica, Renais, Tellius, the Alliance, and Bernadetta’s room
And some more personal inquiries:
“Greetings, ShiningSolarSword! Nothing to report.”
“Hey didn't you just do one of these on the Magia Record subreddit?” – Yep :D
“How are you holding up in regards to the coronavirus? Thanks again for still doing these in times like... this.” - I’m doing well all things considered, hope you are as well!
“Hello, this is Azura. I am very angry to be replaced, u/ShiningSolarSword. What even is a Norne and how could she possibly be better than the queen of Valla? I do hope you consider appreciating me in the future, it would be a shame if a certain survey-giver were to turn up dead in the future, not like that’s a threat or anything.” – Y-y-yes, definitely. *quietly foddering Alm to Norne*
“Norne's reign of terror has ended. Reddit user ShiningSolarSword has secretly accepted the way of the Reinhardt by brandishing the tiny-handed grinning Azura.” - *quietly foddering Duo Ephraim to Norne*
“Resplendent Norne + refine when?” – this person knows what’s up
“Can we have another gag survey? Quarantine is boring.” – not a bad idea 👀
~ Closing Remarks ~ If you missed out on responding to this survey when it was available, consider subscribing to FEHSurveys. This subreddit serves as a place to organize FE:H-related surveys, make new releases more visible, and make it easier for users to see when surveys are active. Thanks again to everyone who participated! I hope you find the results interesting, and if there’s anything else you think can be discovered from the data, let me know and I’ll do my best to oblige!
I had a debate about race representation in Zootopia and it turned into something more personal. How do I relieve tension?
So I (white AFAB Non-binary, they/them pronouns please) got into an debate with my friend/coworker, we'll call her June (Black Ciswoman), about Zootopia but it kinda got out of control and became something more personal. It started at work I was talking to another coworker saying I didn't understand one specific line in the movie, June then interjected and explained it to me but followed up and said it's a bad movie. I disagreed with her and we started to debate but it was work and we had to cut it off. a few days later she texted me a link to a video that explained her point. I watched it and the following text conversation happened: Me: Okay I watched the video. From what I understand, they're saying that the race allegory fails because in their world the prey is justified in fearing predators. is that what you were trying to say? June: Well yes, but my point now is that he is saying what I was Saying, and instead of listening and taking my word you had to argue with every little thing I said, never actually letting me make my point. Me: Sorry, I didn't mean to talk over you. However I must ask: how can the preys fear of predators be rational when the predators have no reason to attack? Just because predators have claws and teeth doesn't mean they'll attack because they have no motivation to, and the other prey animals can still be dangerous. Judy is a rabbit who took down a rhino much bigger than her. Isn't saying Judy is right to fear Nick because he's got claws and teeth the same as saying I am right to fear Trent because he's bigger than me and could choke me if he wanted? And the idea that they should fear them because in the past foxes ate rabbits doesn't make sense either because that was a long time ago and the predators don't need to hunt anymore and have no instinct or urge to do it in the present time. Not to mention that was so long ago in their history, the human equivalent would be Neanderthal times. The movie very clearly states they are just as peaceful as prey and the belief their biology sets them apart is unfounded. Even in the natural history museum we see bunnies with sharp teeth and claws meaning. Either way it doesn't seem to make sense why a prey animal should fear a predator. Their fear is based off of what happened in the past or what might happen even though a predator has nothing to gain from hurting them. June: OP that's why the movie doesn't make sense. If the prey have no reason to fear the predators, why do the predators experience racism? and why is that racism justified by the ACTIVE fear that the prey have for the predators? because of weird racial bias forced onto the movie by the writers. if there is no logical explanation for the division between predators and prey the only thing left is illogical bias. Me: Isn't that kinda the point? Racism doesn't make sense in real life do why would it make sense in theirs? I mean if there's a logical explanation as to why people think black people are more violent than white people than I haven't heard it. Isn't the act of discrimination based on a physical characteristic an illogical act? June: yes, but the way the point is made matters. zootopia BARELY gets the point across because its muddled in weird animal biology. and in real life, racism isn't solved by minorities becoming cops. racism doesn't go both ways. I do not want to debate about this movie anymore OP. You obviously have your mind made up and its literally worth my time trying to convince you. if you enjoy zootopia because it's a fun, silly movie you should have just said that. You're allowed to do that. I'm not going to explain racism to you OP. I don’t know why you're so fundamentally unwilling to listen to me about anything, but I'm done. Goodnight. Actually, no one more thing, why wasn’t me, a black woman, saying that zootopia and it's weird race metaphors made me uncomfortable enough for you to just listen? Me: Okay, if you don't want to talk about it anymore that's fine. The reason I wanted to talk about it was because I was afraid if I was missing something offensive that would mean I would have something to work in me and I thought if we talked it out it might help me understand and be a better person. Now it's not your responsibility to help me with that and I understand that. I don't really mind if I have to admit it’s a bad movie I just wanted to figure out what I was missing. But okay I'll leave it be. Wait hold on I didn't realize you texted me after telling me to drop it June: that's fine. You don’t have to reply to anything you don’t want to. And I've explained what you were missing? And you actively argued against it at every turn? Seemingly just for the sake of argument. I even gave you a source that explained better than I could how I felt about and interpreted the movie. Me: It's not that I'm not listening, I might be bad at that and I'm sorry, but I've been reading your texts here and now and I haven't ignored what you’re saying. We are having a debate, we have opposite opinions, one is wrong so in order to find out who it is we present the reason for our beliefs until one of us can't defend something. If I just accepted what you said then that wouldn't be very smart of me. And isn't believing your opinion on race representation because you’re black rather than your argument behind it a little backwards? I do like arguing but only because I feel it's productive. We are exchanging thoughts and essentially having a battle of wits. I don't really care about winning I care about seeing it through to the end. If I lose I've still learned something. Look I don't want to upset you and if you really do want to leave it then I'll walk away now I just... I like figuring things out and I thought that's what we were doing here. June: okay.
You don’t get to decide when you've lost a debate. How does that work? How do you decide that you've lost the debate? Why is it my job to provide you evidence for my experience?
I NEVER WANTED THIS TO BE A DEBATE. I WANTED A CONVERSATION. You forcing me to defend myself on the topic of racism, something I fundamentally have a better understanding of is a microaggression OP.
One of us is not right or wrong because life isn't black and white. This topic isn’t black and white. Literally all you had to do was to acknowledge my feelings about the movie and move on.
And how is my believing my experience (not opinion) backwards? My argument is tied to experience, which most good arguments are. These aren’t opposite opinions unless your platform is that Zootopia is a perfect movie beyond critique. This is you telling me I'm wrong. Me: I'm not trying to force you to do anything, and the debate would just end when one of us couldn't defend something, and it's exactly because you say you having a better understanding that I wanted to talk, I didn't want you to defend your experience I wanted you to tell me your experience so I could understand where you were coming from, but you haven't told me anything about your life or how racism effects you. And I specially said that it wasn't your job to educate me so if you wanted to drop it we could. I was just trying to tell you my thought process so you would understand this comes from a desire to be better and understand not out of malice. My opinion is that it's a good movie and you said "zootopia is a bad movie and does more harm than good and that's just a fact" at work the other day. I don't think it's a perfect movie but our thoughts are very far apart on the spectrum. Yes I think you are wrong about the movie, but that doesn't extend to anything else. And you seem to think I'm wrong. I thought you sending me that link was an invitation to a debate, I misunderstood that, I'm sorry. June: I understand that debate and argument may be how you process information, but you have to know when that needs to stop and you need to be empathetic to someone trying to let you in on their experiences and how they view the world. Me: Okay, I'm going to bed now. It's pretty late for me. See you at work. That was a few days ago, this morning I woke up and found a new text. June: OP to be perfectly clear, I am no longer talking about zootopia. I'm talking about the way you chose to speak to me. If your intent was really to learn from me, you would not have come at me to debate. You would have checked your own bias and privilege and listened to what I was saying, instead of making weirdly aggressive arguments and asking questions YOU ALREADY HAVE PREDETERMINED ANSWERS FOR. That is not how you speak to someone you're trying to listen to. This is me letting you know, your white fragility (look it up) is showing. this does not require a reply. sit and think about it. Me: I don't understand, how was I being aggressive? I didn't insult you or tell you were being ridiculous. I was providing you with logical reasons as to why I thought you were wrong, how is that disrespectful? Again, I misinterpreted your text to the link as an invitation to debate. Had you told me all you wanted was for me to accept that you didn't like it I would've dropped it, but I didn't realise that was what you wanted. I would ask anyone to defend their option/belief about something. Remember you interjected yourself into a conversation I was having with someone else and then made a claim. We weren't even talking about the quality of the movie just how I didn't understand one specific line. Then you butted in and changed the subject. You're also telling me you have a better understanding of racism but not telling me how you understand it. It seems like you want me to accept that because your black but being black doesn't make you an expert on race politics. I'm trans and I don't know everything about gender politics. Even if I did I wouldn't use the fact that I'm trans as an argument, I would use research and reason to defend myself. That's what I was asking of you. I thought you were trying to change what I believe about the movie and while I'm open to that I don't change my mind with out a solid reason so I asked you for a reason and if I can provide a good counter argument then it's not a good reason. Again you said "zootopia is a bad movie and does more harm than good and that's just a fact" at work when we first brought it up, that was far more aggressive than anything I've stated here, in this whole conversation I haven't stated anything I've said as I fact. that wasn't you saying how you feel that was you telling me it was a fact. If it is true it's a fact than you should easily be able to explain it. if you are going to make a claim, especially on you know is unpopular, than you should be ready to defend it. An if what you say is true than your race should never even come into the discussion. The truth is the truth if it comes out of you or a white guy. Now if your experience as a black person has given you a perspective and helped you understand it better you are free and welcome to explain that, but Again you never you told me how being black has affected your life or how it changes how you see the movie. How am I suppose to see things from your point of view when you're not telling me what it is beyond how you feel about a movie. There are a lot of black people who like the movie as well. I am listening to you I just don't agree with you. I never asked you to defend your experience as a black woman I asked you to defend your stance on a movie, that was all. I even told you at work that you were allowed to dislike the movie, that was right before you said "zootopia is a bad movie and does more harm than good and that's just a fact" and I let the matter drop then you brought it up again by sending me the link, and we had an argument which is a normal part of human interaction. Now you've brought it up again, why? Do you just want an apology? If that's it I'm sorry I upset you. I didn't mean to, I'm sorry I was a bad listener. But why is it so important that you brought it up again, why do you think that I'm being a problem? If I've disrespected you than point out to me where, but it seems you're either upset because I didn't listen, which I've apologised for multiple times now, our your just upset that I argued against you and think you're wrong. You acuss me of being aggressive and having my mind set in stone but you are the one to start this argument for what is now the third time while I let it drop. I'm sorry if I disrespected you, I'm sorry if I was a bad listener, I'm sorry I misinterpreted your action as an invitation to debate, I'm sorry if I was racist and disregard you or your story. However I'm not sorry I defended my beliefs. I think zootopia is a good movie and has good race representation. If you think zootopia is a bad movie and has bad race representation you have every right to think that. But if you want me to believe you then you'll have to debate it with me and you'll have to accept that I'll push back because if you can easily sway me then winning me over wouldn't even mean anything. Look I really don't want to talk about this anymore. I've apologised and explained myself. Please can we let the matter drop already? I just wanted to have a friendly movie debate, this doesn't feel friendly anymore and it's not about the movie. June:http://www.michaelnugent.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/Wondermark-Sea-Lion.png Me: I'm not sure what you're trying to say, am I the sea lion or the woman? That was a little bit ago, I haven't gotten a reply since. I tried posting this to AITA but they have a word limit and also i screwed up and posted it without all the info so everyone said I was the AH without the full story. I do have a bad habit of not listening and being very defensive so I’ll concede that I’m guilty of that but I don’t think I was disrespectful, and at one point she said. “racism doesn't go both ways” Which feels like a big red flag to me. I feel like she was the one who wasn’t listening. How do I relieve tension, put this behind us, and go back to being friends?
(Note: if you were following my earlier posts, I wrote a note at the end of this post explaining why I deleted old posts and what changed) Edit: Can't reply to comments since my account is still flagged as new :\. Thank you everyone for your comments. Edit: Made another post answering questions here.
Test data is untouched during training 10:1:1 train:val:test.
Yes, I consider it "deep" learning from what I learned at my institution. I use LSTMs at one point in my pipeline, feel free to consider that deep or not.
I'll be making daily posts so that people can follow along.
Someone mentioned RL, yes I plan on trying that in the future :). This would require a really clever way to encode the current state parameters. Haven't thought about it too much yet.
Someone mentioned how companies beat earnings 61% anyway, so my model must be useless right? Well if you look at the confusion matrix you can see I balanced classes before training (with some noise). This means that the data had roughly 50/50 beat/miss and had a 58% test accuracy.
TLDR: Not financial advice.
I created a deep learning algorithm trained on 2015-2019 data to predict whether a company will beat earning estimates.
Algorithm has an accuracy of 58%.
I need data and suggestions.
I’ll be making daily posts for upcoming earnings.
Greetings everyone, I’m Bunga, an engineering PhD student at well known university. Like many of you, I developed an interest in trading because of the coronavirus. I lost a lot of money by being greedy and uninformed about how to actually trade options. With all the free time I have with my research slowing down because of the virus, I’ve decided to use what I’m good at (being a nerd, data analytics, and machine learning) to help me make trades. One thing that stuck out to me was how people make bets on earnings reports. As a practitioner of machine learning, we LOVE binary events since the problem can be reduced to a simple binary classification problem. With that being said, I sought out to develop a machine learning algorithm to predict whether a company will beat earnings estimates. I strongly suggest TO NOT USE THIS AS FINANCIAL ADVICE. Please, I could just be a random guy on the internet making things up, and I could have bugs in my code. Just follow along for some fun and don’t make any trades based off of this information 😊 Things other people have tried: A few other projects have tried to do this to some extent [1,2,3], but some are not directly predicting the outcome of the earnings report or have a very small sample size of a few companies. The data This has been the most challenging part of the project. I’m using data for 4,000 common stocks. Open, high, low, close, volume stock data is often free and easy to come by. I use stock data during the quarter (Jan 1 – Mar 31 stock data for Q1 for example) in a time series classifier. I also incorporate “background” data from several ETFs to give the algorithm a feel for how the market is doing overall (hopefully this accounts for bull/bear markets when making predictions). I use sentiment analyses extracted from 10K/10Q documents from the previous quarter as described in . This gets passed to a multilayer perceptron neural network. Data that I’ve tried and doesn’t work to well: Scraping 10K/10Q manually for US GAAP fields like Assets, Cash, StockholdersEquity, etc. Either I’m not very good at processing the data or most of the tables are incomplete, this doesn’t work well. However, I recently came across this amazing API  which will ameliorate most of these problems, and I plan on incorporating this data sometime this week. Results After training on about 34,000 data points, the model achieves a 58% accuracy on the test data. Class 1 is beat earnings, Class 2 is miss earnings.. Scroll to the bottom for the predictions for today’s AMC estimates. https://preview.redd.it/fqapvx2z1tv41.png?width=875&format=png&auto=webp&s=05ea5cae25ee5689edea334f2814e1fa73aa195d Future Directions Things I’m going to try:
Financial twitter sentiment data (need data for this)
Data on options (ToS apparently has stuff that you can use)
Using data closer to the earnings report itself rather than just the data within the quarterly date
A note to the dozen people who were following me before Thank you so much for the early feedback and following. I had a bug in my code which was replicating datapoints, causing my accuracy to be way higher in reality. I’ve modified some things to make the network only output a single value, and I’ve done a lot of bug fixing. Predictions for 4/30/20 AMC: A value closer to 1 means that the company will be more likely to beat earnings estimates. Closer to 0 means the company will be more likely to miss earnings estimates. (People familiar with machine learning will note that neural networks don’t actually output a probability distribution so the values don’t actually represent a confidence).
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